Toledo is a 12 seed in latest ESPN projection, USF is a 10. Toledo losing shouldn't hurt USF. Even if the selection committee added Toledo as an at-large above USF, you're presuming that USF was the last team in, which seems unlikely.
Toledo is 27-3, which is exciting, yes. But Toledo hasn't beaten a top 50 team all year -- they only played one (Dayton) and lost. They have three top 100 wins (USF has seven).
Main thing to root for if you're a Bulls fan is for Delaware (RPI 17) and Green Bay (RPI 24) to win their conference tournaments. If either loses, it takes away an at-large bid from the bubble, which slides USF down a spot.