Could USF Still go to the Gator Bowl?

[Jim Johnson]

Okay. First let me say I have been telling people for weeks there was no way on God's green earth the Gator Bowl would take any Big East team and be stuck taking a Big 12 team the next two years.  I was dead serious about this.

But as the season is playing out, things could be changing.  Maybe I was wrong?

Since the game ended today, I've been doing some full analysis of all the bowl games, eligible teams, and remaining schedules ... and I saw something that could give Bulls fans some hope.

Consider this... and we are only entertaining this discussion assuming USF wins the next two games to finish 9-3.  A USF loss to either Louisville or Pittsburgh would render the rest of this post moot.

1. The "Weak 12"

First the Gator Bowl selects fourth (BCS, Cotton, Holiday, Gator) from the Big 12.  The Gator could select ahead of the Cotton, but only if the Big 12 gets only 1 team in a BCS bowl.  Since most people think the Big 12 will get 2 teams in the BCS, the Gator would have to take the FIFTH best team from the Big 12.

Okay, so two out of Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, and Missouri are going to the BCS.  The other two are going to the Cotton and Holiday bowl.  That means the Gator Bowl gets to choose from Texas Tech who will likely finish 7-5, and four possibly 6-6 teams (Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, the Colorado/Nebraska Winner, and maybe Kansas State if the Wildcats can get to 6-6).

So, the Gator Bowl's Big 12 team is going to be ... AT BEST 7-5 with a losing conference record -- and no where near the Top 25.

Okay. Let's set that aside for a moment.

2. The ACC

The Gator Bowl gets the third team from the ACC (BCS, Chick-Fil-A, Gator).  Next week Va Tech plays UVa for the Coastal Division and BC goes to Clemson for the Atlantic Division.  The losers of those two games would finish, at best, 9-3.  So the Gator Bowl would probably be interested in Clemson or Virginia Tech if UVA wins next week.  Regardless, the ACC team will bring a significant fan base and help sell tickets.

3. The Big Least??

Now, we have weak options for the Gator Bowl in the Big 12.  The Big East isn't that much better.  WVU will probably win out and go to the BCS.  If that happens and USF wins out, then USF, U Conn, and Cincinnati will all be 9-3...

So let's look at the BCS Standings.  Going into today's games, U Conn was #13, USF #28, and Cincy #30.  Cincinnati will likely jump over USF, but not by that much.  U Conn will also fall - but probably not below USF and Cincy.  Let's say the standings next week will be somewhere around #21 U Conn, #24 Cincy, #25 USF.  (Remember, Wisconsin and Illinois were also behind USF and beat higher ranked teams, so USF won't climb that much).

Then if WVU beats both Cincy and U Conn the next two weeks, and USF wins it's games, they will both drop below USF.  USF would climb to, maybe, #15 - #18, while Cincy and U Conn will both be outside the Top 25.

4. Gator Dilemma

Okay. So you're the Gator Bowl Selection Committee.  You are dead certain to have a Top 20 ACC team in either BC, Clemson, UVA, or Va Tech... The Big 12 doesn't have any Top 20 teams available for you; their best available team is a 7-5 Texas Tech team that isn't getting a single vote from anyone.  The only Big East Top 20 team is the South Florida Bulls, who are 9-3, while U Conn and Cincy are probably getting some votes.

Now, none of these three Big East teams travel very well.  USF is in Tampa, barely a four hour drive away, and the fans are starving for a "respectable" bowl game after the mid-season swoon had them checking the rules for getting to Canada.

Who do you take??

[BJ]

Very interesting analysis.

I don't know enough about bowl tie-ins to make and corrections/commentary, so I'll just say it would be great if we could make the Gator Bowl

[bullsmania]

So basically you're saying we have to win and keep waiting to see what else happens.  Thanks a lot Jim. 

[South_Florida_Flip]

As much as I hate saying this, if I am on the Gator Bowl selection committee I bite the bullet and take the Big 12 selection this year. The reason I do this is that I still have 1 of 2 years where I have the chance to get WVU, Louisville, Rutgers, or ND. Those 4 programs would travel well.

[USF Colby]

Wait, the Gator Bowl only gets the fifth Big 12 team? Wow, so they would completely miss out on Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, and Kansas, that hurts. So maybe they would pick a Big East team, and the obvious selection would be us. There is hope! We need to win out though.

[South_Florida_Flip]

I'd still worry about Rutgers creeping into the mix because they will travel well.

[Guest]

I'd still worry about Rutgers creeping into the mix because they will travel well.

True. Rutgers could easily beat Pitt and L'ville and finish 8-4 overall and 4-3 in the Big East... but still outside the Top 25.

[BullsFanInTX]

As much as I hate saying this, if I am on the Gator Bowl selection committee I bite the bullet and take the Big 12 selection this year. The reason I do this is that I still have 1 of 2 years where I have the chance to get WVU, Louisville, Rutgers, or ND. Those 4 programs would travel well.

And take Who???

Texas Tech??  How many fans do you think they will bring.

aTm and Neb??  Possibly, but at 6-6 over a 9-3 USF?

Col or Ok St, unlikely.

Do I think USF will go to Gator.  No, but based on an analysis, it is still possible, although unlikely.

[SANJAY]

If WVU wins out and we win out, I think we end up in El paso.  We will be the second highest ranked Big East team, and the Sun Bowl may not expect any Big East team to travel that well there.  I would prefer Charlotte as the airfare to El Paso is 500 per person.

[Guest]

If WVU wins out and we win out, I think we end up in El paso.  We will be the second highest ranked Big East team, and the Sun Bowl may not expect any Big East team to travel that well there.  I would prefer Charlotte as the airfare to El Paso is 500 per person.

Rutgers sold out their Texas Bowl allotment... so the Sun Bowl might easily take RU over USF.