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Analytics is down on the Bulls

LongTimeWatcher
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LongTimeWatcher

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Posted

From The Athletic 

American loaded with potential Cinderellas

Florida Atlantic Owls (Underdog Rating: 43.4)

SMU Mustangs (UR: 40.5)

North Texas Mean Green (UR: 26.5)

Memphis Tigers (UR: 21)

South Florida Bulls (UR: 9.6)

The first-place team in the American is South Florida, which owns a 16-1 conference record and No. 24 national ranking. But Slingshot sees their level of success as a fluke: Our model’s basic power ratings peg the Bulls as just the fifth-best team and sixth-best Bracket Breaker in the conference. That feels like a harsh judgment for a team that has won 21 of its last 22 games, but the numbers are the numbers. And KenPom.com agrees — the Bulls are 26th in the nation in “luck” (an indication that their underlying metrics don’t support their gaudy record). USF’s Underdog Rating is just 9.6: Although the Bulls take an above-average number of threes and force turnovers on 18.8 percent of opponents’ possessions, they are hampered by poor rebounding at both ends.

OK, wait a minute. What this analysis says is that the Bulls got “lucky” this season. It ranks four teams ahead of USF that we already beat. 23-5 ain't lucky. A 15-game winning streak ain’t lucky. A 16-1 record in AAC ain’t lucky. Hey, Athletic, get your nose out of the calculator and actually watch the games. USF might not win the Conference tournament, but they are genuinely good — not lucky.

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Bob Loblaw
Bob Loblaw

This analytics stuff is nauseating. Apparently, winning means absolutely nothing. 

Cat941
Cat941

Dang.  Just like in CFB.  Winning isn't everything if it doesn't fit their narrative.  

hm101
hm101

I can't find one single win where we won by a fluke shot at the buzzer. 

Bob Loblaw Community Regular

Bob Loblaw

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This analytics stuff is nauseating. Apparently, winning means absolutely nothing. 

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Bull Gooner Community Regular

Bull Gooner

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I’m with Mike Wilbon on analytics: “hocus pocus junk.”

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ForestBull Toro Magnifico

ForestBull

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Lol these teams that USF beat head to head are actually better than USF because of a computers...

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Cat941 Toro Magnifico

Cat941

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48 minutes ago, Bob Loblaw said:

This analytics stuff is nauseating. Apparently, winning means absolutely nothing. 

Dang.  Just like in CFB.  Winning isn't everything if it doesn't fit their narrative.  

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hm101 Toro Magnifico

hm101

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I can't find one single win where we won by a fluke shot at the buzzer. 

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Triple B Toro Magnifico

Triple B

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Posted
3 hours ago, LongTimeWatcher said:

From The Athletic 

American loaded with potential Cinderellas

Florida Atlantic Owls (Underdog Rating: 43.4)

SMU Mustangs (UR: 40.5)

North Texas Mean Green (UR: 26.5)

Memphis Tigers (UR: 21)

South Florida Bulls (UR: 9.6)

The first-place team in the American is South Florida, which owns a 16-1 conference record and No. 24 national ranking. But Slingshot sees their level of success as a fluke: Our model’s basic power ratings peg the Bulls as just the fifth-best team and sixth-best Bracket Breaker in the conference. That feels like a harsh judgment for a team that has won 21 of its last 22 games, but the numbers are the numbers. And KenPom.com agrees — the Bulls are 26th in the nation in “luck” (an indication that their underlying metrics don’t support their gaudy record). USF’s Underdog Rating is just 9.6: Although the Bulls take an above-average number of threes and force turnovers on 18.8 percent of opponents’ possessions, they are hampered by poor rebounding at both ends.

Just when you thought you couldn't see any dumber "analytics" ...... just luck that we happened to beat all 4 of those "real" Cinderellas, 2 at their place. ****, sure hope the Committee has a firmer grasp of things.

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USFBulls12 Toro Magnifico

USFBulls12

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The real great Cinderellas are the teams that most people don’t see coming. On paper according to all of these geniuses we’re nothings and won’t ever beat the almighty North Texas, Memphis, FAU, or SMU. Oh wait a minute… but it’ll make it that much greater when we take March Madness by storm as the underdog taking down Goliath. 

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olafberserker Toro Magnifico

olafberserker

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My lord y'all are a pitiful bunch with low self esteem.   From what I understand, this model is nothing more of a predictor of NCAA tourney upsets and therefore "bracket busters".   It's not a **** ranking system that says we are the 5th best team in the conference or that we would lose to North Texas or whoever.  Simply looking at the statistics/metrics and predicting who has the best chance of busting brackets if they get into the dance.    From one article I kind of saw (I'm not a subscriber) it was doing pretty well back in 2021.   No idea how it has done since

But come one man.  Have a little self confidence and stop thinking everyone is out to get us

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Cat941 Toro Magnifico

Cat941

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23 minutes ago, olafberserker said:

 

But come one man.  Have a little self confidence and stop thinking everyone is out to get us

I thought we were going to #StayParanoid (or isn't that a slogan for the MBB team?)

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