Conference realignment "Rumors" "tweets" "etc"

[UCF_rustbucket]

18 minutes ago, GoBulls84 said:

They were looking at $30M per year with most of their "premium" teams still in the fold (after USC/UCLA announced they were leaving). Maybe they get $15M, but I can't see it being much more than that. There's a reason Wazzou and the Beavs were left out in the cold: the media companies just don't value their brand like that. Adding an entire G5 conference isn't gonna change that, but at least they'll be stable.

I think $15M is still pretty high if we math it out. 

 

A 14 team conference paying $15M each is $210M a year for the whole conference.

The 12 team MWC currently gets around $4M a team, so $48M a year total. 

Subtract $210 - $48 and that's the value that OSU/WSU are adding. Which is $162M, so each of the PAC leftovers would need to bring $81M/yr in tv value each to raise the existing MWC deal to $15M/yr per team. 

If we're generous and say they're worth the $30M ESPN first offered the PAC, then we have $48M + $60M. Divide that by 14 and we have $7.7M for each team in the new PAC/MWC.

[GoBulls84]

20 minutes ago, UCF_rustbucket said:

I think $15M is still pretty high if we math it out. 

 

A 14 team conference paying $15M each is $210M a year for the whole conference.

The 12 team MWC currently gets around $4M a team, so $48M a year total. 

Subtract $210 - $48 and that's the value that OSU/WSU are adding. Which is $162M, so each of the PAC leftovers would need to bring $81M/yr in tv value each to raise the existing MWC deal to $15M/yr per team. 

If we're generous and say they're worth the $30M ESPN first offered the PAC, then we have $48M + $60M. Divide that by 14 and we have $7.7M for each team in the new PAC/MWC.

Yeah, that's why I said maybe. I don't see them getting $15M per when the MW wasn't getting close to that and the real value from the P12 is already gone. For tradition's sake, I hope they can keep the Pac-__ moniker alive, but I think people are kidding themselves if they think the next long-term contract the Pac gets (assuming they land one) will be demonstrably higher than the AAC. And joining that conference would mean any marginal increase in payout would be offset by increased travel costs to send all our athletic teams out west.

[UCF_rustbucket]

9 minutes ago, GoBulls84 said:

Yeah, that's why I said maybe. I don't see them getting $15M per when the MW wasn't getting close to that and the real value from the P12 is already gone. For tradition's sake, I hope they can keep the Pac-__ moniker alive, but I think people are kidding themselves if they think the next long-term contract the Pac gets (assuming they land one) will be demonstrably higher than the AAC. And joining that conference would mean any marginal increase in payout would be offset by increased travel costs to send all our athletic teams out west.

Agreed. The PAC branding is important but anyway we slice it, most of the traditional teams are gone and so is the star power. This is why I don't think USF or Memphis fans need to fuss about being invited to the new PAC. It'll be a slightly higher earning west coast counterpart to the AAC at best. Like you said, not enough to offset travel costs plus the exit fee. Better off working towards an ACC or Big 12 invite.

[79 Bull]

Overall question...how big will Px conference membership go after 2024 or 2025 season?  18, 20, 22, 24??

2025 committed status:

Big 12 - 16 teams

ACC - 17 teams (without any departures)

Big Ten - 18 teams

SEC - 16 teams

[Mike Stuben]

41 minutes ago, 79 Bull said:

Overall question...how big will Px conference membership go after 2024 or 2025 season?  18, 20, 22, 24??

2025 committed status:

Big 12 - 16 teams

ACC - 17 teams (without any departures)

Big Ten - 18 teams

SEC - 16 teams

I think they settle in around 18 teams each .... unless, one of them ceases to exist (ACC or Big 12), then the 3 remaining could end up larger. 

If they go to 18, then I like our odds, as that means up to 5 more teams get the bump up.

[Rocky Style]

Until then I think we are playing Tulsa and Northeast Louisiana A&M.

[Bull Matrix]

Big Swaimy dreaming again…

[belgianbull]

3 minutes ago, Bull Matrix said:

Big Swaimy dreaming again…

It would be to our benefit that this doesn't happen within the next two years. Getting the OCS construction going, compete for AAC titles in both men's basketball and football, and being ranked in the top 25 would be helpful to our case when the AAC or Big 12 look for replacements.

If it happened right now I would be worried that Memphis, Tulane, Boise State, WSU, OSU and San Diego State would be ahead of us.

[belgianbull]

6 hours ago, GoBulls84 said:

Yeah, that's why I said maybe. I don't see them getting $15M per when the MW wasn't getting close to that and the real value from the P12 is already gone. For tradition's sake, I hope they can keep the Pac-__ moniker alive, but I think people are kidding themselves if they think the next long-term contract the Pac gets (assuming they land one) will be demonstrably higher than the AAC. And joining that conference would mean any marginal increase in payout would be offset by increased travel costs to send all our athletic teams out west.

Is it really all about conference payout? Personally even if the money is similar, or even a bit less due to travel costs I still think the amount of fan excitement and prestige would be much greater in a PAC/MW/AAC conference versus a depleted AAC.   Being in a conference with Boise State, San Diego State, Fresno State , WSU, OSU, Air Force, Memphis ,Tulane, and Navy would make so much sense and would be beneficial for USF no matter the payout.

Edited November 20, 2023 by belgianbull

[Cat941]

34 minutes ago, belgianbull said:

Is it really all about conference payout? Personally even if the money is similar, or even a bit less due to travel costs I still think the amount of fan excitement and prestige would be much greater in a PAC/MW/AAC conference versus a depleted AAC.   Being in a conference with Boise State, San Diego State, Fresno State , WSU, OSU, Air Force, Memphis ,Tulane, and Navy would make so much sense and would be beneficial for USF no matter the payout.

I hear you on that.  A bit of a conflict of interest.  We want to make more revenue, have interesting matchups, have not too terrible travel and avoid promoting our competition.  Realignment (even if it's laterally in the G5) would keep us in the discussion.  However, if we're left behind again, the implication is that we're worthless and we get further dragged down.  But the silver lining with staying in the AAC is that we are not facing that big travel burden and we're in a guaranteed media contract.