Conference realignment "Rumors" "tweets" "etc"

[TallyBull]

Mandel's scenario that everyone's all worked up about ignores several facts and so shouldn't be taken too seriously:

• TV deals are all about markets over production/success (best candidates have both, but having both isn't absolutely required). That's why we've got UNT and Rice (and to a certain extent UTSA) in our conference. It would be foolish to come out as far as New Orleans for Tulane, the nation's 51st TV media market, and not a little further to Tampa, the nation's 13th TV media market (and unlike New Orleans, growing quickly).
• With the exception of Tulane and Memphis, he includes only MWC teams. I didn't read the article because it's behind a paywall, but based on the excerpt, he didn't really think or talk about exit fees. The MWC's teams are about double what the AAC's are (estimated $38 m vs. $18 m). 

I think Mandel was just throwing ideas out there but not really thinking through what's wise/feasible. I doubt the rebuilt PAC ever happens, but if it does, I expect it to start with 6-8 AAC teams in the near-term, which are more affordable if the conference and/or TV partner wishes to help them get out of their current conferences, then expand to include top MWC teams in 2-3 years, ultimately forming western and eastern divisions. 

Also, any GOR signed with a rebuilt PAC should be short term unless the TV contract is minimum $20 m/year. That would put USF in a far better financial position while we wait for the FSU/ACC issue to resolve. 

Just my two cents.

Edited September 6, 2023 by TallyBull

[Sellular1]

21 hours ago, Cat941 said:

 

Cat, thanks for continuing to post these types of tweets. 

[Jim Johnson]

1 hour ago, TallyBull said:

Mandel's scenario that everyone's all worked up about ignores several facts and so shouldn't be taken too seriously:

• TV deals are all about markets over production/success (best candidates have both, but having both isn't absolutely required). That's why we've got UNT and Rice (and to a certain extent UTSA) in our conference. It would be foolish to come out as far as New Orleans for Tulane, the nation's 51st TV media market, and not a little further to Tampa, the nation's 13th TV media market (and unlike New Orleans, growing quickly).
• With the exception of Tulane and Memphis, he includes only MWC teams. I didn't read the article because it's behind a paywall, but based on the excerpt, he didn't really think or talk about exit fees. The MWC's teams are about double what the AAC's are (estimated $38 m vs. $18 m). 

I think Mandel was just throwing ideas out there but not really thinking through what's wise/feasible. I doubt the rebuilt PAC ever happens, but if it does, I expect it to start with 6-8 AAC teams in the near-term, which are more affordable if the conference and/or TV partner wishes to help them get out of their current conferences, then expand to include top MWC teams in 2-3 years, ultimately forming western and eastern divisions. 

Also, any GOR signed with a rebuilt PAC should be short term unless the TV contract is minimum $20 m/year. That would put USF in a far better financial position while we wait for the FSU/ACC issue to resolve. 

Just my two cents.

There are some really good reasons why the PAC 2 should rebuild, and Mandel laid them out:

• The PAC 12 gets $79 million from the CFP for the next two years.  The AAC gets about $20 million.  It would require a unanimous vote to change that, and we can assume the PAC would oppose that. HA!
• The PAC is written into the NCAA bylaws as being an Autonomous conference.  That requires amendment by the full NCAA, not sure how many would support that change.
• The PAC still has a contract with the Rose Bowl, and after this season it's not part of the CFP.  ESPN pays more than $80 million for that game alone - and PAC gets a share of that.
• Plus ... the PAC brand is still stronger than the MWC brand.
• Not mentioned: PAC has about $60+ million in NCAA Units available that will be paid out over a few years; those are not always transferable.

Mandel also wrote this:

Quote

But the schools’ lawyers and accountants will need to figure out fairly quickly how much money is truly in the league’s war chest, because they might need it to help cover some hefty exit fees. Mountain West schools would owe a prohibitive $34 million were they to leave in time for next school year, $17 million after that. The AAC’s exit fee is a more modest $10 million but with a 27-month departure notice.

That’s a lot of billable hours.

 

[Rocky Style]

1 hour ago, TallyBull said:

Also, any GOR signed with a rebuilt PAC should be short term unless the TV contract is minimum $20 m/year. That would put USF in a far better financial position while we wait for the FSU/ACC issue to resolve. 

Yep so take an Apple TV raise and buyout later to get the hot east coast regional play.

I'm sure Bulls Nation can shell out to invade the Beavers for a few years.

[Rocky Style]

1 hour ago, Cpa_bull1990 said:

USF Athletics is such a dumpster fire!

I would say we put out the fire in the dumpster and have installed cameras and a motion sensor activated light.  But we are planning to push the dumpster away.

[TallyBull]

27 minutes ago, Jim Johnson said:

There are some really good reasons why the PAC 2 should rebuild, and Mandel laid them out:

• The PAC 12 gets $79 million from the CFP for the next two years.  The AAC gets about $20 million.  It would require a unanimous vote to change that, and we can assume the PAC would oppose that. HA!
• The PAC is written into the NCAA bylaws as being an Autonomous conference.  That requires amendment by the full NCAA, not sure how many would support that change.
• The PAC still has a contract with the Rose Bowl, and after this season it's not part of the CFP.  ESPN pays more than $80 million for that game alone - and PAC gets a share of that.
• Plus ... the PAC brand is still stronger than the MWC brand.
• Not mentioned: PAC has about $60+ million in NCAA Units available that will be paid out over a few years; those are not always transferable.

Mandel also wrote this:

 

Good stuff, thanks for posting it. Based upon that info:

• Invite six AAC schools this year to form a basic 8-school conference for 2024, at about $23 m in exit fees per school (UC, Houston, and C. Florida left for $18 m but with two years' notice)
• Invite four MWC schools next year to form western/eastern divisions for 2025, at $17 m in exit fees school

Going to need on average $20 m/school ($200 m to get to a 12-team conference). But responsibility for that full $20 m wouldn't have to fall entirely on the PAC. As a condition of joining what is (at least temporarily) a P5 conference, the PAC could negotiate with everyone involved - school assumes a portion, PAC assumes a portion, and a portion is built into the TV media partner contract. Or, if the contract is strong enough (say, $15 m/year per school), a school like USF could take out a loan and pay it back in 3-4 years if it throws its extra $7 m/year at it, then enjoy the full amount afterwards plus other CFP revenue. 

Point being, I don't believe the exit fees really prevent anything. And the PAC could, in fact, focus on MWC schools if it wanted to. But the trend seems to be going toward national conferences, and the rebuilt PAC will likely go that direction if necessary to maximize its TV money. I think that means more than two AAC schools. 

Would take bold moves and involve lots of moving parts (a motivated media partner, and who knows if that even exists). But not impossible. Oliver Luck could probably get it done.

Edited September 6, 2023 by TallyBull

[USFBULL_08]

[Grateful Dad]

Excellent.  Just need AF and we get the Commander's Cup along with the Army-Navy game. I catch those games, anyway, when they play.

[Cat941]

 

 

[Outlaw]

5 minutes ago, Cat941 said:

 

 

If they win the ACC conference game and go to the CFP they will get more money then they would make here. Big Gamble, but their AD and Coach are  going all in  to put them in a spot to compete at the big boys table. I am sure they still get some money from the ACC for travel and other athletic expenses. Seems a lot better move for the future of their football program then attaching themselves to UNT, Rice, UAB, Fau, and Charlotte long term.

Edited September 6, 2023 by Outlaw