ESPN Article: Full list of odds to win the 2017-18 CFB title game

[Breedwell]

10 minutes ago, NavyUSFGuy said:

I don't really understand half the people on this board. Some people are acting like there is zero chance that USF can make the playoffs which simply isn't true at all. 2017's SoS is going to make it more unlikely than usual, but an AAC team with a decent SoS and some other pieces falling into place makes it a possibility for sure.

I'm definitely not saying we go undefeated, but if we do, I'd give it about a 20% chance of making it in. That mostly depends on 3 things.

1. Illinois having a good year (which won't happen)

2. About 3-4 AAC teams making a respectable ranking, which isn't impossible

3. 3 or less 1 loss P5 teams

I very much believe if at least two of these 3 things happen, we will make it. Though I realize this is a ton of "ifs", starting with the undefeated if

I mean what happened with 2007?  Teams lost, we won. Yes, we had 2 top 25 wins (including #5 WVU), but teams lost, and we jumped them as we kept winning. 

If we're already ranked from the get go, we're going to get a bump or two up if we keep winning and other teams lose. To a point where we'll reach that top 10 or so where, if they play each other they may not get bumped much and we'll have to depend on back to back losses or something. Like with TAMU this past year or Tennessee. 

[MMW]

1 hour ago, Breedwell said:

I mean what happened with 2007?  Teams lost, we won. Yes, we had 2 top 25 wins (including #5 WVU), but teams lost, and we jumped them as we kept winning. 

If we're already ranked from the get go, we're going to get a bump or two up if we keep winning and other teams lose. To a point where we'll reach that top 10 or so where, if they play each other they may not get bumped much and we'll have to depend on back to back losses or something. Like with TAMU this past year or Tennessee. 

That was a perfect storm and at that moment in time we deserved that ranking.  

I think something bad happened after the UCF game but I blocked it out.  

[raptorcj]

Yep, 300:1 sounds about right to me. It's slightly worse odds than WBB beating UConn, but not much.

[Triple B]

5 hours ago, NavyUSFGuy said:

I don't really understand half the people on this board. Some people are acting like there is zero chance that USF can make the playoffs which simply isn't true at all.

You are correct. Simply, it isn't true. If something is possible, no matter how improbable, there's always a chance ... but I think your 1 in 5 chances if we go undefeated is ridiculously high, though.

[GaUSFBull]

5 hours ago, Triple B said:

Bear definitely has a flair for the obvious.

[Triple B]

2 hours ago, GaUSFBull said:

Bear definitely has a flair for the obvious.

Did spell check edit out an li there?

[Gismo]

If we average 50 points a game and allow an average of 10 opponent points per game, and we are undefeated, we have a chance. I don't think it happens. 

[Rocky Style]

18 hours ago, JoeB said:

Fans won't have anything to do with it.  Our SOS will be the reason even if we go undefeated.

It's hard to deny the SOS is terrible. I think Houston would have maybe gotten in this year if they had gone undefeated.

[Bear]

15 hours ago, NavyUSFGuy said:

I don't really understand half the people on this board. Some people are acting like there is zero chance that USF can make the playoffs which simply isn't true at all. 2017's SoS is going to make it more unlikely than usual, but an AAC team with a decent SoS and some other pieces falling into place makes it a possibility for sure.

I'm definitely not saying we go undefeated, but if we do, I'd give it about a 20% chance of making it in. That mostly depends on 3 things.

1. Illinois having a good year (which won't happen)

2. About 3-4 AAC teams making a respectable ranking, which isn't impossible

3. 3 or less 1 loss P5 teams

I very much believe if at least two of these 3 things happen, we will make it. Though I realize this is a ton of "ifs", starting with the undefeated if

Zero chance for USF? No.. ZERO chance for the G5

 

There is ZERO margin of error - and good luck getting a good schedule (AAC teams to risky for the top P5 teams)

Edited January 12, 2017 by Bear

[Gismo]

We don't have the schedule this season unless our margins of victory averages 40.