Dream Scenario - Would It Matter?

[USFBulls12]

Here is a hypothetical, crazy scenario to feed the trolls on this rainy Friday in Tampa. Let's face it, our men's basketball isn't one of the most talented teams in recent memory to say the least. But we do have 1 good win this season to highlight: SMU at the Sun Dome after losing by 17 points to them just 2 weeks earlier...I guess that's something. We are coming off another close loss to now #7 Cincinnati (lost by 7 at home and by 5 on the road) and then almost blew it at UCF, but didn't.

 

In trying to find the most unlikely but most perfect way to turn around and close out this miserable season, I direct your attention to the last 8 games of the season. With our current record being 12-11 overall and 3-7 in the AAC, my question is: Would winning out the entire rest of the season put us as a NCAAT bubble team candidate? (Feeding the trolls here...)

 

Realistically, yet unrealistically, we would sit at 20-11 overall and 11-7 AAC which would include future wins over currently ranked teams in #22 Connecticut (Road), #14 Louisville (Road), and #22 Connecticut (Home) again.

 

In addition, in this scenario it should also include 2 wins in the AAC tournament game with the loss that kicks USF from the tourney against Cincy. So actually, the overall record would stand then at 22-11.

 

However, we have also lost 11 times this season, many of which were bad/ horrid losses and blowouts against more talented teams.

 

Horrid losses vs. Detroit (10-14), Santa Clara (13-12),

Bad losses vs. Houston (11-12), Mississippi State (13-9)

Understandable but regrettable losses vs. then #19 Cincinnati (22-2), then #13 Cincinnati (22-2)

Blowout losses (by 15+ points) vs. then #5 Oklahoma State, then #18 Memphis (17-5), SMU (18-5), then #12 Louisville (19-4), then #23 Memphis (17-5).

 

Would upsetting 3 ranked teams and ending the season on a 9 game winning streak show such improvement that USF gets on the NCAAT bubble?

Would an overall win percentage of 0.645 and an AAC win percentage of .611 make any difference come NCAAT time?

Or would it simply secure a decent seed for USF in the NIT?

 

Disclaimer: I in no way believe in the possibility of this scenario and have posted this purely for discussion and entertainment purposes. Please discuss nicely. Go Bulls!

[Breedwell]

The SMU win, Louisville win, and two UCONN wins would make up a nice portfolio. Santa Clara would be a bad loss, but, beating Louisville late in the season would probably be the same and have the same weight as the win against Louisville (on their senior night) a few years ago (when we went to the tourney).

 

I feel like 20 wins with those victories would give us a last 4 in possibility. Kinda like that year. 

 

Otherwise, we'd probably earn a solid NIT seed. 

[Triple B]

If you're going to dream, just dream we win the AAC tourney and take out the guesswork .... 

[hbryan]

Here is a hypothetical, crazy scenario to feed the trolls on this rainy Friday in Tampa. Let's face it, our men's basketball isn't one of the most talented teams in recent memory to say the least. But we do have 1 good win this season to highlight: SMU at the Sun Dome after losing by 17 points to them just 2 weeks earlier...I guess that's something. We are coming off another close loss to now #7 Cincinnati (lost by 7 at home and by 5 on the road) and then almost blew it at UCF, but didn't.

 

In trying to find the most unlikely but most perfect way to turn around and close out this miserable season, I direct your attention to the last 8 games of the season. With our current record being 12-11 overall and 3-7 in the AAC, my question is: Would winning out the entire rest of the season put us as a NCAAT bubble team candidate? (Feeding the trolls here...)

 

Realistically, yet unrealistically, we would sit at 20-11 overall and 11-7 AAC which would include future wins over currently ranked teams in #22 Connecticut (Road), #14 Louisville (Road), and #22 Connecticut (Home) again.

 

In addition, in this scenario it should also include 2 wins in the AAC tournament game with the loss that kicks USF from the tourney against Cincy. So actually, the overall record would stand then at 22-11.

 

However, we have also lost 11 times this season, many of which were bad/ horrid losses and blowouts against more talented teams.

 

Horrid losses vs. Detroit (10-14), Santa Clara (13-12),

Bad losses vs. Houston (11-12), Mississippi State (13-9)

Understandable but regrettable losses vs. then #19 Cincinnati (22-2), then #13 Cincinnati (22-2)

Blowout losses (by 15+ points) vs. then #5 Oklahoma State, then #18 Memphis (17-5), SMU (18-5), then #12 Louisville (19-4), then #23 Memphis (17-5).

 

Would upsetting 3 ranked teams and ending the season on a 9 game winning streak show such improvement that USF gets on the NCAAT bubble?

Would an overall win percentage of 0.645 and an AAC win percentage of .611 make any difference come NCAAT time?

Or would it simply secure a decent seed for USF in the NIT?

 

Disclaimer: I in no way believe in the possibility of this scenario and have posted this purely for discussion and entertainment purposes. Please discuss nicely. Go Bulls!

 

[USFBulls12]

If you're going to dream, just dream we win the AAC tourney and take out the guesswork .... 

 

HAHA fair enough. That is probably the "easiest" path to the tournament. Since it's necessary to win out the last 9 games, I think getting hot and winning the tournament is the only chance. Even those chances are slim to none, probably close to a 2-3% chance at this point

Edited February 8, 2014 by USFBulls12

[USFBulls12]

 

Here is a hypothetical, crazy scenario to feed the trolls on this rainy Friday in Tampa. Let's face it, our men's basketball isn't one of the most talented teams in recent memory to say the least. But we do have 1 good win this season to highlight: SMU at the Sun Dome after losing by 17 points to them just 2 weeks earlier...I guess that's something. We are coming off another close loss to now #7 Cincinnati (lost by 7 at home and by 5 on the road) and then almost blew it at UCF, but didn't.

 

In trying to find the most unlikely but most perfect way to turn around and close out this miserable season, I direct your attention to the last 8 games of the season. With our current record being 12-11 overall and 3-7 in the AAC, my question is: Would winning out the entire rest of the season put us as a NCAAT bubble team candidate? (Feeding the trolls here...)

 

Realistically, yet unrealistically, we would sit at 20-11 overall and 11-7 AAC which would include future wins over currently ranked teams in #22 Connecticut (Road), #14 Louisville (Road), and #22 Connecticut (Home) again.

 

In addition, in this scenario it should also include 2 wins in the AAC tournament game with the loss that kicks USF from the tourney against Cincy. So actually, the overall record would stand then at 22-11.

 

However, we have also lost 11 times this season, many of which were bad/ horrid losses and blowouts against more talented teams.

 

Horrid losses vs. Detroit (10-14), Santa Clara (13-12),

Bad losses vs. Houston (11-12), Mississippi State (13-9)

Understandable but regrettable losses vs. then #19 Cincinnati (22-2), then #13 Cincinnati (22-2)

Blowout losses (by 15+ points) vs. then #5 Oklahoma State, then #18 Memphis (17-5), SMU (18-5), then #12 Louisville (19-4), then #23 Memphis (17-5).

 

Would upsetting 3 ranked teams and ending the season on a 9 game winning streak show such improvement that USF gets on the NCAAT bubble?

Would an overall win percentage of 0.645 and an AAC win percentage of .611 make any difference come NCAAT time?

Or would it simply secure a decent seed for USF in the NIT?

 

Disclaimer: I in no way believe in the possibility of this scenario and have posted this purely for discussion and entertainment purposes. Please discuss nicely. Go Bulls!

 

 

 

Nice.

[bcgruber]

With that scenario yes we would make the tourney but I'm with 3B  not gonna happen.  We match up well with SMU and Cinci and for that matter even though we didn't show it I think we matchup well with Memphis.  Uconn is the type of team we should really struggle with so beating them will really surprise me.  We belong in the 6-7 slot in regards to the conference and that is where I Think we will end up.

 

Hope your Dream comes true and that's what all true Bulls fans should be cheering for.  GO BULLS

Edited February 8, 2014 by bcgruber

[NCBull]

Chances slim to none. But I don't think it's totally insane to say we could win the AAC tourney. Maybe 60-1 odds at best...

[charsibb]

Major facepalm

[GoBulls84]

Even if we did win out up to the AAC tourney, I'd think the blowout losses to teams with a pulse put us in a bad place for tourney consideration, especially with the other losses to Detroit and Santa Clara