If Big East gets act together, big TV deal still in reach

[macphisto]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/colleges/if-big-east-can-get-its-act-together-huge-tv-deal-could-still-be-in-leagues-grasp/2011/10/31/gIQAVIEIaM_story.html

Key graphs:

“Even as we sit here today, as gloomy as it may appear, the Big East can still have a nice outcome for a variety of reasons. Not the least of which is supply and demand,” said Chris Bevilacqua, a New York-based sports media consultant who helped the Pac-12 make its landmark $3 billion television deal with Fox and ESPN earlier this year."

ESPN tried to get the Big East to sign an extension this year, reportedly for about $1 billion over nine years. That deal would have gotten the Big East in the ballpark of what the other BCS AQ leagues are getting, but not close enough so it was rejected.

If the Big East survives, and ESPN wants it back — and ESPN can never get enough college football — it will now have to compete with Fox, NBC and its cable entity, Versus, and CBS, which is looking to build its cable channel, CBS Sports Network.

Plus, there are cable distributors such as Time Warner, Comcast and Cox that are delving more into providing content.

But the fact is that the future of the BCS, like everything else in college football, is up in the air.

Its contracts run through 2013 and beyond that there are no benchmarks to determine which conferences will be automatic qualifiers — there’s even a chance there will be no BCS in 2014.

If there is, there’s a good chance TV ratings and market sizes will be just as important — if not more important — than winning percentages and bowl appearances when it comes to deciding who gets in.

And if the Big East is left out after being one of the original six leagues that helped craft the BCS, maybe its lawyers can persuade the leaders of the other AQ leagues — especially the ones who poached Big East teams — to think again.

Been saying a lot of this stuff for awhile. ESPN didn't want the BE to get to open market because the cost would go up - AND IT STILL WILL IF WE KEEP IT TOGETHER. As the TV analyst that negotiated the PAC-12 deal said, it's supply and demand.

FACT: The Big East is the only game still in town not locked in a TV deal for about a decade or more.

FACT: All four networks and their cable arms want more programming.

FACT: Bidding drives prices up, not down.

Adding teams to get to 12 also gives the league more games to sell in tiered packages. The league can also split its basketball off from football like the Big Ten did to get more money. Our ESPN deal expires after next season and our second tier deal with CBS ends the next year (and that one will see a massive increase because it was paltry).

In the end, the ACC will be left with the lowest amount of TV revenue by far and those schools will fully realize how badly they were played by ESPN. That is, IF the Big East can stay together in some form.

[Joe]

I just have a hard time believing the Big East featuring Boise State, USF, and Houston will have a bigger TV deal than the ACC featuring Florida State, Virigina Tech, and Miami

The fact that the market is open helps, and I really do hope I'm wrong, but it's tough to look at our lineup and disagree. We're selling programs that other conferences struggled to sell...

[TrujilloBull2013]

I just have a hard time believing the Big East featuring Boise State, USF, and Houston will have a bigger TV deal than the ACC featuring Florida State, Virigina Tech, and Miami The fact that the market is open helps, and I really do hope I'm wrong, but it's tough to look at our lineup and disagree. We're selling programs that other conferences struggled to sell...

u forget the national audiences of Navy and Air Force.

[usfbullrider]

But the major hurdle is AQ status. ESPN is controlling who gets AQ status at the moment due to it's exclusive contract with the BCS that goes through the next round of renewal in 2013.

Basically, what it looks like is the Big East is going to have to threaten a law suit to maintain it's AQ status at that time. I do believe if the Big East gets the teams that it wants and is guranteed AQ status, it will get a nice TV contract but it's the least of the BE's worries at this moment.

[Joe]

I just have a hard time believing the Big East featuring Boise State, USF, and Houston will have a bigger TV deal than the ACC featuring Florida State, Virigina Tech, and Miami The fact that the market is open helps, and I really do hope I'm wrong, but it's tough to look at our lineup and disagree. We're selling Lprograms that other conferences struggled to sell...

u forget the national audiences of Navy and Air Force.

They're big draws, but they aren't anything to bank the league on, neither team has helped the Mountain West (who has its own network) or makes that much as an Indy selling their own right (Navy-CBS deal). We get BYU in the mix, we could pull ACC numbers ($13 mil).

[Joe]

But the major hurdle is AQ status. ESPN is controlling who gets AQ status at the moment due to it's exclusive contract with the BCS that goes through the next round of renewal in 2013.

Basically, what it looks like is the Big East is going to have to threaten a law suit to maintain it's AQ status at that time. I do believe if the Big East gets the teams that it wants and is guranteed AQ status, it will get a nice TV contract but it's the least of the BE's worries at this moment.

AQ status will be fine. It's the TV numbers we should be concerned about. It's the reason none of the current members will commit, they know the deals are a lot better elsewhere...

[macphisto]

But the major hurdle is AQ status. ESPN is controlling who gets AQ status at the moment due to it's exclusive contract with the BCS that goes through the next round of renewal in 2013.

Basically, what it looks like is the Big East is going to have to threaten a law suit to maintain it's AQ status at that time. I do believe if the Big East gets the teams that it wants and is guranteed AQ status, it will get a nice TV contract but it's the least of the BE's worries at this moment.

But the renewal will likely be controlled by whoever wins the bid. And ESPN will likely have NBC, ABC, and Fox bidding. NBC is in 4th place and desperate to climb out of it with their new Comcast overlords. They will swing for the fences.

That's why ESPN has likely been trying to undermine us. By rejecting their offer, the conference is going to the open market. Other conferences have gotten deals with Fox and CBS. NBC wants in.

How strong is ESPN for college football if they end up only having the ACC exclusively and no BCS? That's the very real possibility they are facing. In two years, the landscape could change dramatically with ESPN falling behind its competition.

And ESPN's big problem is they haven't been able to outbid the competition lately. They lost the Big Ten Network. They couldn't secure the PAC-12. The Big XII's second tier was too rich for their blood. They only got the ACC because they jumped on the first offer and will probably end up making the least amount per year of any major conference by $100M or more.

ESPN thinks it can just get what it wants. With an open market and each tier sold separately, there's big money coming for the conference if it sticks together - money on par with the other conferences. I've said it before, but NBC is willing to throw the kitchen sink at us. CBS is very willing to do the same - and if they lose out for first tier bidding, we may be able to do a deal a year early with them to vastly expand our second tier contract with them. Why? Because a 12 team league has a lot more games than an 8 team one does.

[Bulls1181]

http://washingtonexaminer.com/blogs/watch/2011/11/big-east-expansion-goes-west-byu-east-carolina-temple-and-memphis-all-mix#.Tq_vs-JG20s.twitter

Same sentiment with this article. We can still do ok $ wise.

"Notre Dame will have a big hand in helping to craft a new Big East starting today."

[dabull80]

http://www.washingto...EIaM_story.html

Key graphs:

“Even as we sit here today, as gloomy as it may appear, the Big East can still have a nice outcome for a variety of reasons. Not the least of which is supply and demand,” said Chris Bevilacqua, a New York-based sports media consultant who helped the Pac-12 make its landmark $3 billion television deal with Fox and ESPN earlier this year."

ESPN tried to get the Big East to sign an extension this year, reportedly for about $1 billion over nine years. That deal would have gotten the Big East in the ballpark of what the other BCS AQ leagues are getting, but not close enough so it was rejected.

If the Big East survives, and ESPN wants it back — and ESPN can never get enough college football — it will now have to compete with Fox, NBC and its cable entity, Versus, and CBS, which is looking to build its cable channel, CBS Sports Network.

Plus, there are cable distributors such as Time Warner, Comcast and Cox that are delving more into providing content.

But the fact is that the future of the BCS, like everything else in college football, is up in the air.

Its contracts run through 2013 and beyond that there are no benchmarks to determine which conferences will be automatic qualifiers — there’s even a chance there will be no BCS in 2014.

If there is, there’s a good chance TV ratings and market sizes will be just as important — if not more important — than winning percentages and bowl appearances when it comes to deciding who gets in.

And if the Big East is left out after being one of the original six leagues that helped craft the BCS, maybe its lawyers can persuade the leaders of the other AQ leagues — especially the ones who poached Big East teams — to think again.

Been saying a lot of this stuff for awhile. ESPN didn't want the BE to get to open market because the cost would go up - AND IT STILL WILL IF WE KEEP IT TOGETHER. As the TV analyst that negotiated the PAC-12 deal said, it's supply and demand.

FACT: The Big East is the only game still in town not locked in a TV deal for about a decade or more.

FACT: All four networks and their cable arms want more programming.

FACT: Bidding drives prices up, not down.

Adding teams to get to 12 also gives the league more games to sell in tiered packages. The league can also split its basketball off from football like the Big Ten did to get more money. Our ESPN deal expires after next season and our second tier deal with CBS ends the next year (and that one will see a massive increase because it was paltry).

In the end, the ACC will be left with the lowest amount of TV revenue by far and those schools will fully realize how badly they were played by ESPN. That is, IF the Big East can stay together in some form.

I hope you are right.

[dabull80]

I may have missed it but what are you guys talking about - 1st tier and 2nd tier ?