Stadium, redux... yet again...

[bulls87]

That would suck, less students would probably show up

They are already paying for attendance now in the reg. fees.  I know back when I went to USF they included the fees and that is the reason we went to the BB games (you are paying for it so why not use it).

[Apis Bull]

That is fine but why would USF pay for land close to campus when they already have the land on campus to build a stadium.  I was also thinking about the land on the north side of Fletcher near river park.  I think USF still ownes all of that.

True.

[Bullpride08]

I think with USF's attendance possibilities you almost have to start out at 50-55k seats, with some boxes, and a press box.  That alone is in the neighborhood of $90-100mm.  Next year if our team is halfway decent I see at least two games that should demand at least 40k in fans- UCF, and WVU.  Bring those two in, and suddenly we're looking at 40plus attendance for at least two games per season.  That alone is enough for USF to conduct a feasibility study on this idea.  

Again, if you can put 40k in a stadium on a regular basis, and 10k are students, and you get say 25k that are fully paying at $25, then you generate $3.75mm a year at an bear minimum in attendance alone.  Consider full concessions, full parking- 10k cars for $10 for six games is over $600k.  Remember, concerts, shows, and events to rent it out.  Also, the box leases, and other sports can use it.

For example, let's say it costs 98mm to build (probably on the high side if its 50k seats, but it would depend on the style.  We'd probably need to raise about 20% of the capital to even begin considering the finances- that's about $20mm.  Realizing that this deal would be financed with tax-exempt muni's, I just looked at the assumed underwriting rate on a Single A rated MB.  It's approximately 6%, with a 30 year maturity.  Therefore financing say $75-78mm in bond proceeds would cost approximately $5.5mm in debt service annually.

So the debt service to own it at this level is approximately $5.5mm per annum.

Revenue Certainty:

1.  approximately $3.5mm for ticket sales, bump it to say $4mm if you charge student's $5 a ticket or get attendance to bolster to 27,500.

2.  Parking, say 10k at $10 for six games is $600k.

3.  Concessions- on campus so no more beer sales- a few sodas, hotdogs, peanuts, etc., as someone stated $5/person in attendance provides approximately $1.2mm per annum.

4.  Add in incidentals- advertising, luxury box leases, and naming rights.  Assume advertising is going for $10k a game with a few dozen advertisers, the luxury box is an unknown (and a variable cost because if they don't build luxury boxes hard costs reduce signifcantly, if they do- and they only would if they were previously committed- then the revenue stream is identifiable) for argument sake we'll ignore and call it the Athletic Department's Holiday Party Cash Flow.  Naming rights, depending on the size, quality, and concert potential I'd assume we'd be lucky to find one for $1mm per annum.

Revenue:  

Ticket Sales      $3.75mm

Concessions     $1.2mm

Parking             $  .6mm

Incidentals        $2.5mm

CF                     $8.05mm

DS                     $5.50mm

OCF                   $2.55mm

There is $2.55mm that must go to operations, maintenance, reserves, and incidentals.  You can expect that travel, equipment, and at least one team is going to cost us about $400k to get in for a visit.  Then you must consider security, ticket counters, concessions, management, clean-up, etc.

(Note: the assumptions made are on the aggressive side).

Generally speaking USF could build it's own stadium predicated on the following premises:

1.  They have one year averaging at least 40k fans, and at least 25k paying fans that pay an average of $25 a ticket.

2.  That USF is capable of raising at least $25mm in private equity before raising it in the capital markets.

3.  That a stadium holding approximately 50k people can be build on-campus for about $90mm.

4.  That naming rights, luxury boxes, and advertising can be sold out, and provide the necessary ancillary income.

5.  That the program is maximizing income generation in other areas- conference affiliation, bowl revenue, and traveling games.

Before USF could build an on-campus stadium they would need some certitude that those five caveats could be met or exceeded.   If so, then build away.

[bulls87]

When/If they build on campus, I still want my club area!!!

[Jim Johnson]

Bien --

There are other financing options available as well that can help reduce the debt service impact.

1) CITF -- the Marshall Center wants to go through a $40 million (or more) expansion.  Let's say that some of that expansion is included in the new stadium (offices for student organizations and meeting rooms for example).  Some CITF funds could be used.

2) PECO -- Classroom space is ALWAYS needed on campus - expecially as USF continues to grow.  If we add some classroom space in the new stadium (for the phys ed and phys therapy programs, for example), it will be possible to use some PECO funds.

3) Leased Space -- While luxury boxes are the obvious areas that could bring in lease revenue, the stadium could also provide other areas.  For example, FSU's stadium includes the University Club, a members-only dining and entertaining area.  The new stadium could include similar areas, including another on-campus hotel.

NOW - adding new uses to the staduim for the portions listed above DOES add some to the cost of the stadium.  However, some percentage of the funds used will pay for the overall structure.

4) Personal Seat Licenses.  PSL's were a big hit in the 1990s when professional teams built dozens of new stadiums.  USF could sell PSL's that guarantee season ticket holders the same seats year after year, as long as they make the appropriate annual donation to the Bulls Club and purchase their seats.  Heck, using PSL's could allow the Bulls Club to "grandfather" in existing donors.

5) Non-football revenue.  Of course, we can not calculate how often the stadium will be used for events other than football.  Perhaps it could be designed for USF mens soccer or even the Baseball and Softball teams (for special events).  Concerts and other summer events can help -- but for those, we charge facility rent rather than count ticket sales.  We would also get parking & concession revenue.

------------------

I predict they will open the upper deck for the UCF game IF AND ONLY IF they can be convinced that:

a) the game will sell out the lower bowl before the season even starts, and

there is enough demand for more tickets, and those who demand tickets communicate their desire to USF.

REASON - more ticket sales equals more money for USF  athletics.  However, they will NOT sell out a 65,000 seat stadium.  How could USF turn away 5,000-9,000 tickets at $15-$18 apiece?  ($5,000 x $15 = $75,000, that should easily cover the added expenses).

[BullDoug]

Don't forget luxury boxes.  Need a minimum of 10-12 per side.

PS  Let's pin this topic to the top of the page indefinitely and call it South Florida Dreamin' 'cuz the reality is that it's at least 25 yrs out.

[BullGrad95]

3.  Concessions- on campus so no more beer sales- a few sodas, hotdogs, peanuts, etc., as someone stated $5/person in attendance provides approximately $1.2mm per annum.

Part of reason #3 is enough for me to say leave it at RJS.  I love my beer at the games.  

[Guest S.  Bien]

Bien --

There are other financing options available as well that can help reduce the debt service impact.

1) CITF -- the Marshall Center wants to go through a $40 million (or more) expansion.  Let's say that some of that expansion is included in the new stadium (offices for student organizations and meeting rooms for example).  Some CITF funds could be used.

2) PECO -- Classroom space is ALWAYS needed on campus - expecially as USF continues to grow.  If we add some classroom space in the new stadium (for the phys ed and phys therapy programs, for example), it will be possible to use some PECO funds.

3) Leased Space -- While luxury boxes are the obvious areas that could bring in lease revenue, the stadium could also provide other areas.  For example, FSU's stadium includes the University Club, a members-only dining and entertaining area.  The new stadium could include similar areas, including another on-campus hotel.

NOW - adding new uses to the staduim for the portions listed above DOES add some to the cost of the stadium.  However, some percentage of the funds used will pay for the overall structure.

4) Personal Seat Licenses.  PSL's were a big hit in the 1990s when professional teams built dozens of new stadiums.  USF could sell PSL's that guarantee season ticket holders the same seats year after year, as long as they make the appropriate annual donation to the Bulls Club and purchase their seats.  Heck, using PSL's could allow the Bulls Club to "grandfather" in existing donors.

5) Non-football revenue.  Of course, we can not calculate how often the stadium will be used for events other than football.  Perhaps it could be designed for USF mens soccer or even the Baseball and Softball teams (for special events).  Concerts and other summer events can help -- but for those, we charge facility rent rather than count ticket sales.  We would also get parking & concession revenue.

------------------

I predict they will open the upper deck for the UCF game IF AND ONLY IF they can be convinced that:

a) the game will sell out the lower bowl before the season even starts, and

there is enough demand for more tickets, and those who demand tickets communicate their desire to USF.

REASON - more ticket sales equals more money for USF  athletics.  However, they will NOT sell out a 65,000 seat stadium.  How could USF turn away 5,000-9,000 tickets at $15-$18 apiece?  ($5,000 x $15 = $75,000, that should easily cover the added expenses).

Jim,

Great points, and your right.  A stadium on campus is not as far fetched as one may think.  Now given that point there are other more pressing needs like improvements to baseball and softball facilities, soccer stadium improvements, and tennis.  Also, we may want a full fledged indoor practice facility.  The capital improvement run that's current is to improve those facilities.  Until those are done, I don't think we'll think about a stadium.   Plus the prospects of us raising $25-30mm just for a stadium from private donors would probably take about 5-7 years to raise if you use the current facility time it took them to raise $10mm.

However, if we can start averaging north of 40k fans, if we can get a solid season ticket base over 20k then it would be worthwhile for the University to conduct a feasibility study to determine if and when it would be worthwhile.  Those two achievements are not far off if we can get to bowl games consistently, and bringing BE ball clubs will help that effort.

On the UCF game, its ludicrous for people to assume we're going to open the upper decks for a presumed large walk-up crowd if we don't get the bottom bowl soldout before the season starts.  I would be shocked if that happened, and if it did then maybe, just maybe they would open it up.  As for opening for an overflow of UCF fans, well forgettaboutit.  For precident just remember the UF basketball game a few years ago when we only gave them their regular allotment of tickets, and didn't sell any excess to UF.  We will refuse to increase UCF's allotment of 5k if we do not sellout our portion before the season starts.

[bulls96go]

i can see a 30-35 thousand seat stadium eventually

if you are not building 50k stadium pay the $80K and stay at ray jay

[Kizarvexis]

Here are the USF attendance numbers per the USF Media guide (tickets sold). As Knight fans so like to comment on, RJS puts out numbers around 2k lower (butts in seats). Since you guys are talking financing, go with the Media Guide numbers (tickets sold).

USF I-AA Avg per season ('97-'00) = 27,968  (755,130 in 27 games)

USF I-A Avg per season ('01-'04) = 28,035 (616,776 in 22 games, through the Army game)

USF Overall Avg per season ('97-'04) = 27,998 (1,371,906 in 49 games, through the Army game)

USF I-A Independent Avg per season ('01 & '02) = 27,967 (341,563 in 13 games)

USF I-A C-USA Avg per season ('03 & '04) = 30,579 (275,213 in 9 games, through the Army game)

Here are the numbers broken down by each season.

'97 I-AA  7 games for 231,271 = 33,039 per game

'98 I-AA  7 games for 190,002 = 27,143 per game

'99 I-AA  7 games for 175,371 = 25,053 per game

'00 I-AA  6 games for 158,486 = 26,414 per game

'01 I-A (Ind)  7 games for 180,737 = 25,820 per game

'02 I-A (Ind)  6 games for 160,826 = 26,804 per game

'03 I-A (C-USA)  6 games for 183,069 = 30,512 per game

'04 I-A (C-USA)  3 games for 92,144 = 30,715 per game ('04 is up through the Army game, with ECU, Memphis and Pitt left to go.)

Kizarvexis