Conference realignment "Rumors" "tweets" "etc"

[Peatearpan]

all these Twitter people are being so **** gauge and just repeating each other.

[Rocky Style]

I'm hoping grumpy FSU leaves soon.

[Triple B]

On 12/7/2023 at 6:40 PM, Triple B said:

 

The actual "breakaway" was when the XII offered membership, only 3 years ago. Your comment was, "the breakaway we should’ve been a part of years ago". That wording, to me anyway, indicates a lot longer time ago than just 3 years. If you had indicated it was when the 3 from the AAC were pulled up, not that much to disagree on.

 

4 hours ago, I like GOOOOLD (and green) said:

It feels like semantics either way to me.  Focusing on the invites (3) years ago is like taking issue with the final nail in the coffin and ignoring us digging our own grave, putting said coffin in, and getting in it.  The point was valid.

Like I said, not much to disagree about if it was the 2021 "breakaway" you were referring to and obviously you were.

[Jim Johnson]

6 hours ago, I like GOOOOLD (and green) said:

You’re saying schools like Louisville and VT would rather stay in an acc without Clemson, fsu, unc, and Virginia than go to a better conference that gets paid more money? We literally just saw this happen to a historically stronger conference than the acc, what’s driving you to think a different outcome will result from the same situation?

The moment the GOR opens up the only OG acc schools left will be the ones the other three conferences don’t pick up. I won’t venture to guess who goes where at this point but we now who will be left behind.  The big 12 absolutely is a part of the equation.  

1. The ACC will pay out more money than the Big 12 over the next decade, even without their top teams because ESPN can't rework the contract just because the composition of the conference changes -- as long as the conference remains above 15 teams.  The ACC network will continue to grow revenue as it expands westward thanks to SMU, Stanford, and Cal, plus when the Big 12 contract expires they will face the same stark reality the Pac 12 faced - they are not worth the money they think they should get.   So the Big 12's next contract will not be all that meaningful.

2. Also, the GOR will not "open up". The addition of three teams actually made this even more certain - there will not be 10 votes to disband the GOR and no court is going to throw it out.  Thus, the few schools leaving will be paying a ton of money to leave.  Louisville, Va Tech, Pitt, etc will not be able to afford the exit fees ... and they would have to give up their share of the money being paid by FSU, Clemson, etc -- which could be more than $1 billion in total.  By the time the cost to leave gets more reasonable in the 2030s, the Big 12 will have a new contract that will be on par with the ACC so even in 2032 or 2033 there won't be any real incentive to leave.

You can forget the Big 12 getting any current ACC team.

Edited December 9, 2023 by Jim Johnson

[MMW]

7 hours ago, I like GOOOOLD (and green) said:

The simple answer is money.  In multiple ways, not just getting more money moving to X conference.  There’s consolidation happening and fewer partners willing to buy.  There’s a lot of fat to trim in the acc, more than the pac had.  

I don’t think there’s going to be a crap ton of playoff spots imo.  The acc is probably going to be a one bid league most years, even with Clemson and FSU still members.  The other three leagues are going to take 10/12 of the spots every year while the acc, mwc, and aac fight each other for the other two spots.  This is until they renegotiate the playoff structure again.  

I thought the ACC champion was guaranteed a spot?

I could see the second place team between Miami, FSU and Clemson getting strong consideration if they're are highly ranked.

Edited December 9, 2023 by MMW

[Triple B]

31 minutes ago, MMW said:

I thought the ACC champion was guaranteed a spot?

I could see the second place team between Miami, FSU and Clemson getting strong consideration if they're are highly ranked.

There is no guaranteed spot for a specific conference. I've lost track of what's been finalized for the 12 team playoff in 2024 and 2025 but, depending on what happens with the Pac 2, there will either 9 or 10 conferences fighting for 5 or 6 guaranteed playoff spots ....

[Cubanbull]

The latest for 2024 and 2025 is

The top 5 Conference Champions

7 at large. So basically if you aren’t in Top12 in ranking you aren’t getting an at large.

What this leads to is

SEC/BigTen and ND basically taking those 7 at large.

The chances of the ACC or Big12 having another school outside their champion in Top 12 is minimal.

Another reason that makes ACC schools paying a big exit fee for a similar media deal in B12 to also compete for one CFP spot there, not a real good decision.

[Triple B]

9 minutes ago, Cubanbull said:

The latest for 2024 and 2025 is

The top 5 Conference Champions

7 at large. So basically if you aren’t in Top12 in ranking you aren’t getting an at large.

What this leads to is

SEC/BigTen and ND basically taking those 7 at large.

The chances of the ACC or Big12 having another school outside their champion in Top 12 is minimal.

Another reason that makes ACC schools paying a big exit fee for a similar media deal in B12 to also compete for one CFP spot there, not a real good decision.

So is the Pac2 going to be considered as eligible for one of those spots?

[MMW]

1 minute ago, Triple B said:

So is the Pac2 going to be considered as eligible for one of those spots?

We should hurry up and join so we can continue our tradition.

[Cubanbull]

20 minutes ago, Triple B said:

There is no guaranteed spot for a specific conference. I've lost track of what's been finalized for the 12 team playoff in 2024 and 2025 but, depending on what happens with the Pac 2, there will either 9 or 10 conferences fighting for 5 or 6 guaranteed playoff spots ....

 

1 minute ago, Triple B said:

So is the Pac2 going to be considered as eligible for one of those spots?

From what I have heard, no they would only qualify as an at large