Conference realignment "Rumors" "tweets" "etc"

[GaUSFBull]

Only thing I can think of why they would be able to renegotiate would be if viewership levels are much higher than forecasted.  I don't think there is any leverage to be had if it looks like teams are going to jump ship.  The network will probably be in a wait-and-see mode, refraining from acting until the latest rumors end up being true or not. 

 

Totally agree that more dollars we can get, the better.

[GaUSFBull]

And I have to say, the biggest joke so far is Aresco trying to get a GOR.  With Cincy, Uconn, at least, not to mention USF, I can't see a GOR EVER being in play for the AAC.  I got a kick out of that part ...

[Triple B]

I literally just scrolled quickly through the first 20 pages and not a trace of Mr. Reef.   I know for a fact he posted somewhere in those first 20 pages initially, so there has definitely been some ghosting of posts going on in here. 

 

If he posted something in those first 20 pages, odds are he would have been quoted and I didn't see anything. If any of his posts are missing from then, though, he would have had to have deleted them himself. I can see ones that have been hidden/deleted from this end.

[Who'sYourData?]

Is anyone utterly nervous?

Why would we be? Our situation can hardly get worse. The only reason to be nervous is if things could get worse.

 

The B12 commissioner was saying that they don't want to dilute their membership because they're all getting absurd payouts.

Posturing, negotiation tactics, inability to talk about secret meetings taking place. I wouldn't expect a commissioner to ever say they were looking at adding schools although it has happened once or twice.

 

So what are they going to do if they make a move? I can't see them taking four schools, I just can't. Why would you go from one of the largest P5 payouts to one of the smallest?  The B12 GOR is already in place,

Adding schools lets them renegotiate TV contracts. Who knows? We certainly don't.

 

So what are they going to do? We're talking four schools here. UC has been a consistent winner, their only issue is that Nippert is not easily expandable to the 60k that the Big 12 would be hoping for (and that can be offset by holding bigger games at Paul Brown). They've built a quality program at this point. ECU? They've been banging on doors for years and have done nothing but win a lot of football games and win the attendance battle. ECU is a large university (26k) with they've consistently sold out their stadium, especially in recent years and have built up quite the fan base. They also have a quite exciting form of football that would tailor well to TV ratings. I don't think we need to say anymore about what UCF has done. What do we have? Great facilities, sure. the Sun Dome is beautiful and Raymond James still works as a big game venue, though perhaps it's not quite as good in promoting the college football experience (and let's not forget-it's not OURs). Our football attendance is down and the jury is currently out on basketball with a new coach. We don't make the Big 12 money unless UCF is nice enough to ask for us to come along with them.

Making any decision on the current state of the football or basketball team on the field is foolhardy. UCF was down two years ago and we were up. Two years from now that could easily be flipped. UCF looks nothing like the team it was a year ago.

 

Let's get real. If these rumors are true they might reach out to four schools but most likely they will pick two. And the two will be Cincy and UCF. If it's all four I will be stunned.I'm sorry if this sounds harsh, but that's the reality right now.

Let's get real. None of us have any idea what they are going to do or why they might do it. This rumor is as good as any.

[Who'sYourData?]

Only thing I can think of why they would be able to renegotiate would be if viewership levels are much higher than forecasted.  I don't think there is any leverage to be had if it looks like teams are going to jump ship.  The network will probably be in a wait-and-see mode, refraining from acting until the latest rumors end up being true or not. 

 

Totally agree that more dollars we can get, the better.

 

I think that is the only reason they would have leverage.  If ESPN doesn't want to Fox to gain a larger foothold by having the Big 12 grow larger.  ESPN currently has the prestigious AAC all to itself, while it is splitting the B12 with Fox.  Fox may benefit more from a new deal.  Maybe.  I don't know, but IF Aresco is renegotiating then there must be some leverage.  Larger TV audiences wouldn't be leverage because there would be no reason for ESPN to budge.

[bullsbucsfan426]

 

Is anyone utterly nervous?

Why would we be? Our situation can hardly get worse. The only reason to be nervous is if things could get worse.

 

The B12 commissioner was saying that they don't want to dilute their membership because they're all getting absurd payouts.

Posturing, negotiation tactics, inability to talk about secret meetings taking place. I wouldn't expect a commissioner to ever say they were looking at adding schools although it has happened once or twice.

 

So what are they going to do if they make a move? I can't see them taking four schools, I just can't. Why would you go from one of the largest P5 payouts to one of the smallest?  The B12 GOR is already in place,

Adding schools lets them renegotiate TV contracts. Who knows? We certainly don't.

 

So what are they going to do? We're talking four schools here. UC has been a consistent winner, their only issue is that Nippert is not easily expandable to the 60k that the Big 12 would be hoping for (and that can be offset by holding bigger games at Paul Brown). They've built a quality program at this point. ECU? They've been banging on doors for years and have done nothing but win a lot of football games and win the attendance battle. ECU is a large university (26k) with they've consistently sold out their stadium, especially in recent years and have built up quite the fan base. They also have a quite exciting form of football that would tailor well to TV ratings. I don't think we need to say anymore about what UCF has done. What do we have? Great facilities, sure. the Sun Dome is beautiful and Raymond James still works as a big game venue, though perhaps it's not quite as good in promoting the college football experience (and let's not forget-it's not OURs). Our football attendance is down and the jury is currently out on basketball with a new coach. We don't make the Big 12 money unless UCF is nice enough to ask for us to come along with them.

Making any decision on the current state of the football or basketball team on the field is foolhardy. UCF was down two years ago and we were up. Two years from now that could easily be flipped. UCF looks nothing like the team it was a year ago.

 

Let's get real. If these rumors are true they might reach out to four schools but most likely they will pick two. And the two will be Cincy and UCF. If it's all four I will be stunned.I'm sorry if this sounds harsh, but that's the reality right now.

Let's get real. None of us have any idea what they are going to do or why they might do it. This rumor is as good as any.

 

 

It's not just winning, it's attendance and the program itself. 

 

I have a very good friend who is a former USF student body president He won't attend a game unless we're good. Four to six wins a  year are apparently not enough for him. When we were talking about the Wisconsin game last week he told me he doesn't go to or watch USF games because they do exactly what he expects: to lose, and he doesn't want to watch losing. Never mind that we were a 33 point under dog and half our team is freshmen and sophomores. 

 

Tampa is a fair weather town and they will only show up for a consistent winner. We don't have that benefit.

[GaUSFBull]

 

Only thing I can think of why they would be able to renegotiate would be if viewership levels are much higher than forecasted.  I don't think there is any leverage to be had if it looks like teams are going to jump ship.  The network will probably be in a wait-and-see mode, refraining from acting until the latest rumors end up being true or not. 

 

Totally agree that more dollars we can get, the better.

 

I think that is the only reason they would have leverage.  If ESPN doesn't want to Fox to gain a larger foothold by having the Big 12 grow larger.  ESPN currently has the prestigious AAC all to itself, while it is splitting the B12 with Fox.  Fox may benefit more from a new deal.  Maybe.  I don't know, but IF Aresco is renegotiating then there must be some leverage.  Larger TV audiences wouldn't be leverage because there would be no reason for ESPN to budge.

 

 

Ah, you're right, I forgot Fox has half the B12.  Good call.  Good points, hopefully it's desperation of teams (read: us and others) jumping ship why he is allegedly trying to renegotiate. 

[Bullschmutz]

I think you have to look at the winners and losers in conference expansion. You trend one way, and stay on that trend.

The WAC had 16 teams.... then 8... They lost Boise and now they have none. Losers.

The Big 10... had 10... had 11... went to 12... now 14. Bigtime cable deal. Winners.

Pac 10. Had 8, went to 10, went to 12. They arent losing anyone. They can go to 14 easily. Huge improvement in earnings. Winners.

SEC. Expanded to 12 in 1991. 14 in 2012. Winners.

ACC. You can say they started this whole expansion free for all in 2004. Had 10 teams. They wanted Miami. And got them with VT and BC. And futher took 3 more BE schools. 10 + 6 - 1 = 15.5 teams with the quasi member Notre Dame. Winners even though they lost one crappy charter member with horrible finances.

Big East: Had 8. Lost the crowning jewel Miami, and two others. 8 - 3, add us and the replacements, 8 - 3 + 3 = 8. An arguably lesser 8 at that. More defections... 8 - 5, eaten up by three other conferences. Minus non-football member Notre Dame. We lost 8 teams, and finally expanded, with some relatively low hanging fruit, compared to the rest. Massive demotion in revenue. Not even known as the Big East anymore. Losers. Big time Losers.

Now let's look at the Big 12. Had it's namesake, 12. Lost two. 10. Lost two more. Replaced two. At one time was considering a merger with the Big East. 12 - 2 - 2 + 2 = 10. Love/Hate relationship with the shark and crowning jewel Texas. Status: Trending down, but not out.

To quote Ricki Bobby, "If you ain't first, you're last." To paraphrase... if you ain't winning... you are losing. The Big 12 is losing. They need to expand.

[Bear]

Even in this season, USF is further away from climbing into the AAC.

 

 

If USF (over other candidates) can show that they are able to bring in marketing dollars...

 

 

Then the BIG12 would want us in the conference. We need control over the Tampa Bay market.

[jvwvu]

Hello old thread

 

Nobody in AAC adds value to TV contract right now thus no expansion.  I think we sit still for 5-7 years when the TV contracts get close and the see how the 2+1 Playoffs work.  Ultimately I see us going to Division 64 (4-16s for TV Contracts) team leagues with a 4 (as Conference champ)-2-1 playoff coming.

 

This means the Big 12 is done - and is broken up with Pac, B1G getting most and WVU headed ACC or SEC.

 

The question is who is the 64? and thus the 4-6 teams coming along for the ride.

Edited October 7, 2014 by jvwvu