Toughest Schedules:

[Apis Bull]

Heels coach says brutal schedule builds toughness      

May 31, 2005

By Dennis Dodd

CBS SportsLine.com Senior Writer

Tell Dennis your opinion!

   

 

 This is the last of a weeklong SportsLine.com series on college football scheduling. Today: Strength of schedule.

North Carolina's schedule is a joke. Not in the I-AA, cream-puff, pushover sense. More like: What the Heel is John Bunting thinking?

"I've got to believe we have the toughest schedule," said Bunting, heading into his fifth season as coach of that other sport in Chapel Hill. "Our kids know that."

   

John Bunting's Tar Heels were 6-6 in 2004. (Getty Images)    

Hard to tell whether that is a boast or a cry for help. Some of it has been inherited, some of it is manufactured, but North Carolina's schedule has a lot in common with Ashlee Simpson's treatment of the musical scale.

Both are brutal.

If anything, the degree of difficulty has increased for 2005.

North Carolina and Georgia Tech tied for No. 1 in schedule strength, according to the formula devised by CBS SportsLine.com. That's not exactly a surprise considering Carolina had the second-toughest schedule in 2004, according to the NCAA and was No. 1 in the respected Sagarin Ratings.

The catch is that schedule strength doesn't necessarily translate into success. In fact, it makes it **** hard for programs like Carolina. Since 2001, the Heels are 6-9 in non-conference games, 2-6 against teams from BCS leagues.

A team like Kansas State has played a total of eight BCS-league non-conference games in the past 11 years. North Carolina did it in the past four, having played teams from seven different leagues during that span as the joke took shape.

"Some of that scheduling was there (when I arrived) and the ACC wasn't the way it is today," Bunting said. "The ACC the way it is now, you don't want to be scheduling powerhouses."

Rating by Conferences  

Rnk  Conference  Rating  

1  Big East  1.2955

2  SEC  1.1887  

3  Big 12  1.1750  

4  ACC  1.1544  

5  Pac-10  1.1294  

6  Indep.  1.0883  

7  Big Ten  1.0716  

8  WAC  0.9094  

9  M. West  0.8908  

10  MAC  0.7853  

11  C-USA  0.7362  

12  Sun Belt  0.6661  

Bunting, 54, arrived at his alma mater at a weird time. ACC expansion had yet to become an issue in 2001. North Carolina was initially against it.

Meanwhile, the schedule had been upgraded from the Mack Brown-Carl Torbush days. With expansion, Miami is an annual opponent in the ACC Coastal Division and the non-conference hits just keep on coming. This year's out-of-league Burma Road includes Wisconsin, Utah and Louisville, a combined 32-4 in 2004.

"I was one that wanted it, because I think it will help us in recruiting," Bunting said of expansion. "I think we're the best university in the ACC, in terms of everything it has to offer."

Bunting asked his first team if they wanted to travel to Oklahoma to open the season in '01. What do kids know? Of course, the seniors voted enthusiastically to play the Sooners in their first game since winning the 2000 national championship.

"We almost got blown out in the first five, six minutes," he said. "A turnover returned for a touchdown, a kickoff returned for a touchdown. It was 28-0 at the end of the first quarter."

The Heels were respectable, losing by 14, but in the second week of September 2001, Bunting's first team was 0-3 after roadies to Oklahoma, Maryland and Texas. Then 9/11 hit, pushing a layup against SMU to the end of the season. But a funny thing happened during the two-week layoff -- Carolina got better. It beat Florida State at home, starting a five-game winning streak, the highlight of an 8-5 season.

In 2002, Carolina played Syracuse (win) and Texas (loss) back-to-back. In 2004, Louisville and Utah popped up on the schedule. The two top 10 teams whipped the Heels by a combined 80-16.

"Who knew that Louisville was going to be like they are (11-1)?" Bunting said. "Who knew that Utah was going to have Alex Smith and Urban Meyer was going to construct that type of offense that destroyed everybody?"

Before this year's first spring practice, Bunting had a short film made for his team embracing the schedule issue. It starred fifth-year quarterback Matt Baker.

"He's going through the schedule, eyeballing it in the lockerroom," Bunting said. "The first time he shakes his head. The second time he goes, 'Oh wow' and the third time he goes, 'Holy S---, look at this schedule?'"

Then, mimicking a current office supplier commercial, Baker presses the "easy" button.

If it were only that simple.

You just wonder why Bunting continues to endure (or welcome?) the punishment. With a 19-30 record in his four seasons, he has played roulette with his career. Bunting has been close to termination (if you believe the pundits). Now the former Tar Heels all-ACC linebacker says he's close to glory.

"Our kids are toughened to the point where they don't get rattled," Bunting said. "Playing the types of opponents we play, they're not scared. I just think they're battle-hardened."

The evidence suggests that Carolina is making a slow, deliberate turnaround.

After a 5-19 patch in 2002 and 2003, Carolina rebounded in 2004 with a 6-6 bowl season that included a life-changing upset of the Hurricanes. Ninety minutes after the game, Bunting was surprised to find a fellow Class of '72 Tar Heel waiting to congratulate him -- Roy Williams.

If Carolina can beat the Canes with a third-string tailback (the departed Chad Scott) and a porous defense, think what it can do this year. Bunting has arguably his best team with the return of 18 seniors and 10 defensive starters. All that group has to do is get past four 2004 bowl teams in the first five weeks.

North Carolina (eight) and Georgia Tech (six) are at the top primarily because they face a combined 14 bowl teams. The programs are among a handful of the 119 I-A teams playing three teams with at least 10 wins from 2004.

The symmetry is beautiful. North Carolina opens the season at Georgia Tech on Sept. 10. The winner and loser know the schedule will only get harder.

Notes on the formula

Each conference team started with a base number. That number was reached by determining the overall 2004 winning percentage of each conference (based on 2005 membership). In the ACC that number was .571. To that number was added the percentage of 2004 bowl teams multiplied by .75. Seventy-five percent of the ACC's seven bowl teams (including Boston College) is .4374.

Added together the ACC's base number is 1.0088.

Teams were then given credit for playing 2004 bowl teams in the non-conference (.0178 per team) and for each game overall against a 10-win team (.109). The thinking being that even though it is a new year, bowl teams, especially really good bowl teams, will have some carryover.

Both Carolina and Georgia Tech were from the same conference. Each face three bowl teams in the non-conference and three 10-win teams from 2004. That's why their total is identical -- 1.3893.

The Big East has the toughest schedule strength overall largely because six of its eight teams went to bowls last season. The league got a huge boost in schedule strength by inheriting Louisville and Cincinnati, two 2004 bowl teams from Conference USA.

Seven of the top 12 teams in CBS SportsLine.com's strength of schedule rating are from that reconfigured Big East. That will be a big surprise to SEC (No. 2 in schedule strength) and Big 12 (No. 3) loyalists who annually argue about the strongest conference.

What about defending champion USC? It is in the middle at No. 56 overall. Orange Bowl opponent Oklahoma is tied for the 36th-toughest schedule. Not that that necessarily indicates success. Last year USC ended the season No. 18 in NCAA schedule strength. Oklahoma was No. 11.

In case you're wondering about the Big Three talent-producing states: Baylor (Texas), South Florida (Florida) and Stanford (California) have the toughest schedules in those states.

2005 Strength of Schedule  

Rnk  School  Conf.  Rating  

1  North Carolina  ACC  1.3893  

1  Georgia Tech  ACC  1.3893  

3  West Virginia  Big East  1.385  

3  Rutgers  Big East  1.385  

5  Notre Dame  Independent  1.380  

6  Kentucky  SEC  1.369  

7  Syracuse  Big East  1.320  

8  South Florida  Big East  1.293  

9  Georgia  SEC  1.287  

10  Connecticut  Big East  1.276  

10  Pittsburgh  Big East  1.276  

12  Cincinnati  Big East  1.258  

13  Arizona  Pac-10  1.2718  

13  Stanford  Pac-10  1.2718  

15  South Carolina  SEC  1.269  

16  UCLA  Pac-10  1.262  

17  Arkansas  SEC  1.260  

18  Duke  ACC  1.235  

19  Baylor  Big 12  1.229  

20  Maryland  ACC  1.226  

21  Kansas  Big 12  1.2208  

21  Oklahoma State  Big 12  1.2208  

21  Texas A&M  Big 12  1.2208  

24  Ohio State  Big Ten  1.213  

25  Texas Tech  Big 12  1.211  

26  Illinois  Big Ten  1.189  

27  Florida  SEC  1.178  

28  Louisville  Big East  1.030  

29  LSU  SEC  1.1697  

30  Mississippi  SEC  1.1697  

31  Alabama  SEC  1.1608  

32  Kansas State  Big 12  1.1565  

33  Missouri  Big 12  1.1565  

34  Washington  Pac-10  1.153  

35  Oregon  Pac-10  1.144  

36  Colorado  Big 12  1.1386  

36  Iowa State  Big 12  1.1386  

36  Oklahoma  Big 12  1.1386  

36  Texas  Big 12  1.1386  

40  Washington State  Pac-10  1.136  

41  Virginia  ACC  1.1356  

42  Miami (Fla)  ACC  1.1356  

43  Mississippi State  SEC  1.134  

43  Vanderbilt  SEC  1.134  

45  Nebraska  Big 12  1.129  

46  NC State  ACC  1.1178  

46  Boston College  ACC  1.1178  

48  Temple  Independent  1.101  

49  Tennessee  SEC  1.087  

50  Penn State  Big Ten  1.0861  

50  Michigan  Big Ten  1.0861  

50  Northwestern  Big Ten  1.0861  

50  Purdue  Big Ten  1.0861  

54  Indiana  Big Ten  1.0683  

54  Wisconsin  Big Ten  1.0683  

56  Arizona State  Pac-10  1.0449  

56  Southern Cal  Pac-10  1.0449  

58  Florida State  ACC  1.0445  

59  Auburn  SEC  1.042  

60  Clemson  ACC  1.0266  

60  Virginia Tech  ACC  1.0266  

62  California  Pac-10  1.018  

63  Hawaii  WAC  1.011  

64  Wake Forest  ACC  1.008  

65  Army  Independent  1.004  

66  Air Force  Mountain West  .9857  

66  TCU  Conf. USA  .9857  

68  Fresno State  WAC  .9851  

68  Utah State  WAC  .9851  

70  Ball State  MAC  .9778  

71  Michigan State  Big Ten  .9771  

72  Iowa  Big Ten  .968  

73  Minnesota  Big Ten  .959  

74  Oregon State  Pac-10  .944  

75  Rice  Conf. USA  .927  

76  San Diego State  Mountain West  .912  

77  New Mexico State  WAC  .902  

78  Colorado State  Mountain West  .894  

79  Boise State  WAC  .893  

80  BYU  Mountain West  .8767  

80  Wyoming  Mountain West  .8767  

82  Louisiana Tech  WAC  .867  

83  Navy  Independent  .866  

84  New Mexico  Mountain West  .8589  

84  UNLV  Mountain West  .8589  

86  Bowling Green  MAC  .8511  

86  Ohio  MAC  .8511  

88  Idaho  WAC  .8494  

88  Nevada  WAC  .8494  

90  San Jose State  WAC  .840  

91  Kent State  MAC  .8332  

91  Miami (Ohio)  MAC  .8332  

93  Tulsa  Conf. USA  .818  

94  Marshall  Conf. USA  .7734  

94  Memphis  Conf. USA  .7734  

94  Tulane  Conf. USA  .7734  

94  UAB  Conf. USA  .7734  

98  Utah  Mountain West  .767  

99  Louisiana-Lafayette  Sun Belt  .7536  

100  Louisiana-Monroe  Sun Belt  .7535  

101  Buffalo  MAC  .7421  

102  Eastern Michigan  MAC  .7240  

103  Western Michigan  MAC  .733  

104  Akron  MAC  .7242  

105  Northern Illinois  MAC  .7152  

105  Toledo  MAC  .7152  

107  Central Michigan  MAC  .706  

108  East Carolina  Conf. USA  .6734  

109  SMU  Conf. USA  .6734  

109  UCF  Conf. USA  .6734  

111  Southern Miss  Conf. USA  .6644  

111  UTEP  Conf. USA  .6644  

113  Florida Atlantic  Sun Belt  .6535  

113  Middle Tennessee  Sun Belt  .6535  

115  Houston  Conf. USA  .646  

116  North Texas  Sun Belt  .6356  

116  Troy  Sun Belt  .6356  

118  Arkansas State  Sun Belt  .626  

119  Florida International  Sun Belt  .617  

Toughest Schedules

[Jim Johnson]

That makes sense...

Out of our 11 games, we have 7 teams that went to Bowls last year:

Miami, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Connecticut, and Syracuse... Only Louisville won 10 games last year (of course, only 9 teams in all of Division I-A won 10+ regular season games last year)...

In their analysis - 7 of the Big East's 8 teams are in the Top 12 (Louisville #28 is the lowest)...

However... Cincinnati is almost a brand new team (losing just about every starter from a team that went 6-5 last year)... U Conn, which went 3-3 in Big East play, is under a new QB... so is 6-5 Syracuse... so I don't know if they should count as much as CBS has assumed...

I would break down our schedule like this - from Hardest to Easiest

GAMES WE PROBABLY WON'T WIN: Miami & Pittsburgh

---------------

GAMES WE COULD WIN: Penn State, Louisville, & West Virginia

---------------

GAMES WE SHOULD WIN: Syracuse & Connecticut

---------------

GAMES WE PROBABLY WILL WIN: Rutgers, Cincinnati, UCF, & FAMU

So, I figure - last year's team could go 4-7 against this schedule.

With a little improvement, we should go 6-5...

With a little luck, we could go 7-4, 8-3, or 9-2...

With God playing for us, we could go 10-1 or 11-0...

JMHO

[Metro_Retro_Bull]

Wow, look how far the UCF (109 of 119)-lead new-look CUSA (11 of 12)has fallen even before playing a game. Definitely some sloppy seconds here ...

[BullDoug]

Jim, IMO (wishful thinking), I would drop Penn State one level.  With  the Bulls having Andre Hall returning kicks and carrying the rock, anything is possible especially when the Nittany Lions  score as much as an altar boy at a nun's convention .

[TripleB]

Wow, look how far the UCF (109 of 119)-lead new-look CUSA (11 of 12)has fallen even before playing a game.

I doubt they fell very far, though. Their SOS probably wasn't much higher than 109 last year .....

[USFFan]

I would break down our schedule like this - from Hardest to Easiest

GAMES WE PROBABLY WON'T WIN: Miami & Pittsburgh

---------------

GAMES WE COULD WIN: Penn State, Louisville, & West Virginia

---------------

GAMES WE SHOULD WIN: Syracuse & Connecticut

---------------

GAMES WE PROBABLY WILL WIN: Rutgers, Cincinnati, UCF, & FAMU

So, I figure - last year's team could go 4-7 against this schedule.

With a little improvement, we should go 6-5...

With a little luck, we could go 7-4, 8-3, or 9-2...

With God playing for us, we could go 10-1 or 11-0...

JMHO

I think you're highly underestimating Rutgers.  Let's not forget that this is the first year we're likely to have to play outdoor games under winter conditions...

USFFan

[YourBoss]

"that makes sense"  Are you kidding me.  

Do you really think that USF has a tougher schedule than FSU who plays Miami, UF, Cuse, not to mention GT, BC, NCSU amongst others.  How about UF playing UF, UT, USC, UGA amongst others.

The joke of the whole computation is it does not take into count what teams went to what bowls.  There is a big difference with Cincy going to their bowl and UGA going to their bowl.

[USFPDiddy]

"that makes sense"  Are you kidding me.  

Do you really think that USF has a tougher schedule than FSU who plays Miami, UF, Cuse, not to mention GT, BC, NCSU amongst others.  How about UF playing UF, UT, USC, UGA amongst others.

The joke of the whole computation is it does not take into count what teams went to what bowls.  There is a big difference with Cincy going to their bowl and UGA going to their bowl.

You're trying to use names as having more meaning than records, while this is putting more emphasis on records than school names.

You can't do either and get the right answer.  Dont forget that USF also plays Miami and Cuse, and that UL, WVU, and Pitt are fair trades for GT, BC, and NCST, perhaps even better.  The "amongst others" is really more of the easy teams.  FSU routinely smokes teams like duke etc.

USF and the Big 3 all have difficult schedules this year, but to say FSU's or Miami's is clearly stronger is nothing short of pure ignorance, especially if Penn State turns out to be a good again.

[GarySJ]

As much as I hate to agree with FotbalGuru V19.1.0.4, he's right on this one. No way is USF's schedule the 8th toughest in the country. The formula given for this calculation is silly. It does not account for the difference between Rose Bowl opposition and GMAC Bowl opposition.

[Jim Johnson]

I think you're highly underestimating Rutgers.  Let's not forget that this is the first year we're likely to have to play outdoor games under winter conditions...

USFFan

Well, I would not call November 5th "winter conditions" in New Jersey... (U Conn, on the other hand, will be a cold day for us)... It will be about 60 degrees or so...

(Source: http://www.weather.com/activities/other/other/weather/climo-monthly-graph.html?locid=USNJ0348&from=search)

As for underestimating Rutgers...

They went 4-7 last year with wins over Michigan State, Kent State, Vanderbilt, and Temple (none of whom went to a bowl game , a combined 14-31)...

USF went 4-7 last year with wins over Tenn Tech, TCU, UAB, & ECU (one bowl team, and a combined record of 16-19)...