Toughest Schedules:

[Jim Johnson]

As much as I hate to agree with FotbalGuru V19.1.0.4, he's right on this one. No way is USF's schedule the 8th toughest in the country. The formula given for this calculation is silly. It does not account for the difference between Rose Bowl opposition and GMAC Bowl opposition.

You mean there is a difference?  ;-)    [j/k]

They don't give credit for playing a bowl winner, only for playing a team that made a bowl appearance... which basically gives credit for playing teams with a winning record.  You may have a problem with the formula, but the Rose vs GMAC is irrelevant.

Here is a mathematical representation of the formula:

ConfPCT = 2004 Winning percentage of the conference (Sum of the Wins of all teams in the conference / Sum of the games played by all teams in the conference)

ConfBowlPCT = 75% of 2004 Winning percentage of the conference teams that went to a bowl game (0.75 x [sum of wins of bowl teams / sum of games played by bowl teams])

# Bowl Teams = If a team on the 2005 schedule played in a 2004 bowl.

# 10-Win Teams = If a team on the 2005 schedule won 10 games in 2004. (There were 12 of them, 3 of whom won their 10th game in a bowl game)

ConfPCT + ConfBowlPCT = Base number

Team's factor = Base number + (.0178 x Bowl Teams) + (.109 x # 10-Win Teams)

The traditional SOS factor is usually found by taking their 2/3rds of a team's opponents' winning percentage and adding 1/3rd of the team's opponents' opponents' winning percentage... not sure what that result would be for USF this year.

The only real problem with either calculation is that they don't take into consideration any changes in personnel (players or coaching)... which has an impact.

[GarySJ]

I understand the formula. I just don't think it's a very good one.

[USFFan]

Well, I would not call November 5th "winter conditions" in New Jersey... (U Conn, on the other hand, will be a cold day for us)... It will be about 60 degrees or so...

(Source: http://www.weather.com/activities/other/other/weather/climo-monthly-graph.html?locid=USNJ0348&from=search)

As for underestimating Rutgers...

They went 4-7 last year with wins over Michigan State, Kent State, Vanderbilt, and Temple (none of whom went to a bowl game , a combined 14-31)...

USF went 4-7 last year with wins over Tenn Tech, TCU, UAB, & ECU (one bowl team, and a combined record of 16-19)...

Well, the winter conditions was more of a general statement.  I lived in New Jersey long enough to know that early November is more fall-like than winter.  However, I still think that it's a stretch to say that we "probably will win" at Rutgers, when we're playing a Penn State team that had an identical record to both of us and you consider that game much more of a toss-up...

USFFan

[Guest Sprtsfn627]

Rutgers will be tough next year...and if they're not, Schiano is gone.  This is their year.

The only way to give a proper SOS is to do it at the end of the season...how are we to know the toughness of the teams before hand? We don't.

[YourBoss]

Gary, I have no idea who you are talking about, but I agree with you on this matter.  This whole calculation is a joke.  

Diddy, if you purely take wins and losses, than you must look at who those wins and losses came against.  Most of the Big East did not play a very tough schedule, while UF and FSU's wins came against much tougher competition.  

[USFPDiddy]

Gary, I have no idea who you are talking about, but I agree with you on this matter.  This whole calculation is a joke.  

Diddy, if you purely take wins and losses, than you must look at who those wins and losses came against.  Most of the Big East did not play a very tough schedule, while UF and FSU's wins came against much tougher competition.  

Thats what i was getting at, if you read it carefully.  That you can't just look at names OR records, you have to take a realistic look at how good a team is based on, well, how good that team is.  But doing that in a 119 team series is a little rough for ones head, so they make crappy formulas.

It's hard to deny my point though.  FSU really doesnt seem to play a tougher schedule than us.  We have 2 similar opponents (One of them is both teams hardest game), and a bunch of other ones that are very difficult to distinguish between.  I'll tell you though, UL looked much better than georgia tech last year.  If you want to say WVU is worse than BC i suppose you could try, but there just isnt much difference.  NC state and pitt didnt seem far and away different last year, either.

8th strongest? probably not.  Top 25 strongest?  Highly likely.  The reason for these formulas?  Unknown, or maybe they just get our attention, and are better than nothing.

[S p e n c e]

Wow, that's an awfully high ranking, no way we are #8.  But this does show to all of those optimists on another thread that say they will only be satisfied if we go bowling this year just how hard it will be to do so.

[smazza]

it is never rutgers year

but guys we don't have a qb yet

man will you die hards be surprised this year

if we don't  lose by 20 against penn state we will be lucky

[Jim Johnson]

Well, the winter conditions was more of a general statement.  I lived in New Jersey long enough to know that early November is more fall-like than winter.  However, I still think that it's a stretch to say that we "probably will win" at Rutgers, when we're playing a Penn State team that had an identical record to both of us and you consider that game much more of a toss-up...

USFFan

Simple: Penn State had a top 5 defense last year and is returning every starter.  Rutgers didn't.

Our problems on offense last year point to a potential problem.  What happens when a STOPPABLE force runs into an IMMOVABLE object?  The force is stopped -- therefore, we will be lucky to get first downs at Penn State, let alone score some points.

As for Rutgers, nothing I have seen from them shows me that they have any ability to beat teams equal to or greater than they are.  Last year's win over Michigan State was a fluke - 1st game of the year... and it was followed up by a Home LOSS to I-AA New Hampshire.

So, in my not-so-expert analysis, USF will probably beat Rutgers... and has a chance to beat Penn State if we can move the ball or get some turnovers.

[lotsofbull99]

it is never rutgers year

but guys we don't have a qb yet

man will you die hards be surprised this year

if we don't  lose by 20 against penn state we will be lucky

Penn State will destroy us