UCF and USF Commit Together (Official Statement)

[Sellular1]

As long as the B12 has Texas and Oklahoma, there is absolutely NOTHING else they HAVE to do.

Steers and queers...

[Florida Bull]

As long as the B12 has Texas and Oklahoma, there is absolutely NOTHING else they HAVE to do.

The Big East used to have Miami and probably more football prestige than the ACC.

What is important in the long-term would not necessarily be what they bring to the Big 12, but if it is worth it for them to stay.

If the Big 12 becomes more like the Big East but without the large media presence and great basketball, of course Oklahoma and Texas could lose recruits and fans to Texas A&M and the SEC. The expansion options may not be USC, Notre Dame, and Michigan, or even Florida State.

But, the quickest way to protect the Big 12 and media exposure for the members thereof, is to add decent universities in large media markets in respectable states.

[jvwvu]

I am also skeptical that the Big 12 will expand without ACC members. However, I disagree with the notion that the Big 12 should not expand.

They are the only AQ conference without a conference championship game, struggling with rankings in spite of actually great football strength (sound familiar to other Big East fans?), have the smallest media and population footprint, and are gradually becoming less relevant in the national media-like the once proud Big East.

Many of their most outspoken fans brag that their tv contract makes more than the ACC's. Well, there is a decent rumor claiming the Atlantic Coast Conference will be on par with the Big 12 where the latter loses one of its only few confirmable objective advantages it had between the two conferences. And, the ACC could start making even more money in its tv contract.

The Big 12 absolutely has to expand to 12, almost ASAP.

I am 90% sure the Big 12 does not expand past 10 without ACC schools, the other 10% would include BYU and someone probably west coast based.

The market is the smallest and tv rankings somewhat decreasing but Fox/ESPN won't pay more to expand. Fox will for certain teams, that ESPN has in the ACC (FSU & Miami), so FOX is on their own. Also FOX is moving more into the TV coverage and thus will help keep Big 12 nationally relevant tho not as great as once was giving up 3 markets (Neb, Colo, Mizz) for 1 (WVU) since Texas A&M and TCU already overlap Texas and Baylor.

Money issues are real

Big 12 tier 1&2 contract is $20 million a year, Tier 3 stays with school (Texas is $15 mil with Longhorn, ESPN (tv only), WVU's is looking like $10 mil a year with IMG (tv, radio, and some marketing). The BCS split with Sugar bowl money is another $9 mil. The other bowls are expected to be another $2 mil. Therefore WVU is looking at $41mil after their shares are completed. WVU/TCU is on 50,67,80,100% on the Big 12 shared money, non Tier 3

The ACC deal is being reported as $19 mil is correct but this is based on the end of the contract's $17 mil and adding another $2 mil after ND joins. This includes all three tiers, and Raycomm (Swoffords son a executive of) and ESPN is looking at adding a network. Maryland has told WAsh Post that number is closer to average of $15-16 mil a year as $17 mil does not happen until end of contract and ND only adds $1-2 mil instead of $2 mil reported. Let's take FSU and say $18 mil a year, add $2 mil for radio and some marketing, BCS/Orange Bowl share is $6.5 other bowls are $2 mil. So FSU is looking at $28.5 mil.

Here's the kicker Big12 will expand with a conference game if it's worth it, ie adding money to contract. That majic number is $25 mil per team and Fox will pay it for FSU and Miami (assumes staying at 12 and not 14). That's the extra $100 mil a year added to the contract. With hat WVU would be getting $46 mil a year, and that's what the valuation that's being marketed to FSU and Miami. Thats an extra $17.5 mil a year extra.

The Big 12 does not have to expand ASAP because its good for 5-7 years easily as 10, after that if B1G does not expand then it's presumed ACC lives as 4th conference and not the Big 12. Why because 8 votes need to dissolve GOR and hats when PAC, B1G and SEC move to 16 with ACC.

The reason why Big12 will remain strong is because of that Longhorn network deal with ESPN. The other guys is going 12 years along with Big 12 GOR. This is why the I-4 cooridor (USF/UCF) is not liked or valued, if it was a network type situation it would be different, these two teams or even UL would have been considered. Right now the only former BE teams being looked at by Big 12 is UL and Cincy (or possibly Pitt) if they went to 16.

The next move is B1G's, if not dominos wont fall until possibly after 2014 when playoffs get looked at.

Edited December 18, 2012 by jvwvu

[Florida Bull]

TCU adds a large media market. But, several on your side claim only marquee matchups, not actual media market location matter-largely to claim USF is a worthless add even with the Tampa-St. Petersburg market. But, that FSU is the only worthy Florida addition (other than presumably UF and perhaps Miami following FSU).

Well, to keep the argument consistent, inviting TCU instead of begging Texas A&M to stay may have likewise been a waste of time. TCU is nowhere the brand Texas A&M has been-a huge loss in your conference fanbase's heavily valued "marquee matchups."

You can't have it both ways.

I should also add, the Big East was nationally televised in primetime, too. Just having FOX is not enough to keep up with other elite conferences.

Edited December 18, 2012 by Florida Bull

[Florida Bull]

I think different conferences define Tier 3 differently, so we may not be comparing exactly the same things in that regard. There is also a tradeoff in money and exposure anyways. Football's primary purpose is actually to advertise not directly make money on its own. Lest, football would be dropped or at least largely scaled back by most universities.

TV contract revenue is a fraction of total athletic revenue, which is a fraction of a university's total revenue and endowment.

Miami and FSU going to the Big 12 by themselves? Extremely unlikely. Not only would they lose key contacts in academic fields, east coast attention, they would have to adjust their recruiting and marketing strategies without actually gaining more than they have now. I also find it interesting how a conference can deny potential and a modest profit from an expansion candidate, but universities will be more than happy to be fish out of water with promises of potential and modest football profit.

Edited December 18, 2012 by Florida Bull

[jvwvu]

TCU adds a large media market. But, several on your side claim only marquee matchups, not actual media market location matter-largely to claim USF is a worthless add even with the Tampa-St. Petersburg market. But, that FSU is the only worthy Florida addition (other than presumably UF and perhaps Miami following FSU).

Well, to keep the argument consistent, inviting TCU instead of begging Texas A&M to stay may have likewise been a waste of time. TCU is nowhere the brand Texas A&M has been-a huge loss in your conference fanbase's heavily valued "marquee matchups."

You can't have it both ways.

I should also add, the Big East was nationally televised in primetime, too. Just having FOX is not enough to keep up with other elite conferences.

Me and most now would have preferred 9&10 of WVU and UL over TCU, but Big12 needed someone in a hurry TCu. A&M ( who wanted out from Texas and would not have stayed with no matter what begging) was a huge lost compared to TCU, as marque match ups are the preference in this format versus the SEC/B1G format. But TCU/Texas A&M/Texas market all overlap and even though Aggies hate Texas they watch the games hoping they lose since they are overlapping areas. The contract favors a national market marque game but does need a regional base to get as much viewers as possible, which is help to USF/UCF.

Having Fox helps but ESPN has first choice tier 1 and 2 choice games are on ABC/ESPN, which is very important.

[jvwvu]

I think different conferences define Tier 3 differently, so we may not be comparing exactly the same things in that regard. There is also a tradeoff in money and exposure anyways. Football's primary purpose is actually to advertise not directly make money on its own. Lest, football would be dropped or at least largely scaled back by most universities.

TV contract revenue is a fraction of total athletic revenue, which is a fraction of a university's total revenue and endowment.

Miami and FSU going to the Big 12 by themselves? Extremely unlikely. Not only would they lose key contacts in academic fields, east coast attention, they would have to adjust their recruiting and marketing strategies without actually gaining more than they have now. I also find it interesting how a conference can deny potential and a modest profit from an expansion candidate, but universities will be more than happy to be fish out of water with promises of potential and modest football profit.

Tier 3 is broken down in 3 types TV, Radio, Some Marketing - WVU did this in house up till this year and netted about $6 mil in profit a year after paying salaries and such

TV is games that are regional WVU had 2 of these this year - 1. Semi-Home game against JMU at FedEx field (we got paid $1.5 mil to play ther and to keep tv rights) and Kansas game, all other games was on FX, ABC/ESPN, or Fox broadcasted nationally 2. Basketball regionally and any other sport broadcast- WVU is estimated at $6 mil a year

Radio - radio broadcast of all games -$2 mil

Marketing - sales to companies using WVU, (commercials, newspaper ads and such). I don't believe this includes the collegiate merchansing agreement already in place- $2 mil

FSU and Miami by themselves possibly, they won't be first to leave so if they come it depends on who SEC and B1G takes. Of course FSU is one, Miami is 2, three gets a little interesting as Clemson and VaTech are neck and neck if those 2 are available then no question 14 but is its NCSt, I am not sure Clemson gets taken initially.

Also with 12 FSU and Miami gets a UT, OU more often than at 14. I would assume cross rivalries will be FSU/UT, Miami/OU, WVU/OSU, TCU/KSt, Baylor/Tech, ISU/Kansas

Edited December 18, 2012 by jvwvu

[Florida Bull]

Will the Big 12 be good, if the round robin regularly blocks teams from reaching the 4 team playoffs?

The I-4 Corridor is not valuable?

Is the Big 12 willing to pay $50+ million just for Louisville?

If the Big 12 is too stubborn to expand, current trends will only weaken it. I noticed Big 12 fans boasting about the terminal decline of USF football-if not athletics-due to conference realignment. But, several Big 12 university's fanbases may someday be in our shoes.

[jvwvu]

Will the Big 12 be good, if the round robin regularly blocks teams from reaching the 4 team playoffs?

The I-4 Corridor is not valuable?

Is the Big 12 willing to pay $50+ million just for Louisville?

If the Big 12 is too stubborn to expand, current trends will only weaken it. I noticed Big 12 fans boasting about the terminal decline of USF football-if not athletics-due to conference realignment. But, several Big 12 university's fanbases may someday be in our shoes.

That's why to expand but without FSU it doesnt Yet and hats why it gets ate up

In the current setup I-4 (referring to USF/UCF) no, is I-4 people watching yes, but that is why Red River Rivalry will be hown nationally up against other games, so that 1-2% of I-4 people watching helps

No but UL would if they were given an offer as 15 or 16

I agree thats why I say either expand now or blowup GOR before 2016-2017 when B1Gs contract is up

Edited December 18, 2012 by jvwvu

[Gismo]

LHN is what killed the Big 12. It is a huge part of why Texas A&M and Mizzouri left. The schools that had the means to leave did because they were sick of Texas treating everyone else like dirt.

Edited December 18, 2012 by Gismo