What if this is as good as it gets?

[Bull Dozer]

Sounds to me like some people buy into the media hype about the BE being a weak conference.  Turn off the ESPN fellas this conference is solid. 

[bullsluvinlady]

Assuming CJL coaches out his contract till 2014, what if our worst fears are realized? We go to 10 straight Papa John's, St Pete, Yankee level bowls. Go 6-6 to 8-4 every year, get good recruits and see us get beat by better coached teams and watch Leavitt go nuts on the sidelines. What would become of our program? How apathetic would the fan base become? Or if that were the case, at what point would someone (i.e. Wollard, Genshaft) intercede.

We are just starting to see the fan base get restless. 07' was great but we were all shocked by our performance in the Sun Bowl. Then 08' same deal. 09' another repeat performance. What if 10, 11 & 12' all go the same way? Beat someone unexpected, lose to someone unexpected. Get a lower tier bowl. How ugly would the fan base really have to get before something could be done.

These are just hypotheticals. I hope the best for CJL and hope none of this happens, that he wins a Big East Championship or 2 but I think the natives are starting to become restless. I think next season will be telling but at this point it is hard to see us winning more than 3 to 4 conference games and the 3 patsies we line up every year.

Well realistically we are probably looking at an 8-4 season at best next year.  We have 4 road games against teams who could (and probably will be) ranked in the Top 20 (at UF, Miami, Cincy & WVU).  Thats a tough road schedule even for the Ohio St/USC's of the world.  A 9-3 season against our schedule next year would be a huge sucess.  

2011 will be a real telling year.  The big recruiting class of 09 will all be Sophs/Juniors with some substantial playing time under their belts.  We'll hopefully have a good 2010 recruiting class providing the much needed improved depth.  BJ will have had 2 full years of starting and hopefully progressed by that time.  We'll have the tough games against Miami, WVU & Cincy at home.  This year in my mind is the true barometer test for Leavitt and company.  All the 'excuses' as you all call them (lack of depth, lower level talent) will be worked out for the most part, the schedules favorable and they'll have an experienced QB.  Anything less than a 9-3 season will be a disappointment, and may prove you all right that Leavitt is not the person to help lead this team past the next platuea (sp?).

I really can't see anyone coming up with a logical rebuttal to that ...

There isn't much to rebut. It's a fair and safe analysis.

The only problem I can see with that plan is a dependence upon BJ "hopefully" having progressed by 2011... At this point there really is no reason to take for granted that BJ will progress. It certainly isn't a given.

If our most recent star quarterback (the venerable Mattimus Grotheus) is any indication, quantifiable progression is not guaranteed. Yes, Matt learned to throw more balls away instead of taking as many of the big sacks he took earlier in his career, and he calmed his happy feet down in the pocket... But in the end, neither his stats (yardage, comp. %, TD/INT ratio, QB rating) nor his win percentage varied much from year to year. Even in his 3 games this year he showed flashes of poor decision-making in the pass game.

This is not a slam on Matt by any means. He was an incredible player that gave this program a name and a face. It is more a testament to the coaching staff's inability to really coach up and develop a quarterback (or ANY offensive skill player, for that matter) to their full potential. Grothe was essentially Grothe, from the minute he stepped in for Pat Julmiste against McNeese to the minute he left the game in the 2nd quarter against Charleston Southern.

BJ could very well be the same BJ in 2011 as he is in 2009. And what BJ is in 2009 is an inconsistent, barely-20-year-old kid who has twice the arm Matt had but half the on-field leadership, cuz even from the start as a freshman Matt was a leader and a competitor.

If Leavitt, Canales and company couldn't coach up a solid kid like Grothe into more than an 18TD/14INT, 9-4 quarterback, there is absolutely no guarantee BJ Daniels will be a well-developed, highly-trained world-beater in 2011. Don't take anything for granted.

And if Bullshiznits' 9-3 prediction is our goal even with a "favorable" schedule in 2011, then the answer to the question posed by this thread is obvious: YES, this IS as good as it gets, because 9-4 is the best we've ever done, the best we can hope for this year, and the prediction for 2011 is "nothing less than 9-3."

I'd hope a 10-win season could sneak itself in there somewhere. Maybe a Big East championship, which is hard to do at 9-3.

[LunchTimeBully]

Assuming CJL coaches out his contract till 2014, what if our worst fears are realized? We go to 10 straight Papa John's, St Pete, Yankee level bowls. Go 6-6 to 8-4 every year, get good recruits and see us get beat by better coached teams and watch Leavitt go nuts on the sidelines. What would become of our program? How apathetic would the fan base become? Or if that were the case, at what point would someone (i.e. Wollard, Genshaft) intercede.

We are just starting to see the fan base get restless. 07' was great but we were all shocked by our performance in the Sun Bowl. Then 08' same deal. 09' another repeat performance. What if 10, 11 & 12' all go the same way? Beat someone unexpected, lose to someone unexpected. Get a lower tier bowl. How ugly would the fan base really have to get before something could be done.

These are just hypotheticals. I hope the best for CJL and hope none of this happens, that he wins a Big East Championship or 2 but I think the natives are starting to become restless. I think next season will be telling but at this point it is hard to see us winning more than 3 to 4 conference games and the 3 patsies we line up every year.

Well realistically we are probably looking at an 8-4 season at best next year.  We have 4 road games against teams who could (and probably will be) ranked in the Top 20 (at UF, Miami, Cincy & WVU).  Thats a tough road schedule even for the Ohio St/USC's of the world.  A 9-3 season against our schedule next year would be a huge sucess.  

2011 will be a real telling year.  The big recruiting class of 09 will all be Sophs/Juniors with some substantial playing time under their belts.  We'll hopefully have a good 2010 recruiting class providing the much needed improved depth.  BJ will have had 2 full years of starting and hopefully progressed by that time.  We'll have the tough games against Miami, WVU & Cincy at home.  This year in my mind is the true barometer test for Leavitt and company.  All the 'excuses' as you all call them (lack of depth, lower level talent) will be worked out for the most part, the schedules favorable and they'll have an experienced QB.  Anything less than a 9-3 season will be a disappointment, and may prove you all right that Leavitt is not the person to help lead this team past the next platuea (sp?).

Fair Enough. You got 2 years, Leavitt. I want at least 5-2 in the Big East and at least 9-3 overall. Not too much to ask for given the amount of time you have had to develop in the weakest BCS conference and recruiting  in Florida.

[LunchTimeBully]

If we make 10 straight bowl games, I'll take it!

way too easy to make bowl games these day.  Expectations have to be a little higher than that. 

Not really.  Considering how less than a third of the bowl subdivision teams have been able to do it five years in a row... to do it five more times would put USF on a very short list.

---

What worries me is that this is not as good as it gets it is what the "fans" will accept.  The Oh Well attitude, rather than get angry at the real source of the problems, and demanding something be done.

Do you actually believe that the university doesn't have a continency fund to buy out Leavitt's contract?  That would be just **** poor planning wouldn't it?  WAITTTTTTTTTT....that's SOP for USF.

See, the problem is the glass half empty versus the glass half full mentality... My expectations for the program are to make a bowl game every year - hopefully some of those years the bowl game will be a BCS bowl - but I won't be upset that we haven't won the championship yet.  I'm not "settling" for lowered expectations, I just come from the era before football (let alone before I-A or before C-USA or even before the Big East)... so getting to a bowl game, to me, is a successful season.

Heck, I won't even be upset if we don't win the Big East before 2014... why? Look at how long other schools' droughts are... Clemson hasn't won the ACC since 1991... almost 20 years without a conference championship.... So, my "expectation" is that USF wins a Big East championship by about 2024 (our 20th season in the Big East)...

And yes, I believe USF does not have the money to buy out Leavitt's contract.  It's not poor planning, it's called a small athletics budget (relatively) and an even smaller donor base.

Clemson has also had multiple coaching changes between that time because of their failure to win a conference championship... Leavitt has until 2014 otherwise he gets run into early retirement like a Legend named Bobby Bowden.

USF has all the tools to win a conference championship waaayyy before 2024 and if you are willing to wait until then you are simply settling for mediocrity. Leavitt is the 2nd highest paid coach in the big east and is not producing 2nd place results... do you believe in accountability?

[Bullshiznitz]

Assuming CJL coaches out his contract till 2014, what if our worst fears are realized? We go to 10 straight Papa John's, St Pete, Yankee level bowls. Go 6-6 to 8-4 every year, get good recruits and see us get beat by better coached teams and watch Leavitt go nuts on the sidelines. What would become of our program? How apathetic would the fan base become? Or if that were the case, at what point would someone (i.e. Wollard, Genshaft) intercede.

We are just starting to see the fan base get restless. 07' was great but we were all shocked by our performance in the Sun Bowl. Then 08' same deal. 09' another repeat performance. What if 10, 11 & 12' all go the same way? Beat someone unexpected, lose to someone unexpected. Get a lower tier bowl. How ugly would the fan base really have to get before something could be done.

These are just hypotheticals. I hope the best for CJL and hope none of this happens, that he wins a Big East Championship or 2 but I think the natives are starting to become restless. I think next season will be telling but at this point it is hard to see us winning more than 3 to 4 conference games and the 3 patsies we line up every year.

Well realistically we are probably looking at an 8-4 season at best next year.  We have 4 road games against teams who could (and probably will be) ranked in the Top 20 (at UF, Miami, Cincy & WVU).  Thats a tough road schedule even for the Ohio St/USC's of the world.  A 9-3 season against our schedule next year would be a huge sucess.  

2011 will be a real telling year.  The big recruiting class of 09 will all be Sophs/Juniors with some substantial playing time under their belts.  We'll hopefully have a good 2010 recruiting class providing the much needed improved depth.  BJ will have had 2 full years of starting and hopefully progressed by that time.  We'll have the tough games against Miami, WVU & Cincy at home.  This year in my mind is the true barometer test for Leavitt and company.  All the 'excuses' as you all call them (lack of depth, lower level talent) will be worked out for the most part, the schedules favorable and they'll have an experienced QB.  Anything less than a 9-3 season will be a disappointment, and may prove you all right that Leavitt is not the person to help lead this team past the next platuea (sp?).

I really can't see anyone coming up with a logical rebuttal to that ...

There isn't much to rebut. It's a fair and safe analysis.

The only problem I can see with that plan is a dependence upon BJ "hopefully" having progressed by 2011... At this point there really is no reason to take for granted that BJ will progress. It certainly isn't a given.

If our most recent star quarterback (the venerable Mattimus Grotheus) is any indication, quantifiable progression is not guaranteed. Yes, Matt learned to throw more balls away instead of taking as many of the big sacks he took earlier in his career, and he calmed his happy feet down in the pocket... But in the end, neither his stats (yardage, comp. %, TD/INT ratio, QB rating) nor his win percentage varied much from year to year. Even in his 3 games this year he showed flashes of poor decision-making in the pass game.

This is not a slam on Matt by any means. He was an incredible player that gave this program a name and a face. It is more a testament to the coaching staff's inability to really coach up and develop a quarterback (or ANY offensive skill player, for that matter) to their full potential. Grothe was essentially Grothe, from the minute he stepped in for Pat Julmiste against McNeese to the minute he left the game in the 2nd quarter against Charleston Southern.

BJ could very well be the same BJ in 2011 as he is in 2009. And what BJ is in 2009 is an inconsistent, barely-20-year-old kid who has twice the arm Matt had but half the on-field leadership, cuz even from the start as a freshman Matt was a leader and a competitor.

If Leavitt, Canales and company couldn't coach up a solid kid like Grothe into more than an 18TD/14INT, 9-4 quarterback, there is absolutely no guarantee BJ Daniels will be a well-developed, highly-trained world-beater in 2011. Don't take anything for granted.

And if Bullshiznits' 9-3 prediction is our goal even with a "favorable" schedule in 2011, then the answer to the question posed by this thread is obvious: YES, this IS as good as it gets, because 9-4 is the best we've ever done, the best we can hope for this year, and the prediction for 2011 is "nothing less than 9-3."

I'd hope a 10-win season could sneak itself in there somewhere. Maybe a Big East championship, which is hard to do at 9-3.

Well thats the hardest part when people pose these "in the future" type questions.   Not only do we have no idea how good BJ will be (ranging anywhere from less than grothe to the next Vince Young), we have no idea how good our competition will be.   In my mind, if we keep status quo moving forward a 9-3 season in 2011 will be better than a 9-3 season in 2007.  Our schedule could be significantly tougher with up to 5 ranked opponents (maybe more - ND, Miami, Cincy, Pitt & WVU) compared to the 2 we played in 2007 (3 if you count Cincy who ended up ranked).  Although a 9-3 season could also be a disappointment if Kelly leaves Cincy this year and their program goes all "Louisville" on them, if Bill Stewart continues to slowly drive WVU down from their high with Rich Rod, or if the "Stache" goes back to being the Stache.  Then in that case, anything less than a Big East championship would be failure.  

[Cow Pie]

I agree with Dixie (except about Mangino) we need to gut the offensive staff this offseason. 

I'm on the fence about Mangino as well, there is so much talent out there right now via head coaches being fired I don't see how we can't pick up a steal this off season.

I think the only reason why I'd like to see Mangino as our OC is so that I can make one of these signs...

[Bull-by-Marriage]

OK, I was horribly mistaken, and completely over spoke about the # of time we get our asses handed to us. However according to gousfbulls.com I present the following

Miami Loss 7-27 10/1/05

UL Loss 8-31 11/18/06

Oregon Loss 21-56 12/31/07

Rutgers Loss 16-49 11/15/08

Pitt Loss 14-41  10/24/09

Rutgers Loss 0-31 11/12/09

Miami Loss  10-31 11/28/09

7 blowout losses the last 5 years. Now, I want at least 1 of you to tell me that it's OK, that we are going to have at least 1 game a year in which our team quits. Go, ahead, tell me.

Well I'd like to know first how the hell you associate a 20pt+ loss as automatically = team "quit"

I certainly didn't see us "quit" in the 05 game against Miami, rather get beat by the better team.  I also didn't see us "quit" in the Oregon loss (get thoroughly out gameplanned...absolutely....quit....not really).  And from my veiw point, the team didn't quit in the game against Miami this year....rather get thouroughly dominated at both lines of scrimmage.  

Maybe you're failing to see that they are teams who are truly BETTER than us.  We're not UF.  When we play very good teams, and either don't have luck go our way, get outgameplanned, etc.... there's a good chance at losing by a lot.  Thats how college football works.  

Have we had a few games where the team quit....yeah probably....the Rutgers game looked gross this year....but to associate every blow out loss with the team "quitting"....well thats just riduculous.  

But continue on with your.....

So, are you saying that if we lose by a large amount it's only because the other team was better? Again, I ask, do you think that it's acceptable to get blown out, at least once a year. I know that we are not UF, or USC, no one has said that we are. I don't think that it's acceptable to be guaranteed at least 1 blow out loss a year. If you ask most people that have played sports, they will tell you that our football teams have given up on more than one occasion.  I just want a team that never quits, it is not acceptable to ever quit during a game or a season.

Mike I ask you, do you think that it's OK for an FBS football team to ever quit?

What about our current situation would you not change at all?