USF Football's 5 year plan

[Guest]

i dont want to spend the time to dig up the research (it would be interesting but i just dont have the time)  but if you were to take a look at the first 7 rounds of the nfl draft (it use to be much longer but since it is cut back to 7 now that is what should be used)

but take the first 7 rounds of the draft over the last 20 years.  you will most certainly see a shift in the amount of schools getting multiple players drafted.  that is directly related the media attention and kids willing to go to other schools because they can still make it to the next level from there.

20 years ago if you had dreams of playing the nfl you better of gone to a UCLA, USC, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas AM, Michigan, Ohio St, Penn St, etc.

Okay... here you go:

In the first NINE rounds of 1988 there were 248 picks from 112 schools... in the SEVEN rounds of 2008 there were 252 picks from 118 schools...

In 1988 Central Florida, Cal State-Fullerton, Montana, and Louisiana Monroe each had as many players drafted in 9 rounds (2) as Florida State or Southern Cal or Penn State or Texas...

In 1988 30 schools had 3 or more players drafted... in 2008 it was 37 schools...

In 1988 the only non-BCS school to get 3 or more drafted qwas UNLV... in 2008, San Diego State had four and UCF and UTEP each had 3 players...

The disparity is not as big as you might think...

[fhemmer209]

currently none of the big three has ever lost to another Florida team besides the Gayturds.

Hurricanes lost 13-16 to Florida A&M in 1979.

[The New "U"]

USF has done very well-- perhaps as well as can be expected for a startup 1-AA to a BCS conference in such a short time.

but anyone who thinks the meteoric rise was going to continue at the same rate is fooling themselves. I think we can still make progress but be prepared to be more patient than ever because USF is entering an extremely difficult time of diminishing returns.

Well said.

I have family/friends that's watched the program progress significantly even as I'm (finally) wrapping up my graduate degree here. They've all been amazed with the progress we've made and for whatever reason expect us to be competing for national championships pretty soon.

I definitely think diminishing returns, which doesn't only apply to economics, applies to the program. Effectively as you "optimize" something it begins getting more difficult to achieve the same gain. For instance say you have a bike and you find the means to upgrade it to a motorcycle. You made significant gains that'll be impossible to get again by keeping the current two wheeled vehicle. All you can really do is upgrade the parts of the motorcycle - your gains have diminished.

As the program continues do not expect the same leaps as before. We'll have more growing pains (i.e. insufficient coaching talent, facilities, talent, etc) and no longer are able to achieve such massive gains (as making the BCS jump). The only major jump foreseeable would be changing to the SEC. We got "lucky" by getting into a BCS conference so quickly, I think if say, Boise State or Utah, entered into a BCS conference their rise would be even more amazing.

[CRBULL]

In these economics comparisons I think a piece that is being left out is that not all of the gains from the move to the Big East have been realized. Specifically, recruiting is only just now getting up to a BCS level and we have yet to see the full return from the first waves of BCS-level recruits that the state of Florida can provide.

[Rizman]

In these economics comparisons I think a piece that is being left out is that not all of the gains from the move to the Big East have been realized. Specifically, recruiting is only just now getting up to a BCS level and we have yet to see the full return from the first waves of BCS-level recruits that the state of Florida can provide.

I do think you have a point, our recruits are getting better, but last year we were out coached at games.  Rutgers, Cincy, Louisville.  Teams beat us because of coaching.  Of course, we beat teams like Kansas because of emotion not necessarly coaching.  I am not sure if Leavitt is the problem, or if it was the previous coordinators.  We will find out, because we have the talent, now the question is can Leavitt coach them to win consistently and take the Big East title.

[MikeG]

In these economics comparisons I think a piece that is being left out is that not all of the gains from the move to the Big East have been realized. Specifically, recruiting is only just now getting up to a BCS level and we have yet to see the full return from the first waves of BCS-level recruits that the state of Florida can provide.

I do think you have a point, our recruits are getting better, but last year we were out coached at games.  Rutgers, Cincy, Louisville.  Teams beat us because of coaching.  Of course, we beat teams like Kansas because of emotion not necessarly coaching.  I am not sure if Leavitt is the problem, or if it was the previous coordinators.  We will find out, because we have the talent, now the question is can Leavitt coach them to win consistently and take the Big East title.

interesting take on this I guess--- seems like you attach all losses to coaching and all wins to talent on the field. WHile coaches are integral to getting the players to the school, getting them prepared for games, and many other little things that make the team what it is-- ultimately the team itself and the team they are playing determine outcomes.

YOu can point to a few situations where clearly we got outcoached-- I agree with that. But you can't ignore cases where we outcoached the other team and simply say we out talented that team or we had some emotional edge that had nothing to do with coaching. That seems illogical to me. Coaches can't overcome key injuries to the team short of having great depth. DEPTH imo has been one of our biggest disadvantages over the years and as we go forward, I can see this situation getting much better through better recruiting all around.

[Guest nybullsfan]

These should be our goals every year, in this order.

1. Win the conference. Main goal every year. Gets us to a BCS bowl and a big payout.

2. Maintain an overall winning percentage against UF / FSU / UM. Secondary to winning the BE, but still important for recruiting.

Do these and we'll get good press and lots of TV times

3. Win the NC. In the BE, there's no way we can do this if we don't win the conference, so it's secondary.

.

[Dr.Brahma]

I think we are doing pretty good. We've won a ton of games with lesser talent and are FINALLY beginning to recruit at a high level.

1.  I would love to see our future ercruiting classes meet or exceed this years overall talent level.  I believe this would allow us to build the mutch needed talented depth to get us over the hump and finally continue winning deep into the season when injuries and fatigue inevitebly set in.

2.  At least one BE championship with continues bowl appearances. I would hope to win our BCS game but we need to at least win one outright BE championship.

3.  At least one win against the Big three

4.  See significant increases in donor levels and the # of donors. I think this is probably the MOST important in the long term improvement of the program. I think UCF has a larger donor base than us and that is pitiful.

Overall i think we're on a good path.

[dabull80]

I think we are doing pretty good. We've won a ton of games with lesser talent and are FINALLY beginning to recruit at a high level.

1.  I would love to see our future ercruiting classes meet or exceed this years overall talent level.  I believe this would allow us to build the mutch needed talented depth to get us over the hump and finally continue winning deep into the season when injuries and fatigue inevitebly set in.

2.  At least one BE championship with continues bowl appearances. I would hope to win our BCS game but we need to at least win one outright BE championship.

3.  At least one win against the Big three

4.  See significant increases in donor levels and the # of donors. I think this is probably the MOST important in the long term improvement of the program. I think UCF has a larger donor base than us and that is pitiful.

Overall i think we're on a good path.

# 4 is a very very good point.  I get tired of folks complaining about our Coaches when the fact of the matter is until this year we didn't have the money to compete for big name or experienced coaches.  What do you say to a person - Ahh come to USF and coach at this new and nto so well know school and I can guarentee a pay cut .  Get those donors up and things become easier.