Yet another "USF -- Bowl" thread

[Jim Johnson]

My apologies to those who:

a) believe we can not make it, or

believe we should not look past UAB

This is just an analysis of the current bowl picture for Conference USA....

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Bowl summary

Based on my own analysis below.

Liberty = Louisville

GMAC = Southern Miss

New Orleans = UAB

Fort Worth = Memphis

Hawaii = South Florida

Almost - but you can take it to the bank.

Four teams need one win to make it.  With Southern Mississippi and Louisville both looking at undefeated seasons, the Liberty Bowl will have a challenge -- of course the C-USA champ will be playing the Mountain West #2 team -- not sure wether a Louisville-New Mexico matchup is what we have in mind.

Southern Mississippi (4-0, 5-1) - The Goldean Eagles are in the driver's seat for their season... 11/6 vs Cincy, 11/12 @ Memphis, 11/20 @ TCU, 11/27 vs UAB, and 12/4 vs California... but they may not get to play in Memphis twice because they don't get a shot at Louisville.  USM should win the one game it needs to go bowling, either next week versus Cincy or perhaps @ TCU... but a 10-1 season would make their victory over USF easier to take.  I would say that USM can take the quick drive down to Mobile to face the MAC champ.

Louisville (3-0, 5-1) - The Cardinals were hoping to bust the BCS... but Utah is already there, and with a bunch of other 1-loss teams ahead of them, Uof L won't make it to Tempe.  They go to Memphis for the first time on 11/4, face TCU at Papa John's stadium on 11/10, go to Houston on 11/20, host Cincinnati on 11/27, and finish the season in New Orleans against Tulane on 12/4.  At least they get to party on New Years Eve on Beale Street - before they thrash the Mountain West runner up.

Alabama Birmingham (3-1, 5-2) - First, the Blazers will lose this week to South Florida - so they will need to wait until 11/13 when they host Houston to get that sixth win.  They also travel to West Point to face Army on 11/20 before finishing at USM on 11/27.  UAB will probably head to the Big Easy for the New Orleans Bowl.

Memphis (2-2. 5-2) - The Tigers have the hardest row to hoe.  Hosting Louisville on 11/4, USM on 11/12, going to ECU on 11/20 and then ending the season at Raymond James against South Florida on 11/27.  ECU may be their only chance at a bowl game.  I think they get it, and travel to Fort Worth.

Not quite there.

Three teams need two win a few games to make it -- or rather, can only lose one more to stay eligible.  All three teams face considerable uphill fights.  In the end, USF has the BEST chance to be the fifth bowl team from C-USA.  Remember, "Aloha" means hello!

Cincinnati (3-2, 4-4) - The Bearcats have made it through the easy part of their schedule.  They face USM on 11/6 in Hattiesburg, face the Bulls on 11/20, then end the season in Louisville on 11/27.  Can they win 2 of these? They may not win 1!  Better luck in the Big East.

Texas Christian (2-3, 4-4) - Ouch.  Like Cincy, the Horned Frogs face a daunting challenge to 6 wins.  First, they travel to Louisville on 11/10, then they host Southern Miss on 11/20 before ending the season with Tulane on 11/27.  TCU needs to upset USM or UofL to make it.  Not likely.

South Florida (1-3, 2-4) - We all know the schedule facing the Bulls.  @ UAB this Wedensday, vs ECU on 11/13, @ Cincy on 11/20, vs Memphis on 11/27 and ending the season at home vs Pittsburgh on 12/4.  So, if USF can win its three home games, plus either UAB or Cincinnati - the South Florida will likely be going bowling.   Too bad I can't afford tickets to Honolulu...*

Yeah right.

Three teams will be out if they lose one game.  Chances are highly likely they will.

East Carolina (2-3, 2-5) - The Pirates play South Florida in Tampa on 11/13.  Enough said.  (Okay... They also play @ Houston on 11/6, Memphis at home on 11/20, and end the season @ NC State.)  Can they win out? Can Nader win the Presidency? In theory yes. But in reality...

Army (2-4, 2-5) - Well, the Black Knights came into RayJay and beat the Bulls.  Too bad they won't have that kind of magic for longer -- could have made a bowl game by winning out.  Alas, they face Air Force at home on 11/6, travel to Tulane on 11/13, host UAB on 11/20 and end the year with the Army-Navy game on 12/4.  Air Force and Tulane may be beatable, but UAB and Navy are not.  Good luck as an indy!

Tulane (1-4, 2-5) - The Green Wave has some spirit in it -- beating UAB 59-55... however, their schedule just won't allow them to make it.  They host Navy on 11/6, Army on 11/13, and Lousiville on 12/4 - in the middle they travel to TCU on 11/27.  They can't afford to lose 1 game, but it looks like they may not win 1.  At least there are only 10 months until next season.

Already looking at 2005.

The remaining team is already out of the bowl hunt.  Six losses before November? Now THAT is a rebuilding year.

Houston (2-3, 2-6) - Maybe they will do better with Rice, SMU, and UCF in their conference.  Too bad they will also have to play Southern Miss, UAB and Marshall in 2005.

* = Note this is admittedly wishful thinking.  USF needs to take it one game at a time, and concentrate on beating UAB.

[USFMikeB]

Sorry, but I don't see it happening.  Unfortunately, I also don't think that going to the Hawaii Bowl this year is in the best interest of our program.  Why?  Because we haven't had a good year.  Because we won't bring a lot of people because it is so far away.  Because we won't bring a lot of people because we haven't done well.

Going to the Hawaii Bowl might give us a bad rap on bowl attendance for the future.  I truly hate saying all this, because I want us in a bowl so badly, but it is the reality that I see.

[GarySJ]

Jim, from what I hear the Liberty Bowl does not have to take the Mountain West runnerup. If they lose Utah to the BCS the game becomes at-large and they can take whoever they want.

Boise State is hoping this happens and is angling for an invite to Memphis. But if the Liberty slot comes open I think one of the major conferences will be proactive and work out a deal to send one of their surplus teams there. So UofL could get to play a good Big Ten/Big XII/SEC team in a bowl.

Another compelling possibility, which I just made up: they could invite Southern Miss AND Louisville.

But yeah that 5th CUSA bowl slot is pretty much wide open right now. As for the other four, I think I'd swap Memphis and USM. The Big XII is DEEP this year and whoever goes to the Fort Worth game is going to be a very strong team. USM would make a better matchup; leave Memphis to face the MAC school.

[smazza]

liberty should die to get bosie state

who from bcs conferences would be better

how anyone can think usf has a chance to goinhg to a bowl is a shocker to say the least

[BULLO12]

Nope no Bowl for USF

[bulls96go]

you know...

we thought we were in last year and uab took our candy

so turn around is fair play.

hope we make a good run and finish up strong. then let the bowls fall where they may!

[Cubanbull]

Lets see how we play vs UAB. A win there keeps our hopes alive, a loss just about ends it. A blow out loss and is get ready for next year.

I must say that i agree with Mike, IF we become bowl eligible and get invite to Hawaii not sure we would be a good rep in field and stands which could hurt our future image.

But of course if we DID become bowl eligible it would mean that we went at worst 4-1 rest of the way which would have to mean that we RAISED our game.

No matter what ill be there rooting the Bulls to win.

[WoolyBully]

I dunno sportsfans. Given that UAB is playing strong - and I think will likely win on Wednesday - coupled with the Cincinnati  win and the ECU win (by 10) over Army, I'd be inclinded to put all my chips on the "aint going" square.

[CyberBull]

you know...

we thought we were in last year and uab took our candy

so turn around is fair play.

Bowl or not I really like the sound of that. UAB was responsible for keeping us out of C-USA for two years and as a result cost us a couple bowl game appearances.

[Bull Matrix]

I believe USF will get that bowl spot if we beat UAB. Beating UAB will set the momentum for the rest of the season. If we beat UAB, then we should beat ECU at home. The next big challenge will be Cincy IMO. Beating Cincy is a must because it will hurt their bowl chances. The way things are looking, a 6-5 USF team may get invited if Cincy and TCU dont become bowl eligible.