Big East conference race mathematical breakdown

[GarySJ]

The below assumes that Cincinnati will beat Syracuse, and that all other remaining Big East games are a coinflip. It also accounts for most tiebreaker scenarios.

Cincinnati: 48.6%

Pittsburgh: 21.9%

West Virginia: 15.7%

3-way tie that will be decided by BCS poll ranking: 6.7%

Connecticut: 3.8%

Rutgers: 2.2% (yes, this can still happen. Rutgers can still even win the conference outright. And if they lose to Army they will be 6-6 Big East champions. Just one more reason the Bulls must win this weekend.)

A 5- or 6-way tie: 1%

Adds to 99.9% due to rounding.

And here is the probability of each team winning at least a share of the Big East conference championship:

Cincinnati: 63.4%

Pittsburgh: 41.5%

West Virginia: 38.4%

Rutgers: 13.9%

Connecticut: 8.8%

Louisville: 0.6%

South Florida: 0.4%

Adds to more than 100% because each scenario has more than one winner.

The "2008 Big East Champion South Florida Bulls!" (yes, we can rightly call ourselves that) scenarios are:

- USF wins all remaining games

- Louisville beats Cincinnati

- Louisville beats West Virginia

- Pittsburgh beats Cincinnati

- West Virginia beats Pittsburgh

- Connecticut beats Pittsburgh

- other remaining games don't matter

Such a result would be a 5- or 6-way tie with Cincy, Pitt, WVU, and one or two other teams, at 4-3 in conference.

I can work out bowl likelihoods if anyone wants to hear them.

[Ricky the Bull]

So, you're saying there's a chance.

-Jim Carey

[GarySJ]

So, you're saying there's a chance.

Yeah, that's pretty much how I feel too. But hey, we've hoped for longer shots. Remember 2002 when we needed seven games to go right on the final weekend to get that team a much-deserved bowl game, and got all of them except Cincinnati beating East Carolina?

What's more interesting are the scenarios that allow USF to escape having to play some gawdawful low-quality fourth-tier glorified-Sun-Belt bowl-contract-grubbing attendance-inflating 85th-ranked rat-puke one-NCAA-bid back-stabbing redneck inbred Conference USA team in a bowl game.

[BullDoug]

My wish is a 9-3 regular season finish and spot in the Gator bowl vs FSU with a 10th win over the Seminoles.  IMO the season can still be considered successful.

[USF-PMR]

My wish is a 9-3 regular season finish and spot in the Gator bowl vs FSU with a 10th win over the Seminoles.  IMO the season can still be considered successful.

If ND does not get the 6th win and we finish 2nd we will be locked into the Gaytor bowl versus ACC - most likely FSU or UM.

We can get er done.  I say 10-20% chance....

[Paul Wall]

wow such optimism haha Go bulls  beat down the S. Kights

[Jihme]

and none of this matters if we don't win.  oh sweet baby Jesus, please let us win!

[usfbulls2004]

just win baby!

[GarySJ]

Update to the above... here is the probability of each team winning the Big East BCS slot:

Cincinnati - 54.6%. If they can beat Pitt, all they have to do is beat Syracuse at home and they go to the Orange Bowl.

Pittsburgh - 17.2%. They still have to play Cincy, UConn, and West Virginia. They can go way up or way down.

West Virginia - 6.2%. They have to win all their games and hope Pittsburgh beats Cincinnati.

Connecticut - 0.8%. The only way they can get there is if Pitt and WVU both fall apart and UConn ends up tied with Cincinnati (whom they beat) at 5-2.

3-way tie decided by BCS poll - 11.7%.

4- or 5-way tie - 9.4%.

Fortunately for the Big East, there is no scenario where Rutgers can win the BCS bid (though they could be co-champs).

[RutgersScarletKnight]

Don't know what math you are using but Rutgers could still win the Big East outright(although its a very slim chance)

Cincy would have to lose to Pitt and Syracuse(thats the biggest thing about it.) Puts them at 4-3

WVU would have to lose to USF and Pitt which wold leave them at 4-3

Pitt would then have to lose to Uconn puts them at 5-2

RU would have to beat UL Puts us at 5-2

Rutgers under that Scenario would be 5-2 along with Pitt and Possibly Uconn and since we have the tiebreaker over those two teams we go to the BCS. However I dont see Cincy losing to Cuse, but its incorrect to say we are mathematically out of it.