Big East conference race mathematical breakdown

[CoolBull1]

At this point, I'll be happy if we can win one more game!

[snarling Bull]

At this point, I'll be happy if we can win one more game!

Ditto

[smazza]

this thread reinforces the embarassment and humiliation for usf

thanks

[smazza]

what are odds usf finishes dead last in BE conference?

[SilverBull]

what are odds usf finishes dead last in BE conference?

In the realm of thank God for small favors, not very likely,  Syracuse closes at Notre Dame and at Cincinnati after firing their coach and we hold the tie-breaker.

Hurray! We won't be last!

[TRCCBulls]

We could finish tied for last and still go to a Bowl game. Has that ever happened before? That would be an embarassment!

[GarySJ]

Don't know what math you are using but Rutgers could still win the Big East outright(although its a very slim chance)

As I said in the original post, I assume Cincinnati will beat Syracuse. All other games, I gave each team a 50-50 chance of winning. Then I run the tiebreakers.

Here's the "Rutgers as outright Big East champion" scenario. All games must fall exactly this way:

Louisville beats West Virginia

Pittsburgh beats Cincinnati

USF beats Connecticut

West Virginia beats Pittsburgh

Rutgers beats Louisville

USF beats West Virginia

Connecticut beats Pittsburgh

Syracuse beats Cincinnati

That leaves RU as the only 5-2 team in the Big East.

RU can also win a tiebreaker if:

Syracuse beats Cincinnati

Rutgers beats Louisville

Pittsburgh beats Cincinnati

Pitt loses to UConn or West Virginia, but not both

some other games may need to fall right

That would create a situation where Rutgers would be tied with Pitt at 5-2. Rutgers beat Pitt so they would go to the Orange Bowl. There are some other scenarios, but they're obscure. Tell ya what, I'll update this thread after next week's games. Or you can PM me and I'll send you my spreadsheet.

[GarySJ]

We could finish tied for last and still go to a Bowl game. Has that ever happened before?

I can't think of an example, but I bet it's happened. Especially if finishing tied for last in a division of a conference counts.

I can tell you that teams with 6 conference losses have gone to bowl games. Wisconsin in 2002 was 1-6 in the Big Ten, and won an automatic berth in the Alamo Bowl by beating Minnesota in the finale. That was one of the results that cost Marquel Blackwell and the 9-2 2002 USF team a bowl trip.

[GarySJ]

what are odds usf finishes dead last in BE conference?

Based on my original assumptions: Zero.

Sorry to disappoint you.

[GarySJ]

At 1-4 in the conference how could we have a mathmatical chance to win the conference?

We don't. The original post was made before the Rutgers game. Check the date.