USF will go to MCC Bowl

[Mama_Bull]

Let's take care of business first...then worry about which bowl we go to.  Charlotte was a great place to visit, even if the end result was a loss.  I don't see us going to Charlotte though.  Either we go to a BCS bowl or we wind up in St. Pete.  Ugh!!!

[af_bull05]

anything is better than sun bowl last year

The bowl itself was fine, we just sucked that day (which I'm sure is what you meant).

[mutt]

Rivals is Pure Crap.

[GoBulls84]

I would second going to Charlotte over St. Pete and Birmingham, HOWEVER...

I would much prefer a BCS game

[nobull.Bulls]

BCS or bust this year.

[crambone]

isn't it almost a forgone conclusion that short of winning the conference or getting an at large BCS bid, we are headed to the St. Pete Bowl to help make that first year a success for them?

Yes, that will probably be the case.  I was just continuing along the lines of the wishful thinking shown above.

[Guest nybullsfan]

St. Pete's an unlikely destination.

Order of selection is:

BCS

Gator

Meineke

Papajohn's

St. Pete

International

We take care of business on Dec 6 and go 10-2 or better, I think we're in Miami, either for NC (12-0) or Orange (10-2 or 11-1)

The Gator will take a 6-6 ND team over an 11-1 Big East team. Only way any of us gets there is if ND finishes 5-7 or worse

At 8-4 or better, Meineke or PJ would grab us. Based on the Sun Bowl, they gotta believe we'll travel well.

I just don't see us being a 7-5 or 6-6 team, which is what the SP and Int'l bowls will have to settle for

[LakeBull]

Meineke would be pretty good if ND is good enough to take the Gator Bowl spot.  They are pretty much saying we end up as the number two team in the Big East.  It would be great if we ended up there playing FSU.  Although a BCS game with the Gators would be ideal.

[Mag Pie]

St. Pete's an unlikely destination.

Order of selection is:

BCS

Gator

Meineke

Papajohn's

St. Pete

International

We take care of business on Dec 6 and go 10-2 or better, I think we're in Miami, either for NC (12-0) or Orange (10-2 or 11-1)

The Gator will take a 6-6 ND team over an 11-1 Big East team. Only way any of us gets there is if ND finishes 5-7 or worse

At 8-4 or better, Meineke or PJ would grab us. Based on the Sun Bowl, they gotta believe we'll travel well.

I just don't see us being a 7-5 or 6-6 team, which is what the SP and Int'l bowls will have to settle for

I'm pretty sure they can't do that.

[Guest]

St. Pete's an unlikely destination.

Order of selection is:

BCS

Gator

Meineke

Papajohn's

St. Pete

International

Actually you're a bit off... Papajohns.com, St. Pete, and International all pick at the same time... that is to say, they talk to each other and the conference to get the pick that makes sense for them - geographically and teams that they haven't seen in a while.

So, as I have analyzed before, let's look.

First, consider the Big East rule: If team B has two more conference losses than team A, then the bowl must select team A.  This two-loss rule is important, because a team that goes 4-3 in conference can be selected over a team that goes 5-2.

Second, if USF doesn't win the conference, then USF won't be 7-0.  Let's also assume that, for whatever reason, the Big East does not get a second team into the BCS.  That means we are at best 6-1, and the Gator Bowl - with the first selection after the BCS - could select a 5-2 Big East team ahead of USF. 

Ah, but the Gator Bowl could opt to take a Big 12 team again this year. If the Big 12 gets two BCS slots, then Gator gets the fourth Big 12 team (after BCS, Cotton, and Holiday).  If the Big 12 gets one BCS team, then the Gator could get the 2nd pick.

Oh wait, the Gator Bowl could take Notre Dame -- yes Mag Pie, even if Notre Dame is 6-6.  The biggest reason the Big East still has the Gator Bowl is because of Notre Dame.

Okay, so the Gator Bowl could take USF, another 5-2 or 6-1 Big East team, Notre Dame, or a Big 12 team.  I know we all think we would show up in great numbers in Jacksonville, but we have not proven that yet -- it's all hypothetical.  In reality, USF has only sent 5-6,000 to previous bowls.  Fewer than Big 12 schools and fewer than Notre Dame has sent in to non-BCS games in the past.  Also, I could see the Gator taking Pitt or WVU over USF if they are tied or one game back of the Bulls.

In reality, our chance of going to the Gator Bowl are slim.  If we're 11-1 and that good, then we'll probably get a BCS bid.  If not, then the Gator Bowl will take either Notre Dame or a Big 12 team.

So then we're looking at MCCB.  Now the last two Big East teams to play in Charlotte are U Conn and USF.  Which means if Pitt and/or WVU is 6-1 or 5-2 and not in the BCS, then I can see the Panthers playing in MCCB over USF.  Pitt or WVU would travel more fans, and they haven't played in Charlotte yet.

So you can see... Pitt or WVU wins the Big East, the other is tied with USF in conference or 1 game back... Then when USF is overlooked by the BCS, the Gator takes a pass, and so does MCCB...

Therefore, USF will be playing in St. Pete.

Here is how I put our chances for the season (not just at 6-1, but overall):

BCS / BCS National Championship (33%)

Gator (7%)

MCCB (20%)

St Petersburg (30%)

PapaJohns.com (10%)

International (0%)

We take care of business on Dec 6 and go 10-2 or better, I think we're in Miami, either for NC (12-0) or Orange (10-2 or 11-1)

The Gator will take a 6-6 ND team over an 11-1 Big East team. Only way any of us gets there is if ND finishes 5-7 or worse

At 8-4 or better, Meineke or PJ would grab us. Based on the Sun Bowl, they gotta believe we'll travel well.

I just don't see us being a 7-5 or 6-6 team, which is what the SP and Int'l bowls will have to settle for

Actually, quite the reverse. Meineke and PJ already know that we don't travel "well."  USF could not sell out it's tickets to their games.  These two bowl committees have seen how we travel -- and the Sun Bowl did not change those perceptions.