RU Vs. USF Stray Thoughts ... To Start (Long)

[jellyman]

Just wanted to start some preliminary discussion on the big game on Friday night.  I know RU fans are veru excited:  Road game, against a conference opponent, againsta  team thast beat us last season, and RU is ranked in the tiop 25 for the 1st time in 30 years.  I am sure USF fans are excited to be playing a nationally televised game, at home, against a conference foe that USF figures to have to beat if they want to rank ahead of this foe (both middle of the pack Big East teams).

As to the game, here are some stray thoughts:

1)  I never make predictiopns about RU (or other) games.  I have hopes, of course, but try not to have expectations (RU fans are like Charlie Brown kicking the ball while Lucy is holding it).  So I make no predictions about who I think will win.  I HOPE RU will win, and I thionk RU is CAPABLE of winning, but I truthfully have no idea what will happen.  I will talk up RU, however (I am an RU fan, after all).

2)  I think this game will be VERY different than last year's game, for several reasons.  First, I do not think RU will commit 6 turnovers again.  If RU had committed 3 turnovers, they probaly win last year's game pretty easily.  But RU did not take care of the ball, and USF took it to RU, earning a good win.  Second, each team's offensive philosphies and tendecies are very different versus last season.  USF had a star RB upon whom it relied on very heavily ... though USF's QB lit up RU's defense as well.  That RB graduated, and now USF relies almost entirely on its QB (passing and running).  RU?  Well, RU had arunning attack last season (had a 1000-yard rusher and a 750 yard rusher), but was FIRST a passing team, especially at the time RU played USF.  This season, RU is primarily a rushing team (more on that later).

Unstray Thoughts:

Reasons an RU Fan Hopes for a WIN:

1)  RU's Defense.  While it is true that USF will likely be the best offensive team RU faces (believe it or not, I think it may be true), still, RU's defense has been a revelation this seaso, so far.  While USF's QB worries me (as RU has hstorically had troubles with mobile and running QB's), all 4 teams that RU has faced this season have boasted mobile and running QB's.  RU fared worst against UNC's QB, showing very poor tackling, poor discipline (missed assignemnts and not keeping "contain" on the QB), and allowing some big gains.  But in the next 3 games, RU has just smothered its opponents.  And I do not mean that RU did well ... I mean the RU defense has been completely dominating.  Okay, the opposition has not been the most intimidating, but even so ... RU held Illinois and Ohio each to less than 125 yards in TOTAL offense (and Illinois never crossed the 50-yard line) ... Howard did have 170 yards in offense, but 72 of those yards came on the last drive of the game against RU's 3rd string defense ... RU has allowed a total of maybe 3 3rd down conversions in the last 3 ames (out of 35-40 attempts).   RU's front 7 is small, and that remains a worry.  But the front 7 has proved to be very, very quick ... and when it has played disciplined assigment defense, has completely obliterated the opposing offenses.

2)  RU's offense is efficient.  Last year, RU could put a lot of points on the board, and had a number of big plays.  This season, RU has very few big plays.  I think RU has only 3 plays from scrimmage of over 30 yards all year, and maybe only 10 plays of over 20 yards.  The offense is designed to provide the QB several options for each play, depending on his read of the defense.  Despite the inexperience of the QB (100 pasees thown in his career coming into this season, and still a sophomore), few teams have actually stacked the box with 8 or 9 players, so RU has been able to run quite effectively.  It is treu that until Howard, RU's All American quality FB (and Leonard is the consensus best FB in the country) has not been a major impact, but because teams have focused so much of their defense on Leonard, the "other" RB has gone wild (Ray Rice has averaged 151 yards per game, on 5.7 yards per carry, and has scored 11 TD's so far this year ... on pace for 1800 yards rushing and 30+ TD's).  Also, the offense has worked very well to take advantage of the new clock rules ... by running so well, RU has won the possession time battle in each game, and kept the defense off the field, and shortened the game.    In addition to shortening the game, it has helped RU's field position greatly.  As 1 peice of evidence of efficiency, RU has converted 48% of its 3rd down conversions.  Yet, though RU has not shown it, the RU offense also has some terrific playmakers, and potentially BIG play players.  Leonard and Harris (one of the best 3-4 TE's in the country) are veterans who could break a long play on any snap.  Rice does not have the speed to make huge plays, but has just about the fastest burst through the hole you will ever see, and routinely breaks off 12-20 yard runs.  And RU's WR's are very, very fast ... much faster than last season.  The question is:  Can Teel, the QB, get the playmakers the ball effectively?

3)  Special teams:  Significant parts of RU's special teams have been spectacular this season.  RU's punt coverage has been weak, and RU's terrific FG kicker missed 1 short FG, and an extra point.  Also, RU has not yet broken an decent kick-off runs, nor shown any consistency in punt returns (but that in part has been due to some of the worst punting from opponents you have ever seen, cutting down on rrturn chances).  Still, RU's special teams have been spectacular.  The FG kicker is very good, with a strong leg.  RU's kick-off specialust (also the FG kicker) has been excellent this saeason (50%of his kicks have been touchbacks).  But, while those are very good, it is the other areas that have been just great.  RU's punter, who has been maddeningly inconsistent in his career (he is a senior), has been absolutely terrific this season.  He has averaged 47.5 yards perpunt this season, with 6 of his 16 punts inside the 20 yard line.  His net is just 37 yards per punt (which is actually pretty good) ... but that is distorted by just 1 single 60-yard return (4 broken tackles) ... without that return, his net would be 41 yards per punt.  RU's kickoff return coerage has been excellent also.  But RU's kick and punt BLOCKING has been great.  RU has blocked a FG, and has blocked 2 punts, and got in on 1 punt attempt so fast the punter wass tackled before he could punt.  RU's punt block efforts have been so intimidating that 2 of RU's opponents have been completely rattled (3 teams changed its punter mid-game, one using a WR to rugby kick to punt), and has drawn 5 illegal procedure penalties on punt attempts.   The special teams has created 4 or 5 turnovers this season.  In addition to the turnovers, the special teams have created an ENORMOUS field position advantage for RU.

4)  Turnovers:  RU has been a much better turnover team thsi season so far.  RU has created 13 turnovers so far (6 fumble recoveries and 7 intercpetions), and in fact already has more interceptions after 4 games than they did all last season, in 12 games.  RU has committed 9 turnovers, but is winning the turnover battle.

5)  Mental Attitude:  RU, while still losing points due to untimely turnovers, has displayed a MUCH superior mental toughness and killer instinct that in prior years (last season in particular).  RU is very physical, both offensively and dfeensively, and also very business-like.

6)  Offensive Line:  RU's offenisve line is very big, and yet quite athletic.  And they have experience (2 seniors and 3 juniors ... 3 fulltime starters from last season and 1 part-time starter from last season).  The OL has only given up 4 sacks, and has generally done an exceptional job blocking for the rushing game.

Reasons an RU Fan Worrie About and Loss to USF:

1)  USF ... USF may be the best team RU has played so far.  In fact, USF is almost certainly the best team RU has faced this season.  So ... though RU has dominated most of its competition to date, USF is a level above those teams.  And in college football, though scores are not transitive, still, one fact is that speed kills, and compounds oppoennts' mistakes.  RU has been materially quicker and faster than any of its 1st 4 opponents.  USF is much faster across the board than any of RU's 1st 4 opponents.  Thsi worries me.

2)  RU's QB is turnover pronce, and has not been great.  While Teel has MANAGED the offense quite well, making many of the correct play choices, he has not completed a high enough percentage of his passes to win against really good teams.  He was just outstanding against UNC (70% completions, impeccable play calling and no interceptions).  He also had an excellent 1st half against Illinois, when RU went up 30-0.  But he had a poor 2nd half against Illinois, and by everyone's admission (including his own), he was simply awful against Ohio (he was 10-24 with 4 interceptions).  He did do better against Howard (osh, we should hope so, eh?) ... he was 9-16 for 133 yards (but he paassed better than he showed, as he had 3 dropped passes).  We RU fans do not yet know if Teel can actualy WIN a game for RU when it is on his shoulders.  We know he can manage a game and not LOSE a game.  But to WIN a game?  The jury is still out.

3)  Leaving points on the board.  RU's offense, despoute being generally more efficient than last season, is still leaving too many points on the board with untimely turnovers.  Of Teel's 5 interceptions, 2 have been in the endzone after good drives, and another was inside the opponents' 20 yard line.  Of RU's 4 loat fumbles, 1 was at the goal line on a careless reach holding the ball with 1 hand, and at least 1 other was at the opponents' 30-yard line (returned for a TD).

4)  RU lost to USF last season.  Need I say more?  Well, yes ... last year RU lost at home, while this season RU plays on the road.

Anyway, I hope you'all enjoy this post, and we look forward to the game on Friday night.

[windbane]

Nice post.  I am very curious how the USF offense will do against the Rutgers D.  I am very worried that we'll struggle to stop the running attack of RU.  Backup RB of UCF got 100 yards on us.  As for your QB struggling...Kansas had their backup that started last year in due to an injury and he managed to pick us apart, so I'm worried about any QB at this point.  Basically, as you can tell, I'm worried about USF's defense now.  I do not expect us to be as terrible as last week on 3rd downs if RU runs primarily.  Kansas had graet RBs as well and they were left with many 3rd and longs that they passed for, so hopefully if USF can force those they can actually stop RUs QB from converting so many.  Then our QB can show his stuff with craetive play-calling.  Lots of hopes...

[E.T.]

Thanx for stopping by and taking the time to drop your thought.

Hope the nation sees an entertaining game, and a USF upset for a ranked team.  8-)

Go BULLS !!!

[The Sheriff]

We will pound Rutgers back to the stone ages... The stage has been set... our defense is pissed from KU... Teel will be having Green and Gold nightmares comes Saturday morning. This is a huge trap game for RU... everyone will be whistling for RU on the East coast up until game time...

Can you say deer in headlights?

Ray Rice... meet Stephen Nicholas. There's a reason why these players play at RU and not at a Florida school. Our players need to dig deep and remind them that come Friday evening.

And the billboard... Leavitt will be screaming about that billboard in practice all week... mark my word. We will be fired up and will take care of business. It just sucks this game is on a Friday night when all the high school teams are playing.

Nice post RU fan...

Your's is filled with facts of the preceding weeks. Mine is just one bold testament to the ensuing asskicking we're about to deliver. Good luck the following week. We have not regressed enough since last season to lose to RU at home after beating them at their field. And FWIW... we did enough to win last year... just like KU did just enough to win last week. It's called the breaks of the game.

[___ Eats It]

Rutgers drinks pee.

Ruck Futgers.

[Guest Bullitt]

Ruck Futgers.

[USFan]

You guys kill me  ;D

Jellyman, thanks for the post.  Good luck on Friday.

[jellyman]

bump - for discussion, or would USF fans just want to talk smack?

[dabull80]

much better at smack

[windbane]

heh...guess we're done analyzing our team