Article from Gator game where fourth and one decision(s) are discussed ...

[Rocky Style]

Nein 

[Sk00b]

4 hours ago, Bull94 said:

here is a simplified explanation.

go for it on your own 5 yard line. 50% success rate. if you fail they have a 92% chance to score.

that's .92 x .50 x 7 = that's 3.22 points per possession.

punt from own 5 yard line. gain 35 yards on average in field position decreases their chance to score to 77%.

that's .77 x 1.00 (100% chance they get the ball) x 7 = 5.39 points per possession.

the math says it's better to go for it.

The Country's Most Radical Football Coach Explains Why You Should Never Punt

WWW.BUSINESSINSIDER.COM

 

Business insider huh... I'm still not buying it. 

[CousinRicky]

48 minutes ago, Sk00b said:

Business insider huh... I'm still not buying it. 

The headline says "most radical football coach". Good enough for me.

[OhioBull]

This is very interesting. Really makes you think. I’m an engineer and math doesn’t lie. 

[CousinRicky]

4 minutes ago, OhioBull said:

This is very interesting. Really makes you think. I’m an engineer and math doesn’t lie. 

You made me go and open the article. Stopped reading when I read high school coach. If he was some genius coach he'd be coaching at Stanford. 

[Bull94]

8 hours ago, CousinRicky said:

You made me go and open the article. Stopped reading when I read high school coach. If he was some genius coach he'd be coaching at Stanford. 

perhaps you should have read further. from the article

Kelley's math is backed up by other like-minded football progressives, including Cal professor David Romer — who did a study that found that teams, generally, shouldn't punt.

[Bull94]

9 hours ago, Sk00b said:

Business insider huh... I'm still not buying it. 

perhaps sports illustrated then....maybe Forbes....the new yorker......

yeah that voodoo math. who believes in that stuff anyway.

 

si.com

WWW.SI.COM

Go For It: Innovation Advice From The Football Coach Who Never Punts

WWW.FORBES.COM

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Football coach Kevin Kelly has been recognized by USA Today, Time, and more for his innovative style that relies on data analytics and defies conventional wisdom. Coach...

The Case Against Punting | The New Yorker

WWW.NEWYORKER.COM

[CousinRicky]

1 hour ago, Bull94 said:

perhaps you should have read further. from the article

Kelley's math is backed up by other like-minded football progressives, including Cal professor David Romer — who did a study that found that teams, generally, shouldn't punt.

Well, looks like we've hired a coach that believes in all that.

[Bull94]

56 minutes ago, CousinRicky said:

Well, looks like we've hired a coach that believes in all that.

Math? yes that's a good thing.

we lead the country in 4th down conversions.

here is a basic chart that shows when he might decide to go for it. don't be surprised when people come on here and criticize a decision to go for it if it's unsuccessful. Doesn't mean it wasn't the right call according to the math.

[OhioBull]

This really shouldn't be an emotional issue and I think that is the way CAG approaches it.  The math is either on your side or it isn't.  The one caveat is that a coach needs to take into account the efficiency of the offense.  Are they good in short yardage and have the horses up front?  Do we have the plays in the passing game to keep it efficient?  Is the QB strong enough to help push the pile when under center?  The math says that in most cases a team should go but not in all cases.  I am sure CAG has his opinion about where we are in all of this.  I personally hate to punt any time it is less than 1.5 yards to go.  If you can't snap to a QB under center and push him 1.5 yards there are issues.  Offensive lineman thrive in these cases...including ours.