Conference realignment "Rumors" "tweets" "etc"

[Triple B]

No Uranus jokes, please. 

 

Considered the Mars/Venus book analogy but some are depressed enough already ...

[usfgrad84]

 

 

 

UM may have been the last "little guy" but it was back in 83.

But back in 83, even the "big guys" were little guys. The infusion of BILLIONS in TV money has changed that and the divide between haves and have nots is too wide.

 

No, it really doesn't.  Those on top don't stay there, ever.

 

 

That is absolutely correct. Those at the top do change ... in their respective worlds. The point they're making is that the P5 and G5 will be on 2 separate planets starting 2014, for the most part.

 

 

Nope.  

 

How do you think it is not going to be a different world?  The entire process and set-up for the BCS landscape will be changing. 

 

To play at a highly competitive level, the "BCS" or what will become the "P5" level, you will need top talent, top coaching, top facilities. 

 

The first step will be to be able to keep top coaching staffs.  When the P5 begin to realize their windfall of cash, the salaries of head coaches and perhaps more importantly the assistant salary pools will begin to escalate.  The P5 programs are going to be earning close to $20 million just from their media revenues.  Throw in the crazy amounts being thrown around from the new bowl contracts, etc then compare that to the mere pittance of about $2 million dollars a year for the American conference. 

 

Next throw in the bowl situation.  P5 conference have pretty much locked in the top tier, 2nd tier and most of even the third tier bowls.  The G5 are left with meaningless bowls (in the national scope of things) with the exception of the one slot left for the 70 or so rest of the teams. 

 

Another important aspect, and I think most people are overlooking this aspect, is that when we get to 2014 and the new system starts, Strength of schedule will become one of the most important factors of the college rankings.  More than it ever has.  Since a lot of the conferences have increased their number of teams, there will be less out of conference scheduling openings down the road.  Since the strength of schedule will become more important i expect that the P5 schools will look to schedule other P5 schools for out of conference games.

 

Now, mix in the media coverage.  We can't even get a freaking blog on ESPN. 

 

This all leads us to the talent available to recruit.  One thing learned from our jump from CUSA to BE is that the best players want the opportunity to: play for a great coach, have the opportunity to play for a national championship (no matter how realistic that chance is), play in good bowls and play on national TV.  When you are locked out of that (and to be clear, I am saying G5 teams will now be locked out. Before there was still a chance, after 2014, by design, G5 teams are locked out of all that). 

 

I am not sure how any program not part of the P5 will be able to keep a good coaching staff together for any period of time and recruit enough top tier players to be able compete with the P5 programs.  You will always be able to land a few players here and there and bring home transferees, but it will be tougher than ever before to go from looking in to getting in.

 

Prior to this new deal going in to effect, if there was a way that a coaching staff could find a way to put it all together, (TCU, Utah, Boise, NIU even USF to some degree) there was a reward at the end of the tunnel. 

 

I don't see how any program will be able to stay at a higit.h enough level over the course of enough seasons to make a big enough mark to break through.  There will always be a season or two of flash in the pan programs, but sustained success.  i don't see it.

[BaltoBull]

 

 

 

 

UM may have been the last "little guy" but it was back in 83.

But back in 83, even the "big guys" were little guys. The infusion of BILLIONS in TV money has changed that and the divide between haves and have nots is too wide.

 

No, it really doesn't.  Those on top don't stay there, ever.

 

 

That is absolutely correct. Those at the top do change ... in their respective worlds. The point they're making is that the P5 and G5 will be on 2 separate planets starting 2014, for the most part.

 

 

Nope.  

 

How do you think it is not going to be a different world?  The entire process and set-up for the BCS landscape will be changing. 

 

To play at a highly competitive level, the "BCS" or what will become the "P5" level, you will need top talent, top coaching, top facilities. 

 

The first step will be to be able to keep top coaching staffs.  When the P5 begin to realize their windfall of cash, the salaries of head coaches and perhaps more importantly the assistant salary pools will begin to escalate.  The P5 programs are going to be earning close to $20 million just from their media revenues.  Throw in the crazy amounts being thrown around from the new bowl contracts, etc then compare that to the mere pittance of about $2 million dollars a year for the American conference. 

 

Next throw in the bowl situation.  P5 conference have pretty much locked in the top tier, 2nd tier and most of even the third tier bowls.  The G5 are left with meaningless bowls (in the national scope of things) with the exception of the one slot left for the 70 or so rest of the teams. 

 

Another important aspect, and I think most people are overlooking this aspect, is that when we get to 2014 and the new system starts, Strength of schedule will become one of the most important factors of the college rankings.  More than it ever has.  Since a lot of the conferences have increased their number of teams, there will be less out of conference scheduling openings down the road.  Since the strength of schedule will become more important i expect that the P5 schools will look to schedule other P5 schools for out of conference games.

 

Now, mix in the media coverage.  We can't even get a freaking blog on ESPN. 

 

This all leads us to the talent available to recruit.  One thing learned from our jump from CUSA to BE is that the best players want the opportunity to: play for a great coach, have the opportunity to play for a national championship (no matter how realistic that chance is), play in good bowls and play on national TV.  When you are locked out of that (and to be clear, I am saying G5 teams will now be locked out. Before there was still a chance, after 2014, by design, G5 teams are locked out of all that). 

 

I am not sure how any program not part of the P5 will be able to keep a good coaching staff together for any period of time and recruit enough top tier players to be able compete with the P5 programs.  You will always be able to land a few players here and there and bring home transferees, but it will be tougher than ever before to go from looking in to getting in.

 

Prior to this new deal going in to effect, if there was a way that a coaching staff could find a way to put it all together, (TCU, Utah, Boise, NIU even USF to some degree) there was a reward at the end of the tunnel. 

 

I don't see how any program will be able to stay at a higit.h enough level over the course of enough seasons to make a big enough mark to break through.  There will always be a season or two of flash in the pan programs, but sustained success.  i don't see it.

 

I agree.

[Sellular1]

UM may have been the last "little guy" but it was back in 83.

But back in 83, even the "big guys" were little guys. The infusion of BILLIONS in TV money has changed that and the divide between haves and have nots is too wide.

 

No, it really doesn't.  Those on top don't stay there, ever.

 

That is absolutely correct. Those at the top do change ... in their respective worlds. The point they're making is that the P5 and G5 will be on 2 separate planets starting 2014, for the most part.

 

Nope.

How do you think it is not going to be a different world?  The entire process and set-up for the BCS landscape will be changing. 

 

To play at a highly competitive level, the "BCS" or what will become the "P5" level, you will need top talent, top coaching, top facilities. 

 

The first step will be to be able to keep top coaching staffs.  When the P5 begin to realize their windfall of cash, the salaries of head coaches and perhaps more importantly the assistant salary pools will begin to escalate.  The P5 programs are going to be earning close to $20 million just from their media revenues.  Throw in the crazy amounts being thrown around from the new bowl contracts, etc then compare that to the mere pittance of about $2 million dollars a year for the American conference. 

 

Next throw in the bowl situation.  P5 conference have pretty much locked in the top tier, 2nd tier and most of even the third tier bowls.  The G5 are left with meaningless bowls (in the national scope of things) with the exception of the one slot left for the 70 or so rest of the teams. 

 

Another important aspect, and I think most people are overlooking this aspect, is that when we get to 2014 and the new system starts, Strength of schedule will become one of the most important factors of the college rankings.  More than it ever has.  Since a lot of the conferences have increased their number of teams, there will be less out of conference scheduling openings down the road.  Since the strength of schedule will become more important i expect that the P5 schools will look to schedule other P5 schools for out of conference games.

 

Now, mix in the media coverage.  We can't even get a freaking blog on ESPN. 

 

This all leads us to the talent available to recruit.  One thing learned from our jump from CUSA to BE is that the best players want the opportunity to: play for a great coach, have the opportunity to play for a national championship (no matter how realistic that chance is), play in good bowls and play on national TV.  When you are locked out of that (and to be clear, I am saying G5 teams will now be locked out. Before there was still a chance, after 2014, by design, G5 teams are locked out of all that). 

 

I am not sure how any program not part of the P5 will be able to keep a good coaching staff together for any period of time and recruit enough top tier players to be able compete with the P5 programs.  You will always be able to land a few players here and there and bring home transferees, but it will be tougher than ever before to go from looking in to getting in.

 

Prior to this new deal going in to effect, if there was a way that a coaching staff could find a way to put it all together, (TCU, Utah, Boise, NIU even USF to some degree) there was a reward at the end of the tunnel. 

 

I don't see how any program will be able to stay at a higit.h enough level over the course of enough seasons to make a big enough mark to break through.  There will always be a season or two of flash in the pan programs, but sustained success.  i don't see it.

Great post and anybody who doesn't agree doesn't understand the business of football

[Bull Martin]

Programs like Alabama are already getting close to paying top assistants $1 million annually.  Eventually the Nick Saban's of the world are going to be getting paid like NFL coaches ($8+ million).  Top assistants might be in the $1-3 million range (more than every non P-5 head coach).  I'd imagine even the smaller assistants are going to be making a lot more money.

 

That's going to be the real harm.  When a guy like Taggart can make more as the RB coach at Stanford than the HC at USF it's over.  It's not that far off IMO. 

[BDYZR]

Might as well just give up and shut it all down now, save the money.

[Sellular1]

Might as well just give up and shut it all down now, save the money.

It's almost 50% harder to win games if we don't have a team.

[BDYZR]

 

Might as well just give up and shut it all down now, save the money.

It's almost 50% harder to win games if we don't have a team.

 

I know, we tried that with Skippy...I think it was closer to 85%

[usfgrad84]

Might as well just give up and shut it all down now, save the money.

No one is suggesting giving up on the team, but this is what smazza and a few others are talking about when referring to becoming a "minor league" program.

[Skingraft]

I'm 50% sure that 46% of 12% of the population will agree that 100% of 33% is better than 5% of the original 50% of games won or loss

Edited July 7, 2013 by Skingraft