Conference realignment "Rumors" "tweets" "etc"

[macphisto]

Thing to remember is that expansion allows for more programming.  Two more teams will add eight more conference games per season and another eight out of conference - so 16 more games that could be televised.  That's a lot of additional revenue to any network.  Then there's the conference title game in addition to that, a game that will generate even more revenue.

 

Fox likely would get additional programming as part of the deal, expanding their second tier package.  ESPN probably wouldn't see much change because their first tier package has a set number of games, but Fox would probably compensate the Big XII.  Actually, I would not be surprised if Fox would push the Big XII over $20M a year per school with expansion and the conference championship.

 

From the Big XII's perspective, they may be able to get a little bit more money, but also a conference championship seems to help more in getting a slot in the new system to play for a title.  I don't think they want to be the only one of the big conferences to not have a title game.

 

For Fox, if they lock up a Big XII Title game then they leave ESPN with only the ACC title game every year and the PAC-12 in odd years.  Fox would have the Big XII and B1G.  CBS the SEC.  And ESPN the ACC with the PAC-12 every other year and Fox getting the PAC-12 in even calendar years.

 

Notice that ESPN is not doing so well nailing down the title games.  This is reason enough for Fox to push some buttons and expand their contract.

[Triple B]

 

As much as i'd like to see it happen, it's hard for me to imagine the Big 12 taking us and UCF. We would split their pie significantly and do not move the needle much in terms of media or TV visibility for them.

 

At most, this is a ploy to try and get FSU and Clemson to jump ship. But i doubt it is even that, more likely unsupported rumor.

 

The rumor is totally supported.  The question is whether we are truly a viable option or whether we are being played to get FSU and Miami to commit (the much more likely scenario).  DeLoss Dodds at Texas likes to use the media to push things in the direction he wants to see them go.  TuxedoYoda is one of his mouthpieces.  Nothing comes out of that program that he doesn't want to get spread across the internet within minutes.  No doubt that Dodds sent the word out.  His desired end goal is still in question.

 

"The rumor is totally supported" .... I like that.

 

I LOL'd ...

[bullsbucsfan426]

Adding USF and UCF to Big 12 makes perfect sense.  The two schools are in two of the fastest growing metro regions in America.  The schools have huge enrollments and fast growing alumni numbers.  Florida will be 3rd most populated state in a few years passing N.Y. and behind only Ca. and TX.  The Big 12 and TV operators want to make money  They are not interested in what schools did yesterday (FSU & Clemson)--they want schools in the conference that will contribute the most tomorrow and the next few decades.  USF and UCF fit the bill and would be a terrific fit for Big 12.  

 

Because FSU and Clemson weren't just in BCS bowls the last two years....They aren't teams of yesterday, they're back to being good, as 09/29/2012 will attest. 

[zarnozdabull]

http://tuxedoyoda.blogspot.com/2013/03/fox-sports-is-straw-that-stirs.html

 

The pictures of the USF girls in that article are my really good friends and they are creeped out that this picture of them taken from Facebook is on some random blog.

 

Don't rely on this source it was incredibly creepy finding this out.

 

If anyone knows the author let him know.

Edited March 5, 2013 by zarnozdabull

[jvwvu]

Jwvvu will be around to remind us that he said a few weeks ago we would hear this rumor.  He also said it would just be a ploy to get FSU and Miami to commit, but that it would open the door to the ACC.  What I've read last night and this morning in this regard is that there is a (small) chance that this does happen.  The Big 12 privately really does expect to go to 12 teams.  They don't really care about a conference championship game, but it looks like it would put them at a disadvantage for the new NC system if they don't have one.  So they will take the bitter pill.  If FSU and Miami decide not to go, the Florida market could be very appealing to Fox and their new cable network.  The thinking is that Texas/Florida matchups would play well in the FL market even if it is USF/UCF instead of FSU and Miami.  Also, they figure that USF and UCF would be able to parlay the money and exposure to rapid improvement in this recruiting rich state if they could sell the Big 12 conference.

 

Dont you if you appreciate my info or think I am an ass but well here it goes.

 

I concur there is a small chance USF/UCF to Big 12 happens, 10-15%.

 

1.  Fox wants Florida and prefers 2 Fla teams (FSU and Miami).  Will they pony up the money to get the current 10 teams $26 mil a year for Tier 1&2 plus the Conf championship game, and get USF/UCF the money if they cant get them? 

2.  Will 8 of the 10 teams vote in USF/UCF, WVU will but will others? (This alot depends on divisions, Issue 1 - Oklahoma and Texas will not be in separate divisions as the want the RRR and dont want to face each other in a conference championship. Issue 2 - Baylor and Texas Tech does not want to give up yearly games with big brother and now neither does TCU but at least one of them will have to, and the other schools want 2 Texas teams on their part 3 That pretty much makes the conferences WVU, USF, UCF, Iowa St, TCU and Baylor.  I am not sure that Iowa St, TCU and Baylor want that division

3.  I still think if the ACC is not cracked (no one leaves or GOR is signed) by June 2013, for 2014 season (New BCS), I think its the Big 12 that blows up and 8 teams need to find homes to blow up that league.  (Texas independent with #16 with ND in ACC due to Longhorn Network/ESPN Tier 3 contract)  B1G would go to 16 with Kansas and Missou, SEC would need 3 and go with WVU, OU and either OSU/Kst with 4 pods of 4 and Tech, Baylor, OSU/Kst, and TCU to PAC 12, which only leaves out Iowa St which would join New Big East ------ This is the death sentence for USF, IMO

 

Chance of 1 team more likely USF joining Miami in Big 12 if FSU goes to B1G (20) - 25%

 

B1G takes - ND, FSU, BC, UVA, UNC, GT, DUKE

SEC takes - VT, NCst

Big 12 takes - Miami, USF, UL, Clemson at 14, possibly 2 more either BYU & Boise ST or Pitt & Cuse

 

 

WVU wants eastern partners and would love a home/away with 2 Fl and 2 Texas teams a year, but will the divisions allow it?

 

Our issue is not football travel but is the time zone travel in basketball with the later games on Fox/ESPN that is supposedly going to be worked out next year so we could travel on a Friday for a Sat away game (say Texas), stay that night, travel Sunday (to Texas Tech) and play on Monday night, and fly back that night and get back early Tues morning (4am).  Right now for a Wed/Sat away game we leave Tuesday play Wed get back Thurs (4am) go to class then leave Friday for Sat game and get back Sun (AM)

 

The things to watch right now are the Maryland lawsuit, and the fact that the C7 (Big East) leave next year and get MSG and are courted ND to play with them next year in all sports but FB.  And they want ND to stay there after that, increasing their contract money.  And supposedly ACC is so scared of this they are offering ND for just the football 5 games package to keep their ACC bowl tie ins.

[Reliable Source]

http://tuxedoyoda.blogspot.com/2013/03/fox-sports-is-straw-that-stirs.html

 

The pictures of the USF girls in that article are my really good friends and they are creeped out that this picture of them taken from Facebook is on some random blog.

 

Don't rely on this source it was incredibly creepy finding this out.

 

If anyone knows the author let him know.

So girls are "creeped out" that something they posted on the internet is now in the public domain? Wow. Get a clue girls, if you don't want it out there, don't post it. Maybe they need to spend a lil more time watching Public Service Announcements and not who's wearing what to Chipotle tonite.

[jvwvu]

Also of notes:

 

WVU/TCU shares are 50%, 67%,80%, 100% for the first 4 years

WVU got gifted and loaned money for the buyout for BE

The $20 mil right now is only for Tier 1 & 2 not including championship game

Right now the BCS payout and the SEC/Big12 Game (Sugar Bowl?) is not part of that $20 mil and adds about $9mil for each of the 10 teams (more mouths less per team)

The other bowl money is shared along with help with ticket sales and cost of going unlike Big East

Tier 3 TV stays with teams along with the radio and marketing.  WVU is going from $5 mil to $9 mil a year on just this being in Big 12

 

Remember SEC/B1G have different types of TV packages then PAC/Big 12 - its about big time teams playing each other (not just top Tier 1 game(s)) and national viewership (PAC/Big12) versus just mass population in areas of schools paying for the channel to have right to watch game

[Reliable Source]

I don't believe any of the the USF/UCF rumors. Like WVU to ACC, these rumors were started by desperate UCF fans and have been around forever. More likely in my book is that USF and UM might make the jump. Better TV markets. Sanctions will have little long term impact for UM. FSU is prolly settled now. UM and now USF can afford buyouts and the combo would own the TV market and recruiting for a lot of FL This would crack the ACC/SEC stranglehold on FL. Bowlsby would look pretty smart.

[Skingraft]

I like the um USF jump....

I'll put in a call....

Does anyone have that number?

[macphisto]

I don't believe any of the the USF/UCF rumors. Like WVU to ACC, these rumors were started by desperate UCF fans and have been around forever. More likely in my book is that USF and UM might make the jump. Better TV markets. Sanctions will have little long term impact for UM. FSU is prolly settled now. UM and now USF can afford buyouts and the combo would own the TV market and recruiting for a lot of FL This would crack the ACC/SEC stranglehold on FL. Bowlsby would look pretty smart.

I think if FSU is unlikely to pay $50M, so is Miami.  Unfortunately, I don't see how USF would be any more appealing to the Big XII than USF.  Together they actually do make an attractive package.

 

Clearly the Big XII's #1 target for expansion would be FSU.  But FSU leaving the ACC has major implications for the conference that I'm not sure FSU wants to take on their shoulders.  There's also the big buyout which will end up being determined by the lawsuit against Maryland.

 

I'm not too sure that any ACC team is willing to leave at this point.  It's a question of if the Big XII wishes to expand and how quickly.  If they don't want to wait out the court case, they likely have to target other teams.  No team in the PAC-12, B1G, or SEC is going to bail.  If the ACC teams are scared of a buyout then they won't leave.  That leaves MWC and BE (or whatever its called) teams. 

 

So will they expand west?  Boise State is a good team, but has a limited footprint although has drawn well nationally.  But outside of Boise, the candidates out west are weak unless they can get BYU on board.  They've tried that.

 

Florida is the most logical option.  Fertile recruiting ground and growing population, soon to pass New York as the third most populous state.  USF is in the midst of a recruiting hotbed loaded with talent and UCF isn't far away from talent either.  FSU is the established name, so they make the most sense - national title winners, history.  Miami would make a lot of sense, but their program hasn't been all that strong and the NCAA is watching them like hawks.  I'm not too sure Miami would be considered.

 

Does the Big XII want a title game in 2014?  If so, options are limited.  And, unlike FSU, they could gradually give USF and UCF more money.  With FSU, they would have to give them the full payout during the first year. 

 

The Big XII isn't necessarily fully safe.  Nor is the ACC.  SEC, B1G, and PAC-12 are going nowhere, but outside of those three there are no guarantees.

 

As for FSU to B1G - never gonna happen.  The academics aren't strong enough.  I think the B1G will take two more if they can.  The big problem is the Carolina schools are reluctant to leave.  And I think that big exit fee hangs over all their heads.  Maryland and FSU may have an out because they didn't vote for it.  Everyone else did. 

 

USF and UCF going Big XII - it really depends if Texas supports it.  Oklahoma, Tech, OKST, and Baylor will go along with the Longhorns.  I do agree with jvwvu that WVU would vote for us.  I also think TCU would go with Texas as well.  That's 7/10 if you can win over Texas.  It would come down to money.  If they can't get FSU and adding Florida would give them a title game and extra money ($1-2M per year) then I think it gets done.

 

But nothing is going to happen until late April/May.  They won't do anything until after the Tournament.