Bowl Analysis

[Jim Johnson]

First, I agree that its premature to talk about USF and a bowl game... but I think a quick analysis can show us how the 56 slots could break down.

USF needs to focus on Rutgers this weekend -- a tough challenge to be sure since USF has lost 4 straight games on the road.

This post is a broad look at all I-A conferences and bowl slots.

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ACC: 6 Slots

Eligible: Va Tech, FSU, Miami, Boston College

1 Win & In: Georiga Tech

2 Wins & In: Wake, MD, UVa, Clemson

3 Wins & In: NC State, UNC

Out: Duke

1 Loss & Out: Wake

Big 12: 8 Slots

Eligible: Texas, Texas Tech, Colorado

1 Win & In: Mizzou, Okla, Texas A&M, Iowa St, Neb

2 Wins & In: Kansas, Kansas St, Baylor

3 Wins & In: Okla State

Out:

1 Loss & Out: Okla State

Big East: 4 Slots

Eligible: WVU, Rutgers

1 Win & In: Louisville

2 Wins & In: Pitt, U Conn, Cincy

3 Wins & In: USF

Out: Syracuse

1 Loss & Out:

Big 10: 7 Slots

Eligible: Penn St, Wiscon, Ohio St, Mich

1 Win & In: NWestern, Iowa, Minn, Mich St

2 Wins & In: Indiana

3 Wins & In:

Out: Illinois, Purdue

1 Loss & Out:

Pac 10: 6 Slots

Eligible: USC, UCLA, Oregon, Cal

1 Win & In:

2 Wins & In: Stanford, AZ State, Oregon State

3 Wins & In:

Out: Arizona, Washington

1 Loss & Out: Washington State

SEC: 8 Slots

Eligible: Bama, UGa, Florida, Auburn, LSU

1 Win & In: South Car

2 Wins & In: Vandy

3 Wins & In: Tenn, Ole Miss

Out: Miss St

1 Loss & Out: Ole Miss, Ark, Kentucky

C-USA: 5 Slots

Eligible: UTEP

1 Win & In: UCF, Tulsa

2 Wins & In: USM, Memphis, Marshall, Houston

3 Wins & In: ECU & UAB

Out: SMU, Rice

1 Loss & Out: Tulane, ECU

Mtn West: 3 Slots

Eligible: TCU

1 Win & In: Colo St, New Mex

2 Wins & In: BYU, Utah, Wyo

3 Wins & In:

Out: San Diego St, UNLV, Air Force

1 Loss & Out:

Mid-Amer: 2 Slots

Eligible: Toledo

1 Win & In: Miami, Cent Mich, West Mich

2 Wins & In: No Ill, Ohio, Akron, Bowling Green

3 Wins & In: East Mich

Out: Ball St, Kent St, Buffalo

1 Loss & Out: East Mich

WAC: 2 Slots

Eligible: Fresno St, Boise St

1 Win & In:

2 Wins & In: La Tech, Nevada

3 Wins & In: Hawaii

Out: Idaho, San Jose St, New Mex St

1 Loss & Out: Hawaii, Utah St

Sun Belt: 1 Slot

Eligible:

1 Win & In:

2 Wins & In: Ark St

3 Wins & In: La Mon, La Laf, Troy

Out: FAU

1 Loss & Out: FIU, La Laf, Troy, No Texas

Indy: 4 At-Large Slots*

Eligible:

1 Win & In: Notre Dame

2 Wins & In: Navy

3 Wins & In:

Out: Army, Temple

1 Loss & Out:

*At Large Slots: Two in BCS, Poinsettia Bowl, Liberty Bowl

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Projected (by me) number of open slots:

ACC = 0

Big 12 = 0

Big East = 0

Big 10 = 0

Pac 10 = 1

SEC = 1 (maybe 2)

MWC = 0

MAC = 0

WAC = ALL FILLED

SB = NO EXTRA SLOTS (CONF. CHAMP GETS THEIR ONE SLOT)

AT LARGE = 2 (maybe 3)

Looks like there will be 4-6 available slots ... it is impossible right now to know how may extra eligible teams there will be.

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One last interesting point to note.  The BCS at-large slots are hard to predict. One will probably go Notre Dame... but between now and the end of the season you have:

USC vs UCLA, Va Tech vs Miami, VT/UM vs FSU, Bama vs LSU, Bama/LSU vs Georgia/Florida, Penn State vs Wisconsin...

The next 5 weeks will have a lot to watch.

[bulls96go]

just win jim!

[BullDoug]

IMO, Ohio State and Penn State will share an auto bid and an at large bid.  Big12 will only receive an auto.  ACC will probably receive the other at large BCS bid.

[WoolyBully]

3 Wins and In:

Sat 11/05 . . . . at Rutgers

Sat 11/12. . . . .at Syracuse

Sat 11/19. . . .  Cincinnati

Sat 11/26. . . . at Connecticut

Sat 12/03. . . . West Virginia

S'pose...just s'pose...you were asked which three of the above you expect USF to win. What would you say? Strictly gray matter...not green and gold...

[Cubanbull]

Syracuse,Cincy and UConn

[Guest]

3 Wins and In:

Sat 11/05 . . . . at Rutgers

Sat 11/12. . . . .at Syracuse

Sat 11/19. . . .  Cincinnati

Sat 11/26. . . . at Connecticut

Sat 12/03. . . . West Virginia

S'pose...just s'pose...you were asked which three of the above you expect USF to win. What would you say? Strictly gray matter...not green and gold...

I agree with Cubanbull...

Rutgers -- If this game were at home, I think USF would be able to win the game.  However, a Bulls team that has lost 4-straight on the road, having not played a game in 20 days - it could be a challenge.  Rutgers, however, could be in for a let-down because of the emotion of winning Homecoming and getting their sixth win for what could be their first bowl game since 1978.  I can't expect USF to win, but it is within the realm of possibility.

Syracuse -- So much for S. Bien's pre-season prediction that the Dome is a hard place to play.  A 1-7 Orange team is having trouble drawing fans.  Yes, it will be their homecoming and USF is bad on the road. But after watching their games against both WVU and Cincinnati this season, I don't see how Syracuse will win. I expect USF to win by a touchdown.

Cincinnati -- The Bearcats looked awful against Syracuse, getting a win on a fumble return.  Yes, USF can make turnovers... but it's Senior Day for the Bulls, and they will be looking to make a statement in a home game.  USF has also won three-straight at home.  I think we all expect USF  to win this game by double digits.

Connecticut -- Thanksgiving in Hartford.  U Conn plays @ WVU and @ Pitt before we come to town for their only home game in November.  If U Conn beats Pitt, then this game will be for a bowl for them.  The Huskies will be tough, but their 4-3 record is decieving - they haven't played many strong teams.  U Conn will likely finish the season 4-7.  I expect USF to win a close game, perhaps in overtime.

West Virginia -- The delayed homecoming game played one week after the Backyard Brawl for the Mountaineers.  If this game were played in Morgantown, I would not think USF could win... but being at home for the last time this season, the Bulls will play stronger.  Like the Rutgers game, I can't expect USF to win, but it is possible for USF to win -- more so if USF is 5-5 going in to the game.

So, I think USF will be 5-6 at worst or 8-3 at best.

[dabull80]

8-3 at best.

"at best"  LOL  Just struck me funny.  Yes that would be the best cause it couldn't get any better.