Gimme a list

[8u11`o3]

...of mid majors projected to win their conference tourney that would still receive an at large bid if they did not win their conference tourney.

[bcgruber]

st. MArys

Gonzaga

Creighton

Witchita st

Temple

murray st

Long Beach St

Harvard

Iona

and maybe middle Tenn st

those are the ones that come to mind

[gobulls83]

It's not just teams who would receive at-large bids if they don't win their conference tournaments, but such teams from leagues with no other tourney-worthy teams. For instance, Atlantic 10 leader Temple would get an at-large bid if they lost in the tournament, but second-place St. Louis has a great shot at an at-large bid as well so as long as it's one of those two the league will get the same number of bids. Here are the leagues that I think will be one-bid leagues as long as the favorite wins the conference tournament, with the favorite to win in parentheses:

America East (Stony Brook)

Atlantic Sun (Belmont)

Big Sky (Montana)

Big South (UNC-Asheville)

Big West (Long Beach State)*

Colonial Athletic Association (Drexel)**

Great West (Utah Valley)

Horizon (Valparaiso)

MAAC (Iona)*

Mid-American (Akron)

MEAC (Savannah State)

Northeast (LIU Brooklyn)

Ohio Valley (Murray State)*

Patriot League (Bucknell)

Southern (Davidson)

Southland (Texas-Arlington)

SWAC (Mississippi Valley State)

Summit League (Oral Roberts)*

Sun Belt (Middle Tennessee)*

Teams with an asterisk are teams I think have a shot as at-large bids if they lose. Here are those teams' RPI and projected end-of-season strength of schedule numbers, all gotten from here:

Long Beach State: RPI 36, SOS 113

Iona: RPI 44, SOS 162

Murray State: RPI 31, SOS 190

Oral Roberts: RPI 43, SOS 203

Middle Tennessee State: RPI 47, SOS 193

** - The CAA is tough to call as a one- or two-bid conference right now. Drexel (25-5; RPI 63, SOS 254) and VCU (25-6; RPI 61, SOS 199) are both in the hunt, but probably on the outside looking in right now as far as at-large bids go. If they both get to the conference tourney final, there's a chance the loser could get an at-large bid, but I personally think it is unlikely. ESPN's bubble watch has them both with work left to do to get in.

So there are six leagues where we need to be hoping for the top seeds to win the conference tournaments. Additionally, the Ivy League sends its regular season champ to the dance and doesn't hold a tournament. Harvard (RPI 38, SOS 184) is currently in first and has a great chance as an at-large, so that's a seventh league worth paying attention to.

[gobulls83]

st. MArys

Gonzaga

These two are in the same league, and both are locks right now, so as long as one of the two wins the West Coast Conference tourney it won't make a difference.

Creighton

Witchita st

Again, same league.

Harvard

There is no Ivy League tournament. The Ivy League sends its regular season champ to the tournament. If Harvard wins its last game and Penn loses one of its last two, Harvard wins the league. If it ends in a tie, there is a one-game playoff. We need to hope Harvard wins the league, because with an RPI of 38 they have a great shot of getting an at-large bid.

[gobulls83]

Because I am bored, here are the leagues that I think are looking like two-bid leagues, with the two teams in parentheses. If a team other than one of these two wins these leagues' conference tourneys, it will likely take away another at-large spot:

Atlantic 10 (Temple: RPI 11, SOS 55; St. Louis: RPI 29, SOS 101)

Conference USA (Memphis: RPI 18, SOS 25; Southern Miss: RPI 16, SOS 62)

Missouri Valley (Wichita State: RPI 12, SOS 65; Creighton: RPI 25, SOS 110)

Mountain West (New Mexico: RPI 33, SOS 106; San Diego State: RPI 26, SOS 67)

[gobulls83]

It's not just teams who would receive at-large bids if they don't win their conference tournaments, but such teams from leagues with no other tourney-worthy teams. For instance, Atlantic 10 leader Temple would get an at-large bid if they lost in the tournament, but second-place St. Louis has a great shot at an at-large bid as well so as long as it's one of those two the league will get the same number of bids. Here are the leagues that I think will be one-bid leagues as long as the favorite wins the conference tournament, with the favorite to win in parentheses:

America East (Stony Brook)

Atlantic Sun (Belmont)

Big Sky (Montana)

Big South (UNC-Asheville)

Big West (Long Beach State)*

Colonial Athletic Association (Drexel)**

Great West (Utah Valley)

Horizon (Valparaiso)

MAAC (Iona)*

Mid-American (Akron)

MEAC (Savannah State)

Northeast (LIU Brooklyn)

Ohio Valley (Murray State)*

Patriot League (Bucknell)

Southern (Davidson)

Southland (Texas-Arlington)

SWAC (Mississippi Valley State)

Summit League (Oral Roberts)*

Sun Belt (Middle Tennessee)*

Teams with an asterisk are teams I think have a shot as at-large bids if they lose. Here are those teams' RPI and projected end-of-season strength of schedule numbers, all gotten from here:

Long Beach State: RPI 36, SOS 113

Iona: RPI 44, SOS 162

Murray State: RPI 31, SOS 190

Oral Roberts: RPI 43, SOS 203

Middle Tennessee State: RPI 47, SOS 193

** - The CAA is tough to call as a one- or two-bid conference right now. Drexel (25-5; RPI 63, SOS 254) and VCU (25-6; RPI 61, SOS 199) are both in the hunt, but probably on the outside looking in right now as far as at-large bids go. If they both get to the conference tourney final, there's a chance the loser could get an at-large bid, but I personally think it is unlikely. ESPN's bubble watch has them both with work left to do to get in.

So there are six leagues where we need to be hoping for the top seeds to win the conference tournaments. Additionally, the Ivy League sends its regular season champ to the dance and doesn't hold a tournament. Harvard (RPI 38, SOS 184) is currently in first and has a great chance as an at-large, so that's a seventh league worth paying attention to.

After reviewing the standings, you can add the WAC to this list. Nevada (RPI 47, SOS 152) is in contention for an at-large bid. So that is eight one-bid conferences (including the Ivy League) where a cinderella taking the automatic bid could eat up an at-large spot, plus four more two-bid leagues where two upsets would be necessary. That's 12 mid-major leagues worth watching.

[outrunner]

Just a heads up, FGCU has made it to the Atlantic Sun Finals versus Belmont. We NEED Belmont to win or that's one less spot open. I swear FGCU is starting to be a pain in our side.

That said, JUST WIN

[gobulls83]

Just a heads up, FGCU has made it to the Atlantic Sun Finals versus Belmont. We NEED Belmont to win or that's one less spot open. I swear FGCU is starting to be a pain in our side.

That said, JUST WIN

Belmont has an RPI of 63 and a SOS higher than 200. And they have no impressive wins. I don't think they are very likely to get an at-large spot. ESPN's bubble watch doesn't even list them as a team "with work left to do" to get an at-large spot. It is probably the case that the only Atlantic Sun team in the tournament will be the winner of the conference tournament, whether it's Belmont or Florida Gulf Coast.

[8u11`o3]

It's not just teams who would receive at-large bids if they don't win their conference tournaments, but such teams from leagues with no other tourney-worthy teams. For instance, Atlantic 10 leader Temple would get an at-large bid if they lost in the tournament, but second-place St. Louis has a great shot at an at-large bid as well so as long as it's one of those two the league will get the same number of bids. Here are the leagues that I think will be one-bid leagues as long as the favorite wins the conference tournament, with the favorite to win in parentheses:

America East (Stony Brook)

Atlantic Sun (Belmont)

Big Sky (Montana)

Big South (UNC-Asheville)

Big West (Long Beach State)*

Colonial Athletic Association (Drexel)**

Great West (Utah Valley)

Horizon (Valparaiso)

MAAC (Iona)*

Mid-American (Akron)

MEAC (Savannah State)

Northeast (LIU Brooklyn)

Ohio Valley (Murray State)*

Patriot League (Bucknell)

Southern (Davidson)

Southland (Texas-Arlington)

SWAC (Mississippi Valley State)

Summit League (Oral Roberts)*

Sun Belt (Middle Tennessee)*

Teams with an asterisk are teams I think have a shot as at-large bids if they lose. Here are those teams' RPI and projected end-of-season strength of schedule numbers, all gotten from here:

Long Beach State: RPI 36, SOS 113

Iona: RPI 44, SOS 162

Murray State: RPI 31, SOS 190

Oral Roberts: RPI 43, SOS 203

Middle Tennessee State: RPI 47, SOS 193

** - The CAA is tough to call as a one- or two-bid conference right now. Drexel (25-5; RPI 63, SOS 254) and VCU (25-6; RPI 61, SOS 199) are both in the hunt, but probably on the outside looking in right now as far as at-large bids go. If they both get to the conference tourney final, there's a chance the loser could get an at-large bid, but I personally think it is unlikely. ESPN's bubble watch has them both with work left to do to get in.

So there are six leagues where we need to be hoping for the top seeds to win the conference tournaments. Additionally, the Ivy League sends its regular season champ to the dance and doesn't hold a tournament. Harvard (RPI 38, SOS 184) is currently in first and has a great chance as an at-large, so that's a seventh league worth paying attention to.

Exactly what I was looking for...thanks '83!!

[gobulls83]

Because I am bored, here are the leagues that I think are looking like two-bid leagues, with the two teams in parentheses. If a team other than one of these two wins these leagues' conference tourneys, it will likely take away another at-large spot:

Atlantic 10 (Temple: RPI 11, SOS 55; St. Louis: RPI 29, SOS 101)

Conference USA (Memphis: RPI 18, SOS 25; Southern Miss: RPI 16, SOS 62)

Missouri Valley (Wichita State: RPI 12, SOS 65; Creighton: RPI 25, SOS 110)

Mountain West (New Mexico: RPI 33, SOS 106; San Diego State: RPI 26, SOS 67)

Actually the Mountain West will have at least three bids, and probably four. UNLV (RPI 17, SOS 49) and Colorado State (RPI 20, SOS 5) both are likely dancing.

So to recap, teams we want to see win their league's auto bid to avoid eating up an at-large bid:

Long Beach State in the Big West Conference

Iona in the MAAC

Murray State in the Ohio Valley Conference (final is at 2 pm today vs Tennessee State)

Oral Roberts in the Summit League

Middle Tennessee State in the Sun Belt

Nevada in the WAC

Harvard in the Ivy League (regular season only)

And leagues where we want to see one of two teams win the auto bid are:

Drexel or VCU in the Colonial Athletic Association

Temple or St. Louis in the Atlantic 10

Memphis or Southern Miss in Conference USA

Wichita State or Creighton in the Missouri Valley Conference