BCS Bowl Scenario

[Doc]

Not mathematically over yet, but highly improbable.  For USF to represent the Big East in a BCS Bowl this year, here is what we need:

USF: beat RU, UL, UCONN: 5-2.

UC: lose to UCONN, WVU, PITT: 4-3.

PITT: beat UC, lose to SU, WVU: 5-2.

WVU: beat UC, PITT, lose to either UL or RU but beat the other: 5-2.

Three-way tie between USF, PITT, WVU, where each team is 1-1 goes to highest BCS standing, probably us if PITT loses those games (plus Notre Dame) and we beat Miami (FL).  The same holds true if UC beats PITT although they may be tougher to catch in the BCS standings tie-breaker.

In any case, should either UC or PITT win this week, it's officially out of reach.

[ncentonze]

Those stars are not gonna align this year... 

[Jewbull]

Not mathematically over yet, but highly improbable.  For USF to represent the Big East in a BCS Bowl this year, here is what we need:

USF: beat RU, UL, UCONN: 5-2.

UC: lose to UCONN, WVU, PITT: 4-3.

PITT: beat UC, lose to SU, WVU: 5-2.

WVU: beat UC, PITT, lose to either UL or RU but beat the other: 5-2.

Three-way tie between USF, PITT, WVU, where each team is 1-1 goes to highest BCS standing, probably us if PITT loses those games (plus Notre Dame) and we beat Miami (FL).  The same holds true if UC beats PITT although they may be tougher to catch in the BCS standings tie-breaker.

In any case, should either UC or PITT win this week, it's officially out of reach.

Are you using the same cards that you do for conference tournament seeding?

[Doc]

Yes, still have those cards -- takes all of a couple of minutes to figure out these scenarios.

Probably not going to happen, but our women's BBall team pulled off an even less probable set of event to qualify for the Big East tourney in 2008 then sneak into to WNIT to keep the post-season streak intact.

[305BULLNPHINS]

Is there still even a slight chance that if Cincy ends up in the National Title game and Pitt somehow loses some games down the road and we win out that we get a BCS bid?

[Guest]

Is there still even a slight chance that if Cincy ends up in the National Title game and Pitt somehow loses some games down the road and we win out that we get a BCS bid?

Not really.  The ten BCS bids will go to:

AUTOMATIC

1) Florida/Alabama winner

2) Texas

3) ACC winner

4) Big Ten winner (Iowa/Ohio State)

5) Pat Ten winner

6) Cincy (Big East winner)

7) TCU or Boise (Automatic bid because of Top 8)

AT LARGE OPTIONS

8) Florida/Alabama loser

9) Pac Ten runner Up (USC)

10) Notre Dame (if they get to Top 12 - probably takes winning out)

11) Big Ten runner Up (Ohio State)

12) TCU/Boise

13) ACC runner Up (Virginia Tech)

14) Big East runner up

USF would have to go from #25 to #12 or higher ... which really means a lot of teams losing...

[bullsbucsboltsrays]

Not mathematically over yet, but highly improbable.

Seems like the mantra of USF Football every year..

[macphisto]

Is there still even a slight chance that if Cincy ends up in the National Title game and Pitt somehow loses some games down the road and we win out that we get a BCS bid?

Yes, but it depends on who loses in front of us and how our schedule strength plays out.  If USF finishes in the top 14 of the final BCS poll then we are eligible to get selected and the Orange Bowl gets the first shot at picking an at-large team.  Looks like they'll have Georgia Tech in all likelihood or a weak team from the other division.  USF being in state and showing a good draw to FSU would play in our favor, even if Cincy isn't in the BCS title game.  If Cincy is an automatic bid one of the other bowls would have to take them (probably Sugar Bowl), but the Orange is under no obligation to take anyone other than the ACC winner and they don't have to take the BE winner or a MWC team either.  If Boise or TCU auto qualifies then the Fiesta would take them and the Sugar would take the Cincy auto qualifier.

This year gives us the best chance because it is the Orange picking first, but we need to get in the top 14.  Winning out might do that for us.

[DELdaBull]

No BCS for us this year. Maybe next.

[macphisto]

Not really.  The ten BCS bids will go to:

AUTOMATIC

1) Florida/Alabama winner

2) Texas

3) ACC winner

4) Big Ten winner (Iowa/Ohio State)

5) Pat Ten winner

6) Cincy (Big East winner)

7) TCU or Boise (Automatic bid because of Top 8)

AT LARGE OPTIONS

8) Florida/Alabama loser

9) Pac Ten runner Up (USC)

10) Notre Dame (if they get to Top 12 - probably takes winning out)

11) Big Ten runner Up (Ohio State)

12) TCU/Boise

13) ACC runner Up (Virginia Tech)

14) Big East runner up

USF would have to go from #25 to #12 or higher ... which really means a lot of teams losing...

The only scenario of both Boise and TCU getting in is if the Fiesta takes both.  That's possible and they'll likely get the #2 pick if Texas goes to the NCG, but they'd be most likely to pick USC as a replacement.  Sugar would get first pick if a SEC team goes to the NCG and they'd take the SEC runner up.  And I wouldn't rule out USC losing again this year, knocking them out.  Same for Notre Dame.

So let's just say:

NCG:  

Florida versus Texas.

Sugar Bowl takes Alabama to replace Florida.

Rose Bowl is set with Big Ten and Oregon.

Fiesta takes USC to replace Texas.

Now the Orange Bowl is up.  They already have Georgia Tech.  No one in the Big 12 other than Texas qualifies.  Likely no one else in the ACC qualifies if we ended up beating Miami.  Big Ten - maybe either Penn State or Ohio State qualifies, so you might consider them.  Though what if Iowa ends up tumbling to a lesser team (notice how close they were for a while to Indiana and they have Minnesota, Northwestern, and Ohio State coming).  So what if Penn State beats Ohio State and then OSU beats Iowa with Iowa also losing one other game?  That's not as improbable as it may sound because I think Iowa's luck will run out at some point.  So that could make only one eligible Big Ten team - the champion.  TCU or Boise State?  That's a long way to travel for a mid major without a large fan base - either is best in the Fiesta.  Notre Dame?  If they're eligible, but if Pitt beats them then that is unlikely.  

Cincinnati?  If they win the Big East they are guaranteed a slot and you had them last year.  Pitt?  Possible, especially if Dan Marino has any ability to lobby the selection committee.  But if USF is in the top 14 too you might take them in a weak economy because they have a cheaper and shorter trip and might spend more cash because of it.  And as BCS first timers the fans might be willing to splurge even more.

If there's a year where two Big East teams go it will be this one.  The mid major love has hurt the major conferences and the SEC love has also hurt the other conferences.  

So the Fiesta chooses after the Orange and takes Boise St or TCU, whoever qualifies.  Then the Sugar takes the Cincy/Pitt winner.

And if Cincy goes to the NCG then it might become more likely.  

Even if it's not us, I wouldn't be surprised if it's Pitt if they can win out through their last game.  They won't pay a heavy penalty if they lose to Cincy in a hard fought game, especially if Cincy would go to the NCG because of it.  They'd still be eligible.

That could put us in the Gator Bowl, but we need Notre Dame to take a dive to end their season - and that may be doable.  Navy's not a push over, nor is Pitt.  UConn is hard to tell and I expect Standford to be pumped up in Palo Alto.  Losing two games is possible and would make it hard for the Gator to validate taking ND over a 10-2 BE team, especially if USF gets a BCS nod and Pitt beat ND in head to head.  The great hope would be that ND completely tanks and loses all four games, dropping to 6-6 and unable to even get invited to the Gator do to NCAA rules.