USF@CINCY, biggest game in our history??

[Bullpride08]

I think both Pitt & Memphis are playing BETTER than USF. As much fun as last evening was, remember - after all - it was ECU.  Fortunately for us it was a conference win, unfortunately Memphis got-it-goin'-on & Pitt ...well... they are Pitt.

Uhhh, UAB has beaten Cinci, AND MEMPHIS.  UAB is in second place in C-USA.  IF they win out, and they probably will, they'll be 9-3, and to me, hanging 45pts on UAB was impressive.

Memphis got it going on?  They can score, no doubt, but their defense is equally as porous.  Outside of Carlton Baker they've got no playmakers on defense.

If UAB can beat both Cinci, and Memphis we are just as capable.

[bulldad]

I have to agree that the Cincy game is the biggest.  If we win that one then the memphis game will be the biggest.  If we are 1 and 1 then the Pitt game is the biggest.  

We are in the H.S. playoffs right now and each game is the biggest because if we lose its our last.

The Bulls must win at Cincy end of story!

[Bullpride08]

If we beat Cincinnati and Memphis, we'll get a bowl.  There would be a good chance we'll be third or fourth in the conference.

If we beat Cinci, AND Memphis USF will be about a 90% shoe-in for a bowl.  Ironically we need help from our boys in Red- UL, and possibly USM.  

Today, three teams, outside of USF, have a shot at contending for a bowl game:

TCU- if you can believe it is hanging on a thread at 4-5, but they conclude the season with home games against Tulane, and USM.   You must expect they'll beat Tulane, but USM is fighting for dignity, and frankly we need USM to beat TCU.   This would completely knock TCU out of bowl contention.

Tulane- again if you can believe it are 4-5, however they've got two final games at TCU, and Louisville.  I don't see them beating either, much less both.

USM- as odd as this sounds USM is not playing good football right now.  They stand at 5-3 however they finish the season at TCU, UAB, and California.  They could lose those three, but to me the winner of the TCU v. USM game is pivotal.  If USM wins it automatically knocks out TCU (my preference), but if TCU wins then USM is going to have a tough time beating UAB, or Cali.

Cinci- 5-4 but their last two games are USF, and UL.  No one's beating UL this year, they're too powerful for the non-BCS ranks, too  many weapons, stout defense.  That makes the Cinci game pivotal for USF, and Cinci.  

Those are the teams on the bubble.  Considering the bubble USF's access to a bowl game is simple.  There are two paths to a bowl game for USF, the fast, and slow approach.

First, the fast approach, USF must beat both Cinci, and Memphis.  USM must beat TCU this weekend, effectively eliminating them, then TCU beat Tulane the following week (very probable when you consider Tulanes four victories are against Army, Navy, FAMU, and the odd UAB win).  Then UL has to beat Cinci on the day of our Memphis game.  That happens, and on Sunday the 28th of November USF should be accepting either a New Orleans, or Hawaii bowl bid as the 3rd team in C-USA behind UAB, and UL.   The only way to do it because if all of the above occur C-USA will only have five eligible teams- UL, UAB, USF, Memphis, and USM.  Five bids for five slots- UL to Liberty (maybe BCS), UAB to Mobile and my guess is we'd get Hawaii- New Orleans wouldn't want the risk of us playing on Dec. 4th and coming to play 10 days later.  The conference already splits travel costs and ticket sales for the Hawaii Bowl.

The long version could be very convoluted.  USM gets beat by TCU, Tulane beats TCU.  Could drag this out until December 5th before a decision would be made.  Thus almost certainly rendering us to Hawaii.

The key in this all is USF must beat Cinci and Memphis.  Beat them both, and we're about 90% certain to go bowling.

[Jim Johnson]

Bien - Excellent analysis...

I agree that if USF wins two games, and the USM-TCU, and UC-UofL games go as expected, then USF is 5-3 and in fourth place in C-USA.

Your analysis boils down to:

First, the fast approach... on Sunday the 28th of November USF should be accepting either a New Orleans, or Hawaii bowl bid as the 3rd team in C-USA behind UAB, and UL.  

The long version ... rendering us to Hawaii.

Also, you can figure this even longer version - we lose to Cincy, but beat Memphis and Pitt... That would give C-USA 6 bowl games...  Sending USF into the pool of at-large teams... with a possible date in Orlando! (Assuming the Big 12 can get 7 eligible teams - see my other thread "Updated Division I-A Bowl Analysis")

But, as some on here are prone to say, it's one game at a time.  Go Bulls! Beat Cincy!

[Apis Bull]

Fortunately, as fans, we can look ahead and speculate all we want.   ;D

[Guest HowieP1]

Bien - Excellent analysis...

I agree that if USF wins two games, and the USM-TCU, and UC-UofL games go as expected, then USF is 6-2 and tied with UAB and USM for second place in C-USA.  It is possible that the GMAC bowl could invite USF to Mobile.

Your analyis boils down to:

But, as some on here are prone to say, it's one game at a time.

Thanks for changing one of our Conference losses to a win. That works for me.  ;D

[Jim Johnson]

Thanks for changing one of our Conference losses to a win. That works for me.  ;D

DOH!  I forgot the Army game... something I think we all want to forget.  Let me go fix that post.

[Cubanbull]

Well if USM loses to TCU, it will make the Frogs bowl eligible if they beat Tulane. But USM would still have to win one out of UAB and Cal. Not guaranteed wins. So USM really needs the TCU win just as bad.

[bullman3]

We must win the uc and um games to get a bowl.  There are too many cusa teams above us, and going 4-4 will not get us in.  We must go 5-3 in the conference.   The Pitt game is less of a factor then winning the two conference games.

[Bull Matrix]

I think the big X factor for USF beating Cincy is that the marketing department can promote the Memphis vs USF game better. A win against Cincy will really get the bowl talk out and will draw more fans IMO. A loss to Cincy then the air is almost out of the bag, so less fans will attend.