Vegas opening line: USF 13 point favorite

[Compute-a-bull]

Pitt is insanely better than NCSU. What a joke that line is. If our team thinks Pitt is only as good as NCSU we'll get destroyed.

We should win this game, but Pitt's one of the tougher big east teams.

[Bulls On Parade]

The big east is down but conference play is a different animal, teams know each other better.

[Costa]

Pitt is going to come play us tough. Hope our boys are ready.

[Ricky the Bull]

Apparently the money says that 13 was too low.  USF now -14.

[windbane]

Pitt is insanely better than NCSU. What a joke that line is. If our team thinks Pitt is only as good as NCSU we'll get destroyed.

We should win this game, but Pitt's one of the tougher big east teams.

have you watched Pitt this year?  They could be 6th in the Big East right now, unless WVU is below them.

They lost to Bowling Green, barely beat Iowa who lost to Northwestern, and trailed Syracuse in the 3rd quarter by 11 points.

All we have to do is shut down their running attack, and so far we are 4th in the nation in rushing defense (8th in total defense).

[Compute-a-bull]

have you watched Pitt this year?  They could be 6th in the Big East right now, unless WVU is below them.

They lost to Bowling Green, barely beat Iowa who lost to Northwestern, and trailed Syracuse in the 3rd quarter by 11 points.

All we have to do is shut down their running attack, and so far we are 4th in the nation in rushing defense (8th in total defense).

Actually, I have watched them. All of their games if I'm not mistaken. Have you watched them?

Bowling Green is not a terrible team. Certainly on the UCF/FIU type level.

Iowa has lost to Pitt and Northwestern as you mentioned. However, Northwestern is 5-0 and is looking to have a decent year.

Does it matter that they trailed to Syracuse? We only beat FIU by a TD with a 2pt conversion attached. And, we trailed Kansas in the 3rd qtr by 11 points.

I'm not saying we shouldn't win. My remark that Pitt is insanely better than NCSU was mostly a jab at NCSU, not a build up of Pitt.

Our run defense was pretty dang good last year too, until we faced a power back like Rice who exposed us. Pitt has some great running, and their secondary is not bad.

Also, they have a good pash rush and a good linebacker corps in particular. For how great our defense is, they're only allowing 60 yds/game more than we are; and they have the best defense statistically we've faced all year. Furthermore, they rank #7 in the country in sacks.

There's a reason they were predicted, probably wrongly, as a dark horse to win the conference. They have just as much talent as anyone in the conference, if not more. We'll win because they're poorly coached, but we won't win if we sleep walk into the game expecting NCSU.

[windbane]

have you watched Pitt this year?  They could be 6th in the Big East right now, unless WVU is below them.

They lost to Bowling Green, barely beat Iowa who lost to Northwestern, and trailed Syracuse in the 3rd quarter by 11 points.

All we have to do is shut down their running attack, and so far we are 4th in the nation in rushing defense (8th in total defense).

Actually, I have watched them. All of their games if I'm not mistaken. Have you watched them?

Bowling Green is not a terrible team. Certainly on the UCF/FIU type level.

Iowa has lost to Pitt and Northwestern as you mentioned. However, Northwestern is 5-0 and is looking to have a decent year.

Does it matter that they trailed to Syracuse? We only beat FIU by a TD with a 2pt conversion attached. And, we trailed Kansas in the 3rd qtr by 11 points.

I'm not saying we shouldn't win. My remark that Pitt is insanely better than NCSU was mostly a jab at NCSU, not a build up of Pitt.

Our run defense was pretty dang good last year too, until we faced a power back like Rice who exposed us. Pitt has some great running, and their secondary is not bad.

Also, they have a good pash rush and a good linebacker corps in particular. For how great our defense is, they're only allowing 60 yds/game more than we are; and they have the best defense statistically we've faced all year. Furthermore, they rank #7 in the country in sacks.

There's a reason they were predicted, probably wrongly, as a dark horse to win the conference. They have just as much talent as anyone in the conference, if not more. We'll win because they're poorly coached, but we won't win if we sleep walk into the game expecting NCSU.

yes, I have watched them, and they are far too conservative and lack a good QB. 

Northwestern's best win so far is Duke.  Yes, it matters that they were behind to Syracuse by 11 points deep in the 3rd quarter.  Are you serious in comparing that game to FIU?  We dominated FIU and the game was never in question.  And even more ridiculous is the comparison to Kansas!  They are a top 20 team.

Ah, stats.  Here we go: 

Rushing Offense 60th, and that was supposed to be a strength of their team.

Passing Offense 75th

Total Offense 72nd

Scoring Offense 75th

Rushing Defense 40th

Pass Efficiency Defense 62nd

Total Defense 32nd  (Kansas is 35th after getting lit up by us)

Scoring Defense 53rd

Net Punting 17th (oh snap!...but is it because they never punt inside the 20?)

Punt Returns 92nd

Kickoff Returns 74th

Turnover Margin 98th

Pass Defense 42nd (hey, we are only 37th, so there's a stat they are close on).

Passing Efficiency 98th

Sacks 7th (noticeably one of only 2 stats you used and ignored all the others)

Tackles For Loss 43rd

Sacks Allowed 78th

[Compute-a-bull]

The point about them being down to Syracuse had to do with the fact that just because they were down doesn't mean they didn't end up winning the game pretty well. The comparison drawn to Kansas was certainly not that Syracuse is anywhere near KU, just that during the 3rd qtr we weren't winning either, but managed to win the game. Thus, your point that they were losing to Syracuse by 11 in the 3rd is pretty moot, especially considering they ended up winning by 11. That's a 22 point turnaround in a half of football. Good job regardless of the opponent.

And, FYI, I never said Pitt's stats were great as you seem to have concluded. But, do me a favor, go back and do what has caused this debate: compare those numbers side by side to NCSU. You'll see Pitt > NCSU.

Listen, I'm not hyping up Pitt, but you're making them sound as bad as NCSU which they're just not. NCSU is a very bad team, and the team we played is even worse than their bad stats reflect given they had more injuries and one of the worst turnover prone QBs at the helm.

EDIT: I decided to compare the NCSU/Pitt stats head to head. Conclusion? Pitt was better than NCSU in 14 categories. NCSU was better in 4. I think it clearly shows that one team is superior to the other. Which, was of course my argument.

[windbane]

yeah, but those nc state stats are after playing us, just like Kansas only has a worse defense than Pitt because kansas already played us.  You said Pitt was far better than NC State, and I'm not sure I believe that.  I agree that they are better, I just think they aren't very good.  You said there were some legit reasons for them being picked as a darkhorse in the conference, but I'm seeing no evidence of that so far.

But hey, if we let them stay in the game they can win.  There's no chance they can come back on us, I would think.  Nothing is guaranteed when USF plays, though.

[Mama_Bull]

I also remember after NCSt upset ECU, that many of the ESPN talking heads were making THEM the current favorite to win the ACC. Considering how bad that conference is, that STILL might happen.  ;D

What vegas says doesn't mean much unless you plan on making a wager.

Clearly, USF is at least a TD favorite at home.

I'll take ANY "W" and be happy to move on to the next game.