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Official Sun Bowl Opponents Thread | Oregon?

BJ

By BJ
in USF South Florida Bulls Athletics

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bullsfan555 Collaborator

bullsfan555

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Posted

Last I heard, our opponents for the Sun Bowl have come down to either Cal or Oregon. Who would you rather see the Bulls play?

Personally, I'd like to see us do battle with the Ducks. They were ranked pretty high until just a few weeks ago, and I'd like to see our defense try to stop their high-scoring offense, presuming Dixon is healthy.

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GarySJ Toro Magnifico

GarySJ

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Posted

OK, here's the table I used.

There are 16 possible permutations of: Oregon-Oregon State game, USC-UCLA game, Arizona-Arizona State game, and the Pac-10 getting two teams into the BCS or not. The table consists of all 16 possible outcomes, what the bowl positioning would be for each of them, and a comment. The permutations are ranked in order of likelihood. Some of them at the bottom are insanely unlikely, because they would require a 10-2 Arizona State team to be passed over for a BCS at-large spot, or for a 9-3 Pac-10 team to get a BCS at-large spot.

Short version: UCLA is a more likely opponent than I originally thought.

[table][tr][td][/td][/tr]

[tr]

[td]#[/td]

[td]Plausibility[/td]

[td]Ore- OSU[/td]

[td]ASU- Ariz[/td]

[td]USC- Ucla[/td]

[td]2 in BCS?[/td]

[td]USC (6)[/td]

[td]ASU (6)[/td]

[td]Ore (5)[/td]

[td]OSU (5)[/td]

[td]Ucla (5)[/td]

[td]Ariz (4)[/td]

[td]Rose[/td]

[td]BCS[/td]

[td]Hol[/td]

[td]Sun[/td]

[td]Note[/td][/tr]

[tr]

[td]1[/td]

[td]MOST LIKELY[/td]

[td]Ore[/td]

[td]ASU[/td]

[td]USC[/td]

[td]Y[/td]

[td]7[/td]

[td]7[/td]

[td]6[/td]

[td]5[/td]

[td]5[/td]

[td]4[/td]

[td]USC[/td]

[td]ASU[/td]

[td]Ore[/td]

[td]OSU/UCLA[/td]

[td]OSU 7-5, UCLA 6-6; which does Sun Bowl prefer?[/td][/tr]

[tr]

[td]2[/td]

[td]SLIGHTLY LESS LIKELY[/td]

[td]OSU[/td]

[td]ASU[/td]

[td]USC[/td]

[td]Y[/td]

[td]7[/td]

[td]7[/td]

[td]5[/td]

[td]6[/td]

[td]5[/td]

[td]4[/td]

[td]USC[/td]

[td]ASU[/td]

[td]OSU[/td]

[td]Ore[/td]

[td]Sun would take 8-4 Ducks over 6-6 UCLA[/td][/tr]

[tr]

[td]3[/td]

[td]POSSIBLE[/td]

[td]Ore[/td]

[td]Ariz[/td]

[td]USC[/td]

[td]N[/td]

[td]7[/td]

[td]6[/td]

[td]6[/td]

[td]5[/td]

[td]5[/td]

[td]5[/td]

[td]USC[/td]

[td]x[/td]

[td]ASU/Ore[/td]

[td]Ore/ASU[/td]

[td]Depends on who Holiday prefers, ASU or Ore. Sun gets other.[/td][/tr]

[tr]

[td]4[/td]

[td]POSSIBLE[/td]

[td]OSU[/td]

[td]Ariz[/td]

[td]USC[/td]

[td]N[/td]

[td]7[/td]

[td]6[/td]

[td]5[/td]

[td]6[/td]

[td]5[/td]

[td]5[/td]

[td]USC[/td]

[td]x[/td]

[td]ASU/OSU[/td]

[td]OSU/ASU[/td]

[td]I suspect Holiday would prefer ASU to OSU. If so, Sun Bowl has option to take Oregon, UCLA, or Arizona instead of OSU. Suspect they would take Oregon.[/td][/tr]

[tr]

[td]5[/td]

[td]POSSIBLE[/td]

[td]Ore[/td]

[td]ASU[/td]

[td]Ucla[/td]

[td]N[/td]

[td]6[/td]

[td]7[/td]

[td]6[/td]

[td]5[/td]

[td]6[/td]

[td]4[/td]

[td]ASU[/td]

[td]x[/td]

[td]USC[/td]

[td]Ore[/td]

[td]Sun would take 9-3 Ducks over 7-5 UCLA[/td][/tr]

[tr]

[td]6[/td]

[td]POSSIBLE[/td]

[td]OSU[/td]

[td]ASU[/td]

[td]Ucla[/td]

[td]N[/td]

[td]6[/td]

[td]7[/td]

[td]5[/td]

[td]6[/td]

[td]6[/td]

[td]4[/td]

[td]ASU[/td]

[td]x[/td]

[td]USC[/td]

[td]UCLA/OSU[/td]

[td]OSU 8-4, UCLA 7-5; which would Sun Bowl prefer?[/td][/tr]

[tr]

[td]7[/td]

[td]POSSIBLE[/td]

[td]Ore[/td]

[td]Ariz[/td]

[td]Ucla[/td]

[td]N[/td]

[td]6[/td]

[td]6[/td]

[td]6[/td]

[td]5[/td]

[td]6[/td]

[td]5[/td]

[td]UCLA[/td]

[td]x[/td]

[td]USC[/td]

[td]ASU/Ore[/td]

[td]Sun picks between ASU and Oregon.[/td][/tr]

[tr]

[td]8[/td]

[td]POSSIBLE[/td]

[td]OSU[/td]

[td]Ariz[/td]

[td]Ucla[/td]

[td]N[/td]

[td]6[/td]

[td]6[/td]

[td]5[/td]

[td]6[/td]

[td]6[/td]

[td]5[/td]

[td]UCLA[/td]

[td]x[/td]

[td]USC[/td]

[td]ASU[/td]

[td]OSU an option but Sun Bowl would definitely take ASU[/td][/tr]

[tr]

[td]9[/td]

[td]LESS LIKELY (9-3 USC in BCS)[/td]

[td]Ore[/td]

[td]ASU[/td]

[td]Ucla[/td]

[td]Y[/td]

[td]6[/td]

[td]7[/td]

[td]6[/td]

[td]5[/td]

[td]6[/td]

[td]4[/td]

[td]ASU[/td]

[td]USC[/td]

[td]Ore/UCLA[/td]

[td]UCLA/Ore[/td]

[td]Depends on who Holiday prefers, 9-3 Ore or 7-5 UCLA. Sun Bowl gets other.[/td][/tr]

[tr]

[td]10[/td]

[td]LESS LIKELY (9-3 USC in BCS)[/td]

[td]OSU[/td]

[td]ASU[/td]

[td]Ucla[/td]

[td]Y[/td]

[td]6[/td]

[td]7[/td]

[td]5[/td]

[td]6[/td]

[td]6[/td]

[td]4[/td]

[td]ASU[/td]

[td]USC[/td]

[td]OSU/UCLA[/td]

[td]UCLA/OSU[/td]

[td]Sun would prob take 7-5 UCLA[/td][/tr]

[tr]

[td]11[/td]

[td]LESS LIKELY (9-3 USC in BCS)[/td]

[td]Ore[/td]

[td]Ariz[/td]

[td]Ucla[/td]

[td]Y[/td]

[td]6[/td]

[td]6[/td]

[td]6[/td]

[td]5[/td]

[td]6[/td]

[td]5[/td]

[td]UCLA[/td]

[td]USC[/td]

[td]ASU/Ore[/td]

[td]Ore/ASU[/td]

[td]Depends on who Holiday prefers, ASU or Ore[/td][/tr]

[tr]

[td]12[/td]

[td]LESS LIKELY (9-3 USC in BCS)[/td]

[td]OSU[/td]

[td]Ariz[/td]

[td]Ucla[/td]

[td]Y[/td]

[td]6[/td]

[td]6[/td]

[td]5[/td]

[td]6[/td]

[td]6[/td]

[td]5[/td]

[td]UCLA[/td]

[td]USC[/td]

[td]ASU[/td]

[td]OSU/Ore/Ariz[/td]

[td]Most likely Oregon or OSU[/td][/tr]

[tr]

[td]13[/td]

[td]UNLIKELY (10-2 ASU out of BCS)[/td]

[td]Ore[/td]

[td]ASU[/td]

[td]USC[/td]

[td]N[/td]

[td]7[/td]

[td]7[/td]

[td]6[/td]

[td]5[/td]

[td]5[/td]

[td]4[/td]

[td]USC[/td]

[td]x[/td]

[td]ASU[/td]

[td]Ore[/td]

[td]Oregon is only option[/td][/tr]

[tr]

[td]14[/td]

[td]UNLIKELY (10-2 ASU out of BCS)[/td]

[td]OSU[/td]

[td]ASU[/td]

[td]USC[/td]

[td]N[/td]

[td]7[/td]

[td]7[/td]

[td]5[/td]

[td]6[/td]

[td]5[/td]

[td]4[/td]

[td]USC[/td]

[td]x[/td]

[td]ASU[/td]

[td]OSU/Ore/UCLA[/td]

[td]Sun Bowl can use "pass" option; would take 8-4 Ore over 6-6 UCLA[/td][/tr]

[tr]

[td]15[/td]

[td]UNLIKELY (9-3 ASU/Ore in BCS)[/td]

[td]Ore[/td]

[td]Ariz[/td]

[td]USC[/td]

[td]Y[/td]

[td]7[/td]

[td]6[/td]

[td]6[/td]

[td]5[/td]

[td]5[/td]

[td]5[/td]

[td]USC[/td]

[td]ASU/Ore[/td]

[td]Ore/ASU[/td]

[td]OSU/UCLA/Ariz[/td]

[td]Sun Bowl can use "pass" option, but would they take 6-6 UCLA or 6-6 Ariz?[/td][/tr]

[tr]

[td]16[/td]

[td]UNLIKELY (9-3 ASU in BCS)[/td]

[td]OSU[/td]

[td]Ariz[/td]

[td]USC[/td]

[td]Y[/td]

[td]7[/td]

[td]6[/td]

[td]5[/td]

[td]6[/td]

[td]5[/td]

[td]5[/td]

[td]USC[/td]

[td]ASU[/td]

[td]OSU[/td]

[td]Ore[/td]

[td]Sun Bowl would take 8-4 Oregon over 6-6 UCLA/Az options[/td][/tr]

[/table]

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GarySJ Toro Magnifico

GarySJ

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Posted
Last I heard, our opponents for the Sun Bowl have come down to either Cal or Oregon.

Cal is not an option. The Sun Bowl's contract with the Pac-10 requires them to pick the highest team available in the Pac-10 standings. Cal is currently 3-5 in Pac-10 play and will finish 6th at best.

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jstewholymoly Mentor

jstewholymoly

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Posted

why would the Holiday Bowl automatically take USC over Oregon if the Trojans lost to UCLA... Thought they HAD to pick the second-best team. Oregon beat USC, so Oregon would go to Holiday and USC to Sun.  am I missing something?

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HOTMello2005 Mentor

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Posted

Nice table, Gary...

The chances for each are:

Oregon 62.5%

OSU 43.75%

ASU 31.25%

Arizona 12.5%

Quack. Quack. Quack.

Since each scenario is mutually exclusive....shouldn't the probabilities for the above teams equal no more than 100%?

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MechanicalBull Mentor

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Posted

So is it official regardless of the outcome of the ASU UA game:

OREGON?

I know we won't know for sure until tomorrow.

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GarySJ Toro Magnifico

GarySJ

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Posted
why would the Holiday Bowl automatically take USC over Oregon if the Trojans lost to UCLA... Thought they HAD to pick the second-best team. Oregon beat USC, so Oregon would go to Holiday and USC to Sun.  am I missing something?

USC would be tied for second with Oregon. If there's a tie the bowl can pick any team in the tie; tie-breakers are not applied. I assumed the Holiday Bowl would prefer USC.

USC won and is going to the Rose Bowl, so it's moot.

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GarySJ Toro Magnifico

GarySJ

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Posted

So is it official regardless of the outcome of the ASU UA game:

OREGON?

Looks like it to me.

Despite losing today, Oregon will still be the highest-ranked team available to the Sun Bowl. Considering the importance the Sun Bowl committee assigned to rankings when choosing a Big East team, I can't see them taking 6-6 UCLA, or a lower-ranked Oregon State team that went to El Paso last year.

The only other possibility is that Arizona State loses tonight, and the Holiday Bowl decides they like Oregon State better than Arizona State. But I think that is highly unlikely.

Bring on the Ducks.

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SANJAY Toro Magnifico

SANJAY

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Posted

Greg and Brett have the Sun Bowl saying they will be inviting Oregon.

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