Bowl Analysis -- Detailed by Conference -- Week 12

[Jim Johnson]

Bowl Analysis -- Week 12

There are 64 bowl slots... and currently 56 bowl eligible teams.

"Eligible" = 6 wins // "Ineligible" = 7 losses

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Big East conference - 5 Slots & 5 Eligible Teams

[table][tr][td]

Bowl Eligible: [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/bet/ci.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/bet/ct.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/bet/wv.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/bet/ru.gif

1 Win & In: [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/bet/ul.gif

2 Wins: [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/bet/pi.gif

[/td][td]                    [/td][td]

Bowl Ineligible: [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/bet/su.gif

1 Loss & Out: NONE

2 Losses: [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/bet/pi.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/bet/ul.gif

[/td][td]                    [/td][td]

Jim's Projections:

BCS (Orange) - [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/bet/wv.gif

Gator - [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/bet/sf.gif

Meineke - [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/bet/ci.gif

PapaJohns.com- [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/bet/ct.gif

International - [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/bet/ru.gif

[/td][/tr][/table]

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Atlantic Coast Conference - 8 Slots & 7 Eligible Teams

[table][tr][td]

Bowl Eligible: [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/acc/bc.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/acc/va.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/acc/vt.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/acc/wf.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/acc/cl.gif  [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/acc/fs.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/acc/gt.gif

1 Win & In: [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/acc/mi.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/acc/ns.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/acc/md.gif

2 Wins: NONE

[/td][td]                    [/td][td]

Bowl Ineligible: [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/acc/dk.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/acc/nc.gif

1 Loss & Out: NONE

2 Losses: [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/acc/ns.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/acc/md.gif

[/td][td]                    [/td][td]

Jim's Projections:

BCS (Orange) - [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/acc/vt.gif

Chik-Fil-A - [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/acc/cl.gif

Gator - [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/acc/bc.gif

Champs - [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/acc/va.gif

Music City - [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/acc/gt.gif

Meineke - [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/acc/wf.gif

Emerald - [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/acc/fs.gif

MPC Computers - [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/acc/md.gif

[/td][/tr][/table]

---

Big Ten Conference - 7 Slots & 9 Eligible Teams

[table][tr][td]

Bowl Eligible: [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/b10/os.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/b10/ps.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/b10/wi.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/b10/pu.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/b10/mi.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/b10/il.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/b10/in.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/b10/ms.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/b10/nw.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/b10/io.gif

[/td][td]                    [/td][td]

Bowl Ineligible: [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/b10/mn.gif

[/td][td]                    [/td][td]

Jim's Projections:

BCS (Rose) - [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/b10/os.gif

Capitol 1 - [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/b10/il.gif

Outback - [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/b10/mi.gif

Champs - [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/b10/wi.gif

Alamo - [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/b10/ps.gif

Insight - [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/b10/pu.gif

Motor City - [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/b10/io.gif

Emerald (Pac Ten Slot) - [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/b10/ms.gif

[/td][/tr][/table]

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Big Twelve Conference - 8 Slots & 6 Eligible Teams

[table][tr][td]

Bowl Eligible: [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/b12/ok.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/b12/tt.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/b12/ka.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/b12/mo.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/b12/tx.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/b12/am.gif

1 Win & In: [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/b12/os.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/b12/ks.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/b12/co.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/b12/ne.gif

2 Wins: NONE

[/td][td]                    [/td][td]

Bowl Ineligible: [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/b12/is.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/b12/ba.gif

1 Loss & Out: [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/b12/ne.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/b12/co.gif

2 Losses: [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/b12/am.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/b12/ks.gif

[/td][td]                    [/td][td]

Jim's Projections:

BCS (Fiesta) - [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/b12/ok.gif

BCS (Sugar) - [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/b12/mo.gif

Cotton - [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/b12/ka.gif

Holiday - [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/b12/tx.gif

Sun - [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/b12/tt.gif

Alamo - [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/b12/am.gif

Insight - [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/b12/os.gif

Independence - [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/b12/co.gif

Texas - (OPEN)

[/td][/tr][/table]

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Pacific Ten Conference - 6 Slots & 4 Eligible Teams

[table][tr][td]

Bowl Eligible: [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/p10/as.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/p10/sc.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/p10/or.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/p10/ca.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/p10/os.gif

1 Win & In: [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/p10/la.gif

2 Wins: [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/p10/az.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/p10/ws.gif

[/td][td]                    [/td][td]

Bowl Ineligible: [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/p10/st.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/p10/wa.gif

1 Loss & Out: [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/p10/az.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/p10/ws.gif

2 Losses: [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/p10/la.gif

[/td][td]                    [/td][td]

Jim's Projections:

BCS (NCG) - [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/p10/or.gif

BCS (Rose) - [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/p10/as.gif

Holiday - [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/p10/sc.gif

Sun - [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/p10/ca.gif

Vegas - [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/p10/os.gif

Emerald - (OPEN)

Armed Forces Bowl - (OPEN)

[/td][/tr][/table]

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Southeastern Conference - 8 Slots & 10 Eligible Teams

[table][tr][td]

Bowl Eligible: [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/sec/ls.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/sec/sc.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/sec/ky.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/sec/al.gif[img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/sec/ga.gif  [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/sec/au.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/sec/fl.gif  [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/sec/ar.gif  [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/sec/tn.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/sec/ms.gif

1 Win & In: [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/sec/va.gif

2 Wins: NONE

[/td][td]                    [/td][td]

Bowl Ineligible: [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/sec/mi.gif

1 Loss & Out: NONE

2 Losses: [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/sec/va.gif

[/td][td]                    [/td][td]

Jim's Projections:

BCS (NCG) - [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/sec/ls.gif

BCS (Sugar) - [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/sec/ga.gif

Capitol 1 - [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/sec/tn.gif

Cotton - [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/sec/au.gif

Outback - [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/sec/fl.gif

Chick-Fil-A - [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/sec/al.gif

Music City - [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/sec/ky.gif

Liberty - [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/sec/ar.gif

Independence - [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/sec/ms.gif

[/td][/tr][/table]

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Conference USA - 6 Slots & 4 Eligible Teams

[table][tr][td]

Bowl Eligible: [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/usa/ec.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/usa/ts.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/usa/cf.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/usa/ho.gif

1 Win & In: [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/usa/so.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/usa/me.gif

2 Wins: [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/usa/ep.gif

[/td][td]                    [/td][td]

Bowl Ineligible: [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/usa/ri.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/usa/sm.gif  [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/usa/ma.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/usa/tn.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/usa/ab.gif

1 Loss & Out: NONE

2 Losses: [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/usa/ep.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/usa/me.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/usa/so.gif

[/td][td]                    [/td][td]

Jim's Projections:

Liberty - [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/usa/ec.gif

GMAC - [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/usa/so.gif

PapaJohns.com - [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/usa/cf.gif

New Orleans - [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/usa/ts.gif

Hawaii - [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/usa/me.gif

Texas - [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/usa/ho.gif

[/td][/tr][/table]

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Mid-American Conference - 3 Slots & 2 Eligible Teams

[table][tr][td]

Bowl Eligible: [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/mac/cm.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/mac/bg.gif

1 Win & In: [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/mac/bs.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/mac/mi.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/mac/oh.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/mac/to.gif

2 Wins: [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/mac/bu.gif

[/td][td]                    [/td][td]

Bowl Ineligible: [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/mac/ni.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/mac/em.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/mac/wm.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/mac/te.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/mac/ks.gif

1 Loss & Out: [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/mac/bu.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/mac/ak.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/mac/oh.gif

2 Losses: [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/mac/to.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/mac/mi.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/mac/bs.gif

[/td][td]                    [/td][td]

Jim's Projections:

Motor City - [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/mac/cm.gif

GMAC - [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/mac/bg.gif

International - [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/mac/mi.gif

[/td][/tr][/table]

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Mountain West Conference - 4 Slots & 4 Eligible Teams

[table][tr][td]

Bowl Eligible: [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/mwt/af.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/mwt/nm.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/mwt/ut.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/mwt/by.gif

1 Win & In: [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/mwt/wy.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/mwt/tc.gif

2 Wins: [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/mwt/sd.gif

[/td][td]                    [/td][td]

Bowl Ineligible: [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/mwt/cs.gif  [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/mwt/lv.gif

1 Loss & Out: NONE

2 Losses:  [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/mwt/sd.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/mwt/tc.gif

[/td][td]                    [/td][td]

Jim's Projections:

Las Vegas - [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/mwt/by.gif

Poinsettia - [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/mwt/nm.gif

Armed Forces - [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/mwt/af.gif

New Mexico - [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/mwt/ut.gif

Texas (Big 12 Slot) - [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/mwt/tc.gif

[/td][/tr][/table]

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Western Athletic Confernece - 3 Slots & 3 Eligible Teams

[table][tr][td]

Bowl Eligible: [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/wac/ha.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/wac/bs.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/wac/fs.gif

1 Win & In: [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/wac/nv.gif

2 Wins: [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/wac/lt.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/wac/sj.gif

[/td][td]                    [/td][td]

Bowl Ineligible: [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/wac/ut.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/wac/id.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/wac/nm.gif

1 Loss & Out:  [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/wac/sj.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/wac/lt.gif

2 Losses: NONE

[/td][td]                    [/td][td]

Jim's Projections:

BCS (Sugar) - [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/wac/ha.gif

MPC Computers - [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/wac/bs.gif

New Mexico - [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/wac/fs.gif

Hawaii - [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/wac/nv.gif

[/td][/tr][/table]

---

Sun Belt - 1 Slot & 1 Eligbile Team

[table][tr][td]

Bowl Eligible: [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/sun/tr.gif

1 Win & In: [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/sun/mt.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/sun/fa.gif

2 Wins: [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/sun/as.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/sun/lm.gif

[/td][td]                    [/td][td]

Bowl Ineligible: [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/sun/fi.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/sun/ll.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/sun/nt.gif

1 Loss & Out: [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/sun/lm.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/sun/mt.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/sun/as.gif

2 Losses: NONE

[/td][td]                    [/td][td]

Jim's Projections:

New Orleans - [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/sun/tr.gif

Armed Forces Bowl (Pac 10 Slot) - [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/sun/fa.gif

[/td][/tr][/table]

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I-A Indepenents - 1 Slot & 1 Eligible Team

[table][tr][td]

Bowl Eligible: [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/ind/nv.gif

[/td][td]                    [/td][td]

Bowl Ineligible: [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/ind/wk.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/ind/nd.gif [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/ind/ar.gif

[/td][td]                    [/td][td]

Jim's Projections:

Poinsettia - [img width=25 height=25]http://www.newtestdomain.com/teams/ind/nv.gif

[/td][/tr][/table]

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NCAA Bylaws

30.9.2 Contest Status. [i-A] A contest shall be licensed only if it serves the purpose of providing a national contest between deserving winning teams. A “deserving winning team” shall be defined as one that has won a minimum of six games against Division I-A opponents and that has more wins than losses. Tie games do not count in determining a team’s won-lost record. Further, when forfeiture of a regular-season football victory is required by the Committee on Infractions, a conference or self-imposed by an institution as a result of a violation of NCAA rules, neither of the competing institutions may count that contest in satisfying the definition of a “deserving winning team.” (Revised: 10/18/89, 10/12/93, 4/20/99)

30.9.2.1 Exception — 12 Game Season. An institution with a record of six wins and six losses may be selected for participation in a bowl game under the following circumstances: (Adopted: 4/27/06 effective 8/1/06)

(a) The institution or its conference has a primary contractual affiliation, which existed prior to the first contest of the applicable season, with the sponsoring bowl organization. In the case of a conference contractual affiliation, all conference teams with winning records must be placed in one of the contracted bowl games before any institution with a record of six wins and six losses may be placed in a contracted bowl game. There shall be no contingency agreements with other sponsoring bowl organizations intended to enable an institution with a record of six wins and six losses to become eligible for those contests; or

( All contractual affiliations per Bylaw 30.9.2.1-(a) have been fulfilled and all institutions with winning records have received bowl invitations (either through a contractual affiliation or as an at large selection).

(Emphasis added.)

[TheBullies]

Curious - can you break down for me how you figure we'll go to the Gator?

[theman123]

They wont get a bowl game but you forgot to put Army on there.

[Guest]

Curious - can you break down for me how you figure we'll go to the Gator?

Sure.

Okay. First let me say I have been telling people for weeks there was no way on God's green earth the Gator Bowl would take any Big East team and be stuck taking a Big 12 team the next two years.  I was dead serious about this.

But as the season is playing out, things could be changing.  Maybe I was wrong?

Since the game ended today, I've been doing some full analysis of all the bowl games, eligible teams, and remaining schedules ... and I saw something that could give Bulls fans some hope.

Consider this... and we are only entertaining this discussion assuming USF wins the next two games to finish 9-3.  A USF loss to either Louisville or Pittsburgh would render the rest of this post moot.

1. The "Weak 12"

First the Gator Bowl selects fourth (BCS, Cotton, Holiday, Gator) from the Big 12.  The Gator could select ahead of the Cotton, but only if the Big 12 gets only 1 team in a BCS bowl.  Since most people think the Big 12 will get 2 teams in the BCS, the Gator would have to take the FIFTH best team from the Big 12.

Okay, so two out of Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, and Missouri are going to the BCS.  The other two are going to the Cotton and Holiday bowl.  That means the Gator Bowl gets to choose from Texas Tech who will likely finish 7-5, and four possibly 6-6 teams (Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, the Colorado/Nebraska Winner, and maybe Kansas State if the Wildcats can get to 6-6).

So, the Gator Bowl's Big 12 team is going to be ... AT BEST 7-5 with a losing conference record -- and no where near the Top 25.

Okay. Let's set that aside for a moment.

2. The ACC

The Gator Bowl gets the third team from the ACC (BCS, Chick-Fil-A, Gator).  Next week Va Tech plays UVa for the Coastal Division and BC goes to Clemson for the Atlantic Division.  The losers of those two games would finish, at best, 9-3.  So the Gator Bowl would probably be interested in Clemson or Virginia Tech if UVA wins next week.  Regardless, the ACC team will bring a significant fan base and help sell tickets.

3. The Big Least??

Now, we have weak options for the Gator Bowl in the Big 12.  The Big East isn't that much better.  WVU will probably win out and go to the BCS.  If that happens and USF wins out, then USF, U Conn, and Cincinnati will all be 9-3...

So let's look at the BCS Standings.  Going into today's games, U Conn was #13, USF #28, and Cincy #30.  Cincinnati will likely jump over USF, but not by that much.  U Conn will also fall - but probably not below USF and Cincy.  Let's say the standings next week will be somewhere around #21 U Conn, #24 Cincy, #25 USF.  (Remember, Wisconsin and Illinois were also behind USF and beat higher ranked teams, so USF won't climb that much).  The current standings are #22 Cincy, #24 U Conn, and #27 USF.

Then if WVU beats both Cincy and U Conn the next two weeks, and USF wins it's games, they will both drop below USF.  USF would climb to, maybe, #15 - #18, while Cincy and U Conn will both be outside the Top 25.

4. Gator Dilemma

Okay. So you're the Gator Bowl Selection Committee.  You are dead certain to have a Top 20 ACC team in either BC, Clemson, UVA, or Va Tech... The Big 12 doesn't have any Top 20 teams available for you; their best available team is a 7-5 Texas Tech team that isn't getting a single vote from anyone.  The only Big East Top 20 team is the South Florida Bulls, who are 9-3, while U Conn and Cincy are probably getting some votes.

Now, none of these three Big East teams travel very well.  USF is in Tampa, barely a four hour drive away, and the fans are starving for a "respectable" bowl game after the mid-season swoon had them checking the rules for getting to Canada.

Who do you take??

From the [iurl=http://thebullspen.com/index.php?topic=41993.0]Could USF Still go to the Gator Bowl?[/iurl] thread...

[Guest]

They wont get a bowl game but you forgot to put Army on there.

Had a typo in the image file name...

[Cubanbull]

we need to do our part and win out and hope texas tech gets bombed by OU

[8u11`o3]

Which ACC participant in the Gator bowl would compliment USF the most in the eyes of the selection committee?

Would they be more likely to select USF if they already had a local(southern) representative from the ACC?  Or would they be more inclined to select USF if they couldn’t get a local team from the ACC and were then forced to select from the Big East to get a local team?

[Guest]

Which ACC participant in the Gator bowl would compliment USF the most in the eyes of the selection committee?

Would they be more likely to select USF if they already had a local(southern) representative from the ACC?  Or would they be more inclined to select USF if they couldn’t get a local team from the ACC and were then forced to select from the Big East to get a local team?

That's the real question, isn't it.

But in reality there isn't a "local" team for Jacksonville... FSU, Miami, Ga Tech, and Clemson are the closest ACC schools... so they rarely have a team you might think of as "local" ... still, a lot of the ACC programs have large traveling fan bases (esp. Clemson and Va Tech)... so they can afford to take a 2nd team that doesn't travel too well.

The choice will be between the loser of the Clemson-BC game this week and the UVa-Va Tech game next week...

[8u11`o3]

When I say local, I have Clemson in mind.

I'm trying to figure if it would be better to have Clemson or BC in the Gator bowl.  The only way Clemson can get to the Gator bowl is if they lose to BC this week, otherwise they will be in the Orange bowl or the Chik-Fil-A will snatch them with their first selection after BCS.

If the Gator gets Clemson, it may not make much of a difference to the committee who the other team is, so they wouldn't mind taking Texas Tech if it allows them more flexibility for the next two years.

But if they are left with BC, they might feel a need to choose USF in order to bolster local support.

[USF Colby]

Do you think Tennessee is going to lose in the SEC title game? Obviously they make it unless they lose once due to head to head victory over Georgia, and if they lose again they will be below Florida in the SEC standings.

As much as I love going to Outback Bowls, I hope the Gators are in Capitol One so therefore if the Bulls go to a bowl game I can't afford to attend I can just drive to Orlando and catch my second favorite team. The Outback Bowl seems so pointless because i've already been to 3, or actually 4 because I went to the 99 one (98 season) with Kentucky-Penn State, Tim Couch was in his final collegiate game that day.

As for USF in the Gator, would love it if it happened but I really think they would take a bad Texas Tech over USF this year out of hopes of getting Notre Dame or WVU next year. That would likely mean Sun Bowl if we finished second which I probably wouldn't be able to attend.