SOS and Computer Polls

[windbane]

Lots of talk lately about how UL and WVU SOS would hurt them in BCS rankings.  Well, those people ignored the games to come for them.

Current SOS rankings according to CBSsportsline:

Ohio State:  32  (wow, that Illinois sure didnt help, huh?)

Louisville: 39  (30 or so increase in 1 game)

Auburn: 26  (hah)

USC:  24

WVU:  35  (huge increase)

Rutgers:  63  (with both WVU and UL to go, wow)

Notre Dame:  30

Wisconsin:  46  (and does not play OSU)

Arkansas:  58 (hah)

Wake Forrest:  104 (and yet ties maryland for lead in division, and beat BC last weekend.  didnt hurt them so far)

just some interesting cases.  there are several teams I left off that have very high SOS (UF is at 5, Michigan is at 14, Cal at 6), but I think the examples above prove a point. UL plays another undefeated team next week, too.  Lots of good big east games to come for all 3 top big east teams, including 6-3 USF (heh).  All of their SOS's will go up.  Also, OSU's boost against michigan doesnt count for much more than the game UL will play against rutgers.  SOS is unbiased.

http://www.sportsline.com/collegefootball/polls/119

[windbane]

Also, some computer polls comparisons from BCS:  

Louisville:  3rd, right behind OSU and Michigan

UF:  5th

Texas:  10th

Auburn:  8th

USC:  7th

Cal:  4th

Notre Dame: 6th

WVU:  14th

Arkansas:  13th

Rutgers:  9th

Computers like big east, especially UL right now.  I would expect Rutgers to vault to #3 or so if they beat UL, too.  The human polls like the big east.  It seems a lot of people that don't like the big east are on this board =)

[Joe]

The combined SOS from the 6 computer polls are as follows, www.collegebcs.com:

Ohio State:  22

Louisville: 25

Auburn: 15  

USC:  16

WVU:  47

Rutgers:  68

Notre Dame:  19

Wisconsin:  55  (They did play Michigan and lost)

Arkansas:  58  

Wake Forrest:  107

I don't think anyone (including most Auburn and Florida fans) really believe they'll pass Louisville as they did schedule decent teams. You will hear the media make a deal out of Louisville because they like controversy and Louisville/Big East is BCS controversy. The BCS will likely have 2 undefeated teams in the title game and they will be the only 2 undefeated within the autoBCS conferences.

Had WVU been up there we'd probably see an all out coup because of their OOC scheduling.

[windbane]

ah, nice, and similar results.  UL is in a great position.  and thanks for wisconsin correction.

UL is closer to michigan in BCS than UF.

UF is closer to notre dame (at #9) than UL in the BCS.  

[bulls96go]

shut up and play the games

[Bullpride08]

The combined SOS from the 6 computer polls are as follows, www.collegebcs.com:

Ohio State:  22

Louisville: 25

Auburn: 15  

USC:  16

WVU:  47

Rutgers:  68

Notre Dame:  19

Wisconsin:  55  (They did play Michigan and lost)

Arkansas:  58  

Wake Forrest:  107

I don't think anyone (including most Auburn and Florida fans) really believe they'll pass Louisville as they did schedule decent teams. You will hear the media make a deal out of Louisville because they like controversy and Louisville/Big East is BCS controversy. The BCS will likely have 2 undefeated teams in the title game and they will be the only 2 undefeated within the autoBCS conferences.

Had WVU been up there we'd probably see an all out coup because of their OOC scheduling.

Good point about WVU's SOS, of course it got a nice boost when Maryland beat Clemson to go to 7-2, and MSU finally beat an SEC team- those so called tough SEC teams that can't seem to put away even their bottom feeders like MSU, Ole Piss, UK, and Vandy...who have combined to lose three non-BCS games, and lose miserably to two BE teams (sorry had to get in the dig- I don't like kissing SEC butt just because they beat-up each other).

UL's OOC schedule is actually turning out to look pretty good.  KSU just got it's 6th win to go to 6-2, and will probably win 7 maybe 8 games this year surprisingly.  Worst defeat was to UL.  UK beat UGA to go to 5-4, and if they can manage to sneak one more win out will go bowling.  Then they scheduled Miami, not your typical UM team, but beating them 34-7 when teams like Vtech, FSU, and Gtech struggled mightily to beat them is going to sit very well with pollsters.

Yeah, this year UL's OOC schedule is solid enough to be impressive by BCS standards, beat Rutgers, USF, and Pitt and then their SOS should be hovering in the mid-20's, more than bearable for pollsters to look at it and not allow a one loss team to leapfrog.  Particularly since they went out and played a pretty decent OOC schedule.  If UL goes undefeated this year and into the BCS CHampionship game it would be HUGE for the BE and USF.  It would be better for UL to be the one, not only are they building a great program, and it would raise the profile of another BE program, but their OOC schedule wouldn't be bad enough for detractors to pick it apart.  

[windbane]

Yeah, this year UL's OOC schedule is solid enough to be impressive by BCS standards, beat Rutgers, USF, and Pitt and then their SOS should be hovering in the mid-20's, more than bearable for pollsters to look at it and not allow a one loss team to leapfrog.  

I think it'll be higher than that.  It's already 25 and they play 2 6-3 teams and an undefeated team.  Great point about their competition winning. I love that Alabama lost to Miss State.  SEC people will just say that means Miss State is awesome now, though.  And Vandy is a powerhouse even without Cutler because they stood up to UF.  *sigh*

[Bullpride08]

Yeah, this year UL's OOC schedule is solid enough to be impressive by BCS standards, beat Rutgers, USF, and Pitt and then their SOS should be hovering in the mid-20's, more than bearable for pollsters to look at it and not allow a one loss team to leapfrog.  

I think it'll be higher than that.  It's already 25 and they play 2 6-3 teams and an undefeated team.  Great point about their competition winning. I love that Alabama lost to Miss State.  SEC people will just say that means Miss State is awesome now, though.  And Vandy is a powerhouse even without Cutler because they stood up to UF.  *sigh*

Yeah it goes on and on, and on.  No one can debate that the SEC is one of the premier conferences, and has lots of good athletes, but I also feel many of the programs have had attrition problems recently, and they've got a bunch of really good programs but no really great team.  LSU seems a year away if they can keep all their weapons, UT too, Auburn, and obviously UF, but all of those guys have had to see many of their great talent skip town early or are dealing with young QB's, or guys getting kicked out of school.  To me those four programs are all a year away from being great, next year I believe they will be truly top heavy again with a powerhouse team like LSU, UT, or UF....talent, regardless how good it is out of HS, needs time to develop, just ask FSU right now.

Honestly, the only one loss team that would have any legit shot to leapfrog say an undefeated UL would be Texas if they also win out.  They'd be 12-1, and possibly have lost only to the #1 team in the nation.  That one could sell a heck of a lot better than UF's or Auburn's which at the end of the day could be a loss to a a two loss or more team.  Hard to argue if UF goes all the way with 1 loss, and it's to say a 9-3 Auburn, or if Auburn goes all the way and their loss is to a 9-3 ARK team.  Yeah, Texas is the only team that would scare me if I was an undefeated BE team.

[Bull Dozer]

Neither are powers but if an sec team is up to play and you dont perform anyone can beat anyone.  Can the same be said for uconn or cuse against the top teams in the BE?  Also 4 of vandy's 6 losses have been by 7pts or less, including 2 by 3 points or less.  A couple of bounces here or there and they are bowl eligible.  No one is saying EVERY team in the SEC is a powerhouse but there are no easy weeks in which you can sleep walk through the game.  If you dont show up any team can scare or even in some cases beat you.  Also miss st beating an unranked bamma isnt very impressive as bamma has had no offense to speak of for the last couple years.  Thinking that miss st beating bamma proves the sec is weak is off base as they at this point in the season are not considered a power in the conference but rather a middle of the road  SEC team.  Also you still cant argue about the SEC being weak when there still are 5 teams in the top 15 (33.33% of the top 15) from the SEC.  Oh yeah but i forgot all those teams are way overrated and just living off their past and brand recognition  : .  

[windbane]

here we go again?  ugh.

SEC people always argue their games 1 way:  positive for the conference no matter what.  That's my biggest problem.  I was not saying Alabama was a top team that isn't very good because they lost to Miss State.  Obviously, they are not very good.  Miss State hadnt beat a road team in the SEC in 2 seasons.  And yet, Alabama nearly beat Arkansas and Tennessee.  You can't argue both ways.  The "top 15" Arkansas can't be a dominate team if they are beating Alabama by 1 point.  

And don't get me wrong, I believe Arkansas deserves to be ranked high more than some of the other SEC teams in the top 15 (which, btw, there are only 4 if you are using the BCS, UT is 16th  ).  I just think they are all good teams that were ranked high in preseason so their losses keep them in the top 25.  I just don't see a dominate SEC team.  Sure, every game is tough in the SEC if no one team is far and away better than the rest.

Is Vandy close to being really good, or are they just decent enough to compete with good teams that arent dominant? I think it's the latter.

I agree with what you said about Alabama not having offense, though.  They had Prothroe (however you spell that) until he made his leg rubber.  But I think most of the SEC teams are lacking offense.  UF can't even put up a lot of points lately.

Both Mississippi teams and Vandy are not good teams.  If they compete with the other teams, you can't elevate them every time.  Sometimes, it says more abotu the teams they compete with and beat.  Sometimes?  Please?