McNeese point spread...

[JohnStOnge]

For what it's worth, these ranking have us just a little bit higher .....

http://www.mratings.com/cf/compare.htm

For some reason my "paste" function isn't working right now but what you need to do is go to the site you linked and click "Last Week." That will give you the final 2005 ratings.  And they show USF's "consensus" rating at 49 while Southern Miss' is 58.  

But...just an interesting little trivia bit:  The team rated one spot above USF in those final 2005 ratings, Stanford, lost to a I-AA team last year (UC Davis).

[BullsFanInTX]

If McNeese is a playoff caliber I-AA team, 20 or so points might not be a bad spread to choose.  Since the BCS started in 1998, the average outcome for games between BCS league schools and schools that have gone on to make the I-AA playoffs is BCS league team winning by 22.8 points.

In all games between BCS leagues and I-AAs over the period, the average outcome has been BCS league team by 28.7.

Another consideration is the fact that the Big East is now a "tweener" league.  It doesn't represent the kind of overall caliber of play as all six of the BCS leagues did prior to 2004.

McNeese has usually been a playoff caliber team since 1991, but was obviously not in 2004 and 2005.  

In previous games against BCS league squads, McNeese played fairly respectably at Texas A&M (24-38) in 2001 and Nebraska (38-14) in 2003 but was knocked out of games early by Miami (14-61) in 2000 and Kansas State (14-55) in 2003.  Of course, 2000 was the year there was controversy over Florida State being in the BCS title game over Miami and Kansas State won the Big 8 Championship by beating previously undefeated Oklahoma 35 - 7 in 2003.

Against Texas A&M, McNeese led 24 - 10 in the third  quarter and was tied 24 - 24 at the end of the third quarter.  The game was in doubt until Texas A&M returned an interception for a TD to bring the score to 38 - 24 with 4:42 to go.

If McNeese has a playoff caliber team, I think the Cowboys have a decent chance to make this a competetive game.  I don't think USF is of the caliber of Miami in 2000 or Kansas State in 2003.  But whether or not McNeese is back to being a playoff caliber team is open to question.

We should have a top15 or 20 defense.  I hardly see us giving up 24 points to UL or WVU, let alone Mcneese, like they scored on Texas A&M in 01.  I would be shocked if McNeese scored more than 10 or 14 points.  The big question is, will our offense put the game away early or will they struggle and let them hang around for a while.  

[JohnStOnge]

We should have a top15 or 20 defense.  I hardly see us giving up 24 points to UL or WVU, let alone Mcneese, like they scored on Texas A&M in 01.  I would be shocked if McNeese scored more than 10 or 14 points.  The big question is, will our offense put the game away early or will they struggle and let them hang around for a while.  

In 2001, Texas A&M's defense finished 10th in total defense and 13th in scoring defense among I-As.  Having said that,  McNeese scored two defensive TDs during the game while Texas A&M scored one.  So the Texas A&M offense outscored the McNeese offense 31 - 10.   McNeese's offense produced 15 first downs and 241 yards.

One thing is that, then, McNeese had a strong defense among I-AAs.  That was usually the case during 1991 - 2003.  During 2004 and 2005, McNeese had an uncharacteristically weak I-AA defense.  In fact, in 2004 it set a school record for points allowed and wasn't much better by that measure in 2005.

[MikeG]

two items:

1) We are not at a point where we can take a team like Southern Miss for granted. They are still qaulity and while we may be a bit better, it is not by that much. Also-- using the Louisville score differential but ignoring the a tough loss like the one to UConn is a little too convenient. That was last year anyway.

2) I can't believe we have fans dissing 1-AA teams after all that crap we heard on our way up the food chain in 1-AA and then transitioning to 1-A. Have you guys forgot how terrible that was to have someone basically dismiss a program simply based on the level they play on?

All I know is this-- we better show up ready to play and step on the neck of McNeese. I don't fear them and predict a lopsided win. But you can never take any opponent for granted. Ask the Russian hockey team in 1980.

[McNeese72]

two items:

But you can never take any opponent for granted.

But we are just a little ole' I-AA team!   You can take us for granted.    

Doc

[E.T.]

My Brother is in Vegas right now, I called him to see what he could get for all of the games... Should hear from him today.

Do they even have odds for 1a vs 1aa games out there?

Larger bookmakers usually do not ... some local guys give odds ... my contact the first year of C-USA did.

But as also stated, the reason is that most do not follow the 1AA teams and would be too difficult to do them ... and the demand is too low to take the time.

[JohnStOnge]

But you can never take any opponent for granted. Ask the Russian hockey team in 1980.

No need to look up the 1980 Soviet Hockey team.  Just ask Stanford's 2005 football team.

[Guest RETROPOKE]

Here's the best way to get educated about I-AA! The onle I-AA preview out there.

http://www.retro-sports.com/ItemDetail.cfm?ItemID=8290&CategoryID=160&ProductlineID=15&currentpage=1