McNeese point spread...

[BullsFanInTX]

We are by far alot better than Southern Piss

Not according to last season! ;D

How many top ten teams did southern miss beat last year??? (answer: none)  The CUSA level of competition is terrible.  NOWHERE NEAR the level USF played: Penn State, Miami, WVU, UL, even Rutgers and Pitt.  ALL above any competition in CDOA.  ALL of the above teams would have rolled in CDOA competition.  You can't compare the schedule (see above) that USF played and went to a bowl with with a CDOA schedule.  

Oh, and one other thing, are you REALLY telling us that Southern Miss would have beaten UL by 30+ and stayed within 10 points of a top 5 Penn State, or even stayed within 2 TD's of a WVU team that beat SEC champ Georgia (all of which USF did).  If that is what you believe then I have some land I want to sell you.

[twillybull]

Mcneese will keep this game closer than anyone will expect, for the first quarter.  

[McNeese72]

The spread is only designed to get equal betting on both sides, and is in no means a scientific expectation to the game. That being said Mcneese will be lucky if they keep it with 35.

35 is good.   50 or 55 is better.

South Florida is going to destroy us.

Have pity on our poor little I-AA players!   They maybe small, but they are slow!

Doc

[JohnStOnge]

The spread is only designed to get equal betting on both sides, and is in no means a scientific expectation to the game. .

The final line represents kind of a "consensus" of people who bet and it represents about as good a predictor over a large number of games as you're going to find.  If you're interested in that sort of thing, here's a web site that tracks how well various systems do in predicting outcomes: http://tbeck.freeshell.org/

At "Results" you can click on each year and see how different systems did for that year.  For 2005, for instance, the updated line had a bias of 0.02 and a mean error of 11.9.  You may already know...but just in case...bias is the average of all the observed outcomes minus the predicted outcomes.  For example, if you have a spread of 10 in one game and the favorite wins by 7 then you have a spread of 7 in the next game and the favorite loses by one, you'd have a bias for those two games of [(7 - 3) + (-1 - 7)]/2 = (4 +(-8))/2 = -2.  The goal is a bias of 0.

The mean error is the average of the absolute values of how far the predictions are off.  So in the example with two scores above the mean error for those two scores would be (4 + 8_/2 = 6.  Having a mean error of 11.9 is very good.

If you doubt that, try it sometime.  Take out the paper the morning before the Saturday games, look at 20 games or so, and try picking who is going to win and by how much.  Next morning, see if your bias is as close to zero as the line's is or if your mean error is as small.  

[Guest RETROPOKE]

We are by far alot better than Southern Piss

Not according to last season! ;D

How many top ten teams did southern miss beat last year??? (answer: none)  The CUSA level of competition is terrible.  NOWHERE NEAR the level USF played: Penn State, Miami, WVU, UL, even Rutgers and Pitt.  ALL above any competition in CDOA.  ALL of the above teams would have rolled in CDOA competition.  You can't compare the schedule (see above) that USF played and went to a bowl with with a CDOA schedule.  

Oh, and one other thing, are you REALLY telling us that Southern Miss would have beaten UL by 30+ and stayed within 10 points of a top 5 Penn State, or even stayed within 2 TD's of a WVU team that beat SEC champ Georgia (all of which USF did).  If that is what you believe then I have some land I want to sell you.

USM only lost to Bama by 9 and that Bama team was one of best all year till they lost their best receiver near the end of the year, then they lost to LSU and Auburn to end the year. They certainly hung with them and the SEC is arguably the toughest conf in I-A.  You can claim the big east is better, but a win by WVU over Georgia doesn't make you better, nor does it make USM worse because of more bottom feeders in their conf. As i said,  when you look at your common opponents last year, USM faired better.. Plain and Simple.

[Triple B]

My Brother is in Vegas right now, I called him to see what he could get for all of the games... Should hear from him today.

Do they even have odds for 1a vs 1aa games out there?

[Triple B]

USM only lost to Bama by 9 and that Bama team was one of best all year till they lost their best receiver near the end of the year, then they lost to LSU and Auburn to end the year. They certainly hung with them and the SEC is arguably the toughest conf in I-A.  You can claim the big east is better, but a win by WVU over Georgia doesn't make you better, nor does it make USM worse because of more bottom feeders in their conf. As i said,  when you look at your common opponents last year, USM faired better.. Plain and Simple.

For what it's worth, these ranking have us just a little bit higher .....

http://www.mratings.com/cf/compare.htm

[JohnStOnge]

If McNeese is a playoff caliber I-AA team, 20 or so points might not be a bad spread to choose.  Since the BCS started in 1998, the average outcome for games between BCS league schools and schools that have gone on to make the I-AA playoffs is BCS league team winning by 22.8 points.

In all games between BCS leagues and I-AAs over the period, the average outcome has been BCS league team by 28.7.

Another consideration is the fact that the Big East is now a "tweener" league.  It doesn't represent the kind of overall caliber of play as all six of the BCS leagues did prior to 2004.

McNeese has usually been a playoff caliber team since 1991, but was obviously not in 2004 and 2005.  

In previous games against BCS league squads, McNeese played fairly respectably at Texas A&M (24-38) in 2001 and Nebraska (38-14) in 2003 but was knocked out of games early by Miami (14-61) in 2000 and Kansas State (14-55) in 2003.  Of course, 2000 was the year there was controversy over Florida State being in the BCS title game over Miami and Kansas State won the Big 8 Championship by beating previously undefeated Oklahoma 35 - 7 in 2003.

Against Texas A&M, McNeese led 24 - 10 in the third  quarter and was tied 24 - 24 at the end of the third quarter.  The game was in doubt until Texas A&M returned an interception for a TD to bring the score to 38 - 24 with 4:42 to go.

If McNeese has a playoff caliber team, I think the Cowboys have a decent chance to make this a competetive game.  I don't think USF is of the caliber of Miami in 2000 or Kansas State in 2003.  But whether or not McNeese is back to being a playoff caliber team is open to question.

[BullsFanInTX]

We are by far alot better than Southern Piss

Not according to last season! ;D

How many top ten teams did southern miss beat last year??? (answer: none)  The CUSA level of competition is terrible.  NOWHERE NEAR the level USF played: Penn State, Miami, WVU, UL, even Rutgers and Pitt.  ALL above any competition in CDOA.  ALL of the above teams would have rolled in CDOA competition.  You can't compare the schedule (see above) that USF played and went to a bowl with with a CDOA schedule.  

Oh, and one other thing, are you REALLY telling us that Southern Miss would have beaten UL by 30+ and stayed within 10 points of a top 5 Penn State, or even stayed within 2 TD's of a WVU team that beat SEC champ Georgia (all of which USF did).  If that is what you believe then I have some land I want to sell you.

USM only lost to Bama by 9 and that Bama team was one of best all year till they lost their best receiver near the end of the year, then they lost to LSU and Auburn to end the year. They certainly hung with them and the SEC is arguably the toughest conf in I-A.  You can claim the big east is better, but a win by WVU over Georgia doesn't make you better, nor does it make USM worse because of more bottom feeders in their conf. As i said,  when you look at your common opponents last year, USM faired better.. Plain and Simple.

Still didn't answer my questions.  Would they have beaten UL by 30 and loss to a top 5 one loss Penn St, at Penn St., by 10.  The answer to those questions is no.  I am not saying USM is a bottom feeder, but the level of competition faced last year between USF and USM is night and day.  They are within striking distance of USF, but USF is clearly better.  Look at just about every preseason poll and they are significantly higher in some for what the polls are worth.

[Guest R_to_the_izzo]

We are by far alot better than Southern Piss

Not according to last season! ;D

How many top ten teams did southern miss beat last year??? (answer: none)  The CUSA level of competition is terrible.  NOWHERE NEAR the level USF played: Penn State, Miami, WVU, UL, even Rutgers and Pitt.  ALL above any competition in CDOA.  ALL of the above teams would have rolled in CDOA competition.  You can't compare the schedule (see above) that USF played and went to a bowl with with a CDOA schedule.  

Oh, and one other thing, are you REALLY telling us that Southern Miss would have beaten UL by 30+ and stayed within 10 points of a top 5 Penn State, or even stayed within 2 TD's of a WVU team that beat SEC champ Georgia (all of which USF did).  If that is what you believe then I have some land I want to sell you.

USM only lost to Bama by 9 and that Bama team was one of best all year till they lost their best receiver near the end of the year, then they lost to LSU and Auburn to end the year. They certainly hung with them and the SEC is arguably the toughest conf in I-A.  You can claim the big east is better, but a win by WVU over Georgia doesn't make you better, nor does it make USM worse because of more bottom feeders in their conf. As i said,  when you look at your common opponents last year, USM faired better.. Plain and Simple.

We had 1 common opponent. We both beat UCF. Both USF and USM blew them out. If you think the CUSA isnt a weaker conference then you obviously should stick to watching 1AA football.