How many of those teams have losses to teams in the 200s or worse in NET? We've got two of those. Another loss to a team in the 150s and another loss (Hofstra) is around us in the rankings. Just as an example, with Tennessee highlighted with 4 losses. 3 of those losses were to teams still sitting in the top 4. Their worst loss is to #40 Mississippi State. FAU has one around Hofstra's level and one (FGCU) in the 250s. But they also have the cachet from being a Final Four team a year ago. If we end up around the same record, guess who's getting the benefit of the doubt (and the invite)?
You can be an optimist and still recognize that the odds are long for an at-large bid. The odds get a little less long with each win, but as we've seen with a team like Kansas (losing to UCF lol), winning night after night, week after week, without stumbling at all is HARD, even with the best players in the league. That's what makes it a longshot.