Initial bracket thoughts

[BULLO12]

I don't care as long as UCF has their arses WHIPPED like a cur dog in the first round.  I want them going down in flames!!!!!!

[ChiTownBull]

UNC wins it all over Arizona. Wake comes out of the Louisville bracket. Dial in Arizona as another final four team. Syracuse rounds it up.

Take that to Vegas.

wake and unc will choke

[RHBullsFan]

Louisville got hosed big time....should be a 3 seed IMO.

How is Kentucky 2 seeds higher than UF when they lost the championship game to UF? I think both should be 3 seeds.

NC State should no way make the tourney....only reason they got by Wake in the ACCs was because Chris Paul was suspended.

Washington a 1 seed? I don't see it.

[Jim Johnson]

To answer the question about UNC being #1...

The committee actually does rank all 65 teams from 1 to 65... Illinois is #1 - as most pundits talked about last night.  They get to play in Indianapolis and Chicago... you can figure the rankings based on how far a team has to travel to play their games (Duke is #4 - in the Austin bracket).

Also, Gary, every year a #12 team beats a #5... so look for a team like New Mexico (which is already miffed about the lack of respect) to win.

Here are my thoughts.

CHICAGO:

- Does anyone think a team other than Illinois comes out of this bracket?

- This one seems to have the best chances for the 1-2-3-4 seeds to make it to the Sweet 16.

- 5-12 matchup: Wisconsin-Milwaukee could topple unsuspecting Alabama... but not likely

ALBEQUERQUE:

- This is the weakest region... UW is over rated, and U of L is underrated.. figure the Cards win this one.

- WVU will be the Cinderella here... they will build on their efforts from the Big East tourney, and beat both Wake and Gonzaga

- 3 New Big East teams in this bracket: UofL, WVU, and Pittsburgh

SYRACUSE:

- North Carolina has a tough row... looking at a matchup with Kansas or UConn (I pick U Conn) in the Elite 8... but they should come out on top.

- Future Big East brother will destroy UCF in round one.

- 5-12 Matchup: New Mexico will beat New Big East Brother Villanova.

AUSTIN:

- Duke will have some Texas fans when they face Oklahoma in the Regional Finals... but I think the OU faithful will be the factor.

- Cincinnati-Kentucky & Syracuse-Michigan State matchups in round 2 will be interesting to watch... could go either way (I pick New Big East brothers Cincy & 'Cuse).

FINAL FOUR:

- Illinois v Louisville (Go Cards!)

- UNC v Oklahoma (UNC dominates)

North Carolina beats Louisville for the Championship.

[sdgukhsdgl]

Tar Heels all the way...

and oh yea, Duke becomes the first team to lose a 1-16 game!  

[dabull80]

Depends on which conference you think is the best.  Clearly all the "experts" think the ACC has the top four teams and is the best.  The BE got no respect based on its seedings.  SEC is thought highly of and the PAC 10 and Big 10 are so so.  C-USA did well and after that it is a mixed bag.  UL has recently had a terrible post season record(1-3) and Cinci will be out quick also.  I like the BE and think you will see more sweet 16 teams from the BE then expected.  Look for four teams from the BE and ACC; three from the SEC and the Big 12; one from the Big 10 andWest Coast in the sweet 16.

[Jake_Ryan]

To answer Jim's question above . . . Oklahoma State comes out of the Chicago bracket and wins it all.

[Guest S.  Bien]

Louisville got hosed big time....should be a 3 seed IMO.

How is Kentucky 2 seeds higher than UF when they lost the championship game to UF? I think both should be 3 seeds.

NC State should no way make the tourney....only reason they got by Wake in the ACCs was because Chris Paul was suspended.

Washington a 1 seed? I don't see it.

RH, I agree with all your points, however remember sometimes the committee has stated that if they see a team that deserves say a #3, and they've got maybe 4-5 in that category, then they'll drop one down to four seed but give him the easy bracket of all the fours.  Conversely, they've said if they are having trouble deciding on 2 teams, either 3 or 4, then they'll give the bottom one the toughest as a 3, and the top one the easiest as a 4.

This is what appears to have happened to UL.   They've got the best #4 draw, sitting in Nashville, less than 2 hours from home, play a tough LA-LA, then Gtech or GW as the next game- Gtech is the only undeserving 5 seed, especially with Elders still hobbling, and it wouldn't surprise me to see GW win that (GW has beaten Mich St., Maryland, with solid losses to WF, and WVU).  Not to mention the Albuquerque bracket is probably the most wide-open.  UW is difficult to take seriously as a #1, WF is good but susceptible, and Gonzaga's the #3.....

Conversely if UL had received it's #3 that probably would have put them in the Austin, or Syracuse bracket- the two toughest by far, with legit #1, and #2's, plys some nasty 3's and 4's.

[Guest S.  Bien]

To answer the question about UNC being #1...

The committee actually does rank all 65 teams from 1 to 65... Illinois is #1 - as most pundits talked about last night.  They get to play in Indianapolis and Chicago... you can figure the rankings based on how far a team has to travel to play their games (Duke is #4 - in the Austin bracket).

Also, Gary, every year a #12 team beats a #5... so look for a team like New Mexico (which is already miffed about the lack of respect) to win.

Here are my thoughts.

CHICAGO:

- Does anyone think a team other than Illinois comes out of this bracket?

- This one seems to have the best chances for the 1-2-3-4 seeds to make it to the Sweet 16.

- 5-12 matchup: Wisconsin-Milwaukee could topple unsuspecting Alabama... but not likely

ALBEQUERQUE:

- This is the weakest region... UW is over rated, and U of L is underrated.. figure the Cards win this one.

- WVU will be the Cinderella here... they will build on their efforts from the Big East tourney, and beat both Wake and Gonzaga

- 3 New Big East teams in this bracket: UofL, WVU, and Pittsburgh

SYRACUSE:

- North Carolina has a tough row... looking at a matchup with Kansas or UConn (I pick U Conn) in the Elite 8... but they should come out on top.

- Future Big East brother will destroy UCF in round one.

- 5-12 Matchup: New Mexico will beat New Big East Brother Villanova.

AUSTIN:

- Duke will have some Texas fans when they face Oklahoma in the Regional Finals... but I think the OU faithful will be the factor.

- Cincinnati-Kentucky & Syracuse-Michigan State matchups in round 2 will be interesting to watch... could go either way (I pick New Big East brothers Cincy & 'Cuse).

FINAL FOUR:

- Illinois v Louisville (Go Cards!)

- UNC v Oklahoma (UNC dominates)

North Carolina beats Louisville for the Championship.

Jim, some good analysis, and rather gutsy picking UL, and OK.  I agree UL's in the only wide-open bracket, but OK is going to have a difficult time with Utah, Bogut is almost impossible to defend.

You said New Mexico would beat UF.  I don't think so, and the reason being is New Mexico has had fits playing against teams with good guards that can dribble penetrate, and shoot.  NMU's strength is on the inside and wings.  When Wake Forest visited "The Pitt" professed as one of the toughest places to play, they left with a 17pt victory, WF's top three scorers were their guards.   Nova has the bodies to defend NM inside, and NM does not have skilled enough backcourt players to stop Ray, or Foye.  I just don't see it, NM's schedule had a SOS of 319, and they snuck in by beating Utah in the conference tourney.  Without that win they're hosting another NIT game.  

I like Nova beating NM, and UF.  UF still loves to live and die with the perimeter game, and they won't like to see their top two scores contending all day with that Nova three guard set.

My pick for a #12 beating a #5 is clearly GW, over Gtech.  GW has some real power wins against Michigan State, Maryland, and WVU.  A telling comparison GT v. Maryland 79-71 Maryland, GW v. Maryland- GW 101-92.

Runner-up 5v12 is Old Dominion v. Michigan State, OD has got some height, and they're very quick at the guard spot.  They are also deep, playing 9-10 guys every night, which is what MSU does and maybe the only team MSU will face that has the deep bench, and can run with MSU.   However MSU is 18-4 since losing to GW, losing to only Illini, Wisconsin, a desperate Indi team, and Iowa (this loss probably cost them a 3 or possibly 2 seed).    Honestly, if OD doesn't beat MSU, then I think MSU beats Syracuse, and make for an interesting rematch of the early season showdown with Duke, where Duke beat them in Durham 81-74.  MSU could shock.

If you'

[GarySJ]

My thoughts:

Chicago region: This is set up for Illinois, but I think Oklahoma State can give them a game in the regional final. I think after this game is played, people will be saying that it should have been played in the Final Four.

Albuquerque region: This is the most wide-open region. I think any of the top five teams Washington, Wake Forest, Gonzaga, Louisville, or Georgia Tech can win it. I think an overlook Louisville team will get it done, though, perhaps against Gonzaga in the regional final.

Syracuse region: Everyone's picking North Carolina, but I'm not impressed with the Heels. I think they lack mental toughness. I don't think they match up well with a battle-tested school like Florida or UConn. I've got Florida over UNC in the Sweet 16, but I can't decide between UConn and UF in the regional final.

Austin: No one's paying Duke much attention, and that seems to be when they do their best work in the tournament. I think they can handle anyone in their region, though the Sweet 16 game vs Michigan State or Syracuse will be dangerous. Could be another legendary regional final versus Kentucky, but I'm not convinced the Cats will get that far either. This is the region I can't make up my mind about. How good is Utah? How good is Cincinnati? How vulnerable are Kentucky and Oklahoma?

Upsets: You know, I just don't see any. I look at the 4-13 games, and most of the 4s would normally be at least 3s (like Louisville), and the 13s would normally be 14s or lower (like Vermont). So I think all the 4s will escape round one.

As for the 5-12 games, Georgia Tech's playing too well, and Michigan State is too big and too experienced. That leaves Wisconsin-Milwaukee vs Alabama and New Mexico vs Villanova. If I have to pick one, I'll go with New Mexico, but I won't feel good about it. I wouldn't be surprised if all the 5 seeds win.

Final Four: I've got Illinois vs Louisville on one side, and Duke vs UF/UConn on the other. Give me Duke vs Illinois in a classic title game, and I'm going to pick Duke to win it.