Division I-A Bowl Game Analysis (Long)

[Jim Johnson]

Duh - I guess I should have checked the remaining schedules.

That's why I put them in my post! ;-)

[USFFan]

Well, both Colorado and Nebraska are 5-4, and they play each other ... so one of them will have to be 6-5 before the Big 12 Championship game, which means if they beat Oklahoma, then they would be 7-5, not 6-6.

It's mathematically impossible for the Big 12 Champion to be any worse than 7-5.  Sorry.

You're correct, but, let's say that Nebraska wins the North at 6-5, and Colorado also finishes at 6-5.  Colorado is assured a bowl bid because they're bowl eligible, but Nebraska might very well eliminate themselves from bowl contention by losing the conference championship game.  Kind of a crappy situation to be in, don't you think?

USFFan

[GarySJ]

Second, unless we sweep our remaining games, we'll go into that last game vs. Pittsburgh at 5-5 (likely what Pitt's record will be, too).  That means that bowls won't know whether we're going to be eligible until after December 4.  In all likelihood, they'll have made other arrangements before then.

5-5 Pitt vs 5-5 USF wouldn't be the worst outcome. An at-large bowl could simply agree to invite the winner of said game.

[TexanMark]

Good point about the USF/Pitt game but in reality the Bowls want to get their bids out on Nov 27th if possible.  As an outsider my feeling is USF chances look bleak.  Your only hope will be the Motor City Bowl in your scenario--the Pitt/USF winner could garner the bid.  Better hope the Big 10 doesn't get all their slots filled.  Historically 6-5 Big East teams have hard time getting bids.

[Kizarvexis]

Well here are the current C-USA standings.

7-1 (5-0) Louisville - Bowl Eligible (Liberty)

6-3 (4-2) UAB - Bowl Eligible

5-3 (4-2) So. Miss - needs 1 win (@TCU, UAB, Cal)

6-3 (3-3) Memphis - Bowl Eligible

5-4 (3-3) Cincinnati - needs 1 win (USF, @Lou)

4-4 (3-3) USF - needs 2 wins (@Cin, Mem, Pitt)

3-7 (3-4) Houston - out

4-5 (2-4) TCU - needs 2 wins (USM, Tul)

4-5 (2-4) Tulane - needs 2 wins (@TCU, Lou)

2-7 (2-5) ECU - out

2-7 (2-5) Army - out

C-USA could have as few as 3 bowl eligible teams or as many as 7 depending on how the final games work out.

Kizarvexis

(from another thread, but fits here too)

[GarySJ]

Well, let's revisit this topic in light of today's games. Here's the way I look at it:

There are 45 contracted bowl openings for the major conferences plus the MWC:

ACC - 6

Big East plus Notre Dame - 4

Big XII - 8

Big Ten - 7

Pac-10 - 7

SEC - 8

MWC - 3

BCS at large - 2

That's 45 total slots. Of these, 35 are safely accounted for:

5 - ACC (Va, VT, FSU, UM, Ga Tech)

3 - BE (WV, BC, Pitt, ND)

6 - Big Ten (Mich, Iowa, Wis, Pur, Oh St, Min)

6 - Big XII (Okla, Tex, TAMU, Tx Tech, Okla St, Colorado)

5 - Pac-10 (USC, Cal, Az St, UCLA, winner of Oregon-Oregon State)

7 - SEC (Aub, Ga, Tenn, SC, Fla, Bama, LSU

3 - MWC (Utah, New Mexico, Wyoming)

That leaves 10 as yet unfilled contracted bowl slots for these seven leagues. These are the teams that can still fill these, in order of likelihood:

1. North Carolina - must win at Duke

2. Connecticut - must beat Buffalo or Rutgers

3. Michigan State - must beat both Penn State and Hawaii. They play 12 games and must be 7-5.

4. Clemson - must beat South Carolina

5. Missouri/Iowa State winner - must win its other game (ISU is @ K-State, Missouri hosts Kansas) Note - ISU has previously used its I-AA exemption so they are not eligible at 6-5.

6. Nebraska - must beat Colorado

7. Northwestern - must beat both Illinois and Hawaii. They play 12 games and must be 7-5.

8. Arkansas - must beat both Miss State and LSU

9. Syracuse - must beat Boston College

10. Wake Forest/Maryland winner - must win its other game also (@Miami or @Va Tech)

11. Rutgers - must beat Navy and Connecticut

12. BYU - needs to beat Utah

And that's it. That should leave some contracted slots open. Navy will get one of these. But since the WAC and MWC will have no at-large teams (assuming no one can upset Boise or Utah), our competition for such a bid would be other C-USA teams, MAC teams, and Troy State.

The only thing that could end up doing us in here would be the **** you-must-take-a-7-win-team-over-a-6-win-team rule they stuck in after we got screwed over in 2002. Ironically, this may end up being OUR downfall if we end up 6-5, because the MAC already has four 7-game winners (Miami, NIU, BGSU, Toledo). Two have contracted slots, but the other two will be in the at-large pool and we'd have to get in line behind them. Akron can also get to 7 wins, as can Troy State from the Sun Belt. No one else can.

But, the above only matters if we get eligible and five other C-USA teams do also. If we beat Cincinnati, and win one other game, we probably have nothing to worry about (Tulane or UC would have to upset UofL, or TCU would have to beat USM, to be a co-qualifier).

If we lose to Cincy we could be in trouble. All C-USA slots would be filled, and no one else could invite us for certain until Dec 4.

Most likely non-CUSA possibility: the Big XII fails to send a team to the Tangerine Bowl, its #7 slot. Texas making the BCS at-large would help.

[smazza]

we certainly looked worthy last 1.5 games

let us see what happens when competition is upgraded

[Bishop of Bulltown]

The key for our bowl lies in Cincy I think. They need two wins to be eligible and if we beat them then you better well believe Louisville will destroy them, so that means they wouldn't be eligible right?? Wouldn't that mean we'd fit into that last spot assuming we become eligible?

[GarySJ]

If we beat Cincinnati, then the last CUSA bowl is forced to wait at least one more week for a contracted qualifier. USF would be one of two or more CUSA teams with 5 wins, and among those teams USF would have the most favorable schedule to get a 6th.

If Cincy beats USF, then C-USA will have its 5 qualifiers and its bowls can start inviting teams. They would not wait on the results of the Memphis and Pitt home games.

So I would say that USF needs to beat UC to have a shot at a CUSA bowl. Without it, we are hoping for a multitude of at-large openings. With it, we can start thinking about Hawaii.

[smazza]

wouldn't it be great if we win out and don't have to use 1aa win this year

we really control our own destiny so if we fail we have no one to blame but ourselves