Division I-A Bowl Game Analysis (Long)

[Jim Johnson]

Western Athletic Conference

Bowl Eligible (6 wins or more)

Boise State (5-0, 8-0) – The Broncos will finish undefeated, but won’t crack the BCS.  Remaining Games: @ San Jose State, vs La Tech, @ Nevada.

Texas-El Paso (4-1, 6-2) – Mike Price has gone a long way from ‘Bama to UTEP.  Ã¢â‚¬Å“It’s rolling, baby!† Remaining Games: vs Rice, vs SMU, @ Tulsa.

Need One Win (5 wins)

Nevada (3-2, 5-4) – The Wolfpack could go bowling, needing to win one of three.  Remaining Games: @ SMU, @ Fresno State, vs Boise State.

Fresno State (2-3, 5-3) – The Bulldogs are on their way to another bowl game.  Remaining Games: vs Hawaii, vs Nevada, @ San Jose State.

Need a Few Wins (less than 5 wins, less than 5 losses)

Hawaii (4-3, 4-4) – The Warriors may not make it to their own bowl game, needing to go .500 in their last 4 games.  Remaining Games: @ Fresno State, vs Idaho, vs Northwestern, vs Michigan State.

Almost Out of it (5 losses)

Louisiana Tech (3-2, 4-5) – The Bulldogs

Planning for 2005 (6 losses or more)

Rice (2-4, 3-6) – Will the Owls find it easier in Conference USA?

Southern Methodist (2-4, 2-7) – The Mustangs are slowly coming back from the dead. Very slowly.

San Jose State (1-4, 2-6) – The Spartans are hoping that adding Idaho, New Mexico State, and Utah State will push them out of the WAC basement.

Tulsa (1-4, 2-7) – At least the Golden Hurricane won’t have to play on Boise’s blue carpet any more.

Summary

Probable Bowl Eligible Teams

Boise State (Liberty)

UTEP (MPC Computers)

Fresno State (Silicon Valley)

Louisiana Tech (Hawaii)

[Jim Johnson]

Sun Belt Conference

Bowl Eligible (6 wins or more)

No teams currently have 6 wins.

Need One Win (5 wins)

North Texas (5-0, 5-4) – The Eagles have won 22 straight Sun Belt games.  They will continue this streak.  Remaining Games: vs Idaho, @ Arkansas State.

Troy (3-2, 5-4) – The Trojans look strong in their first season in a I-A conference – and might get a bowl slot if someone invites them.  Remaining Games: @ LA-Lafayette, vs Middle Tennessee State.

Need a Few Wins (less than 5 wins, less than 5 losses)

No teams with less than 5 wins or losses.

Almost Out of it (5 losses)

New Mexico State (3-2, 4-5) – The Lobos are in their last year in the Sun Belt, so they might do better in the WAC.  Remaining Games: @ Florida Atlantic, @ Utah State.

Louisiana-Monroe (3-2, 4-5) – The Indians are doing better than is expected for a Louisiana-directional school.  Remaining Games: @ Middle Tennessee State, vs LA-Lafayette.

Middle Tennessee State (3-3, 4-5) – The Blue Raiders are still in the middle of the Sun Belt pack.  Not much to brag about there.  Remaining Games: vs LA-Monroe, @ Troy.

Louisiana-Lafayette (2-3, 4-5) – The Ragin’ Cajuns didn’t do much ragin’ this season.  Next year they get FAU & FIU as conference foes, so it might get easier.  Remaining Games: vs Troy, @ LA-Monroe.

Planning for 2005 (6 losses or more)

Arkansas State (3-3, 3-7) – At least two more Florida schools will make for fun road trips for the Indians.

Idaho (2-4, 2-7) – Finally, the Boise State game will be a conference matchup for the Vandals.

Utah State (1-5, 2-8) – The Aggies get to play the Utes in the WAC next season, that’s something to shoot for.

Summary

Probable Bowl Eligible Teams

North Texas (New Orleans)

Troy

[Jim Johnson]

Open Slots & At Large Teams

Projected Open Slots: (5)

MPC Computers – Big 12 Slot (vs ACC)

Insight – Pac 10 Slot (vs Big E)

Vegas – Pac 10 Slot (vs MWC)

Silicon Valley – Pac 10 Slot (vs WAC)

Emerald – Pac 10 Slot (vs MWC)

Projected At-Large Teams: (9)

Akron

Bowling Green

Connecticut

Navy

Marshall

Northern Illinois

South Florida

Troy

Wyoming

Four teams will win 6 games this year, but won’t get to go to a bowl game.

[bulldad]

Reading the st pete times today scarred me a little.  They way they talked, even if we do win, bowls are worried that we will not travel well.  Case in point was inviting TCU to the Ft Worth bowl even if we have a better record because they will put more butts in the seats.  I can see their point but that would really suck. I don't know if we would travel well.  If you look at how we have traveled to all of our away games - I can understand how they would feel.

[Zonald]

Come on, our first bowl game, like we would not travel well?  It's a pretty big deal, no matter who we play, b/c it's our first time.  

[USFFan]

Jim,

Having just written one of these things myself, keep in mind that both Northwestern and Michigan State play 12 games this year, so finishing 6-6 puts them in a very precarious situation...

USFFan

[Jim Johnson]

Jim,

Having just written one of these things myself, keep in mind that both Northwestern and Michigan State play 12 games this year, so finishing 6-6 puts them in a very precarious situation...

USFFan

6-6 makes them bowl eligible, and Music City or Motor City will take a 6-6 Big Ten team over a mid-major team any day.  I think Northwestern gets there, but Michigan State won't.

[BullDoug]

**** good job Jim.  There hasta be a CF website out there that would pay for insight like this.  Only thing is IMO, USF will travel better than UAB or Cincinnatti for the Bull's first Bowl game.  One more thing, I believe the Cotton can invite the Irish every four yrs so the Irish could go to TX for a bowl & leave the Gator open.

[Kizarvexis]

6-6 makes them bowl eligible, and Music City or Motor City will take a 6-6 Big Ten team over a mid-major team any day.  I think Northwestern gets there, but Michigan State won't.

Don't forget the USF rule. A 7+ win non-tie-in team must be picked over a 6 win non-tie-in team for a bowl spot not filled by the established bowl tie-ins.

Kizarvexis

[Velcro]

good analysis, We have a long way to go before we actually can think about a bowl game.  Even ECU isn't a sure thing.