GEEEEZ, the A-Sun Conference = easy trip to NCAA Hoops (go figure)

[TyBull]

orlandosentinel.com/sports/orl-bkcstate2008feb20,0,2049926.story

OrlandoSentinel.com

State teams may get shut out of NCAAs

For the first time since 1997, Florida could be without a men's NCAA basketball tourney entry.

Dave Curtis

Sentinel Staff Writer

February 20, 2008

GAINESVILLE

UCF blew too many early upset chances, then lost at lowly Southern Methodist. FSU and Miami can't crack .500 during a down year in the Atlantic Coast Conference. Four February losses have left the Florida Gators' goal of a 10th consecutive NCAA Tournament growing harder to achieve.

College basketball is terrible right now in the Sunshine State, and here's the evidence: 3 1/2 weeks out from Selection Sunday and no in-state team looks like a comfortable bet to reach the field of 65. At least one team from Florida has reached the field in each tournament since 1997.

"That just goes to show you," Knights Coach Kirk Speraw said, "just how difficult it is to get into the NCAA Tournament."

The state's 11 NCAA Tournament-eligible teams, from USF in the Big East to Bethune-Cookman and Florida A&M in the Mid-Eastern Athletic, can each reach the NCAA by sweeping through their respective conference tournaments come March. But an at-large bid seems doubtful for any of the schools.

Miami is the lone Florida team ranked among the Top 50 in the Ratings Percentage Index, a criterion used by the NCAA Tournament selection committee to compare at-large candidates. But that ranking might not trump a shaky ACC record (4-6 heading into tonight's tilt with Duke), a weak non-conference schedule, and a damaging late December loss to Winthrop.

Coach Billy Donovan's Gators seemed a lock for such an invitation when the month began. But four Southeastern Conference losses, three coming by double digits, have placed UF's NCAA appearance streak in peril.

"We don't want to let that happen," said UF's Nick Calathes, a Lake Howell graduate. "We want to be the best team possible. But that's the main goal, to get in [the tournament]."

The state's best bet for a tournament team could rest in the Atlantic Sun Conference. This year's A-Sun Tournament could produce either Jacksonville or Stetson, which now sit second and fourth in the regular-season standings, as the league's automatic bid winner.

The Dolphins led the conference for much of the season's first half before two road losses earlier this month dropped them behind league leader and likely regular-season champ Belmont.

JU, like the Gators, features a young starting lineup with freshmen playing significant minutes. And despite their talent, those players' inexperience might prove the difference between snagging an at-large or winning a conference tournament title game.

"You can say whatever you want about AAU basketball and how much more competitive high schools are and how kids are playing more," Dolphins Coach Cliff Warren said. "But when you get to college, it's still a big difference over the course of a season."

Florida's youth -- five freshmen among nine scholarship players, including rookie guards Calathes and Jai Lucas playing better than 30 minutes per game -- has prompted Donovan to change his perspective.

During a Sunday tape session to review Saturday's 61-58 loss at Vanderbilt, the coach critiqued his team's poor execution down the stretch. But he also stopped the tape to show his freshmen how one stage in the final two minutes resembled a rebounding drill he said the Gators run through every day. Those lessons, he said, might be more important for his program than winning games and making the tournament.

"Sometimes, the correlation of saying, 'I know now why he talks to us about blockouts all the time,' " Donovan said Monday, "that can have a bigger impact on us getting better."

Another problem for the Florida schools is a lack of quality young players developing around the state. Local college coaches are unanimous in saying local high school and AAU ball is getting better. Yet despite UF and FSU boasting more in-state than out-of-state players, that pattern hasn't trickled to all the state schools.

Warren said when he inherited the Dolphins in 2005, the roster included just one in-state player. Now the Dolphins have five in-state players and nine from elsewhere. UCF's Speraw said he expects Central Florida to produce at least six major national recruits each year and 15-20 players who can play in Division I. And that, he said, isn't routine for the area.

"There are still an awful lot of good players here and throughout the state," he said. "But I don't know if the numbers are as deep as they have been."

Here are a few more numbers -- 330 Division I teams are eligible for this year's NCAA tournament. Sixty-five, or one short of 20 percent, will qualify.

And unless Florida gets back to January form, unless Miami starts an ACC win streak by beating the Blue Devils, unless Jacksonville wins the A-Sun, unless there's a Championship Week miracle, Florida's schools will be shut out.

"It would surprise me if that's how it played out," Warren said. "I don't think that's going to happen. There are a lot of games left. Somebody is going to get in."

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/sports/orl-bkcstate2008feb20,0,4496859,print.story

Dave Curtis can be reached at dcurtis@orlandosentinel.com.

Copyright © 2008, Orlando Sentinel

[crambone]

Nothing new.  Liberty gets into the NCAAs regularly, due to the Big South being what it is.

[813knight]

When UCF football was in the MAC, all other sports were ASUN, so the Basketball team made it to the dance a few times, even as a knight fan, it isn't fair. I specifically remember FSU having a real solid year in the ACC during one of those years and they got snubbed and ended up in the NIT when they probably deserved being in the tournament more than UCF.

-The tournament is exciting but the system is in no way perfect

[Triple B]

When UCF football was in the MAC, all other sports were ASUN, so the Basketball team made it to the dance a few times, even as a knight fan, it isn't fair. I specifically remember FSU having a real solid year in the ACC during one of those years and they got snubbed and ended up in the NIT when they probably deserved being in the tournament more than UCF.

-The tournament is exciting but the system is in no way perfect

It's not perfect but it wouldn't be March Madness without the little guys...

[Goldenbuc]

The little guys are why a lot people watch...lots of big timers have lost early to the little guys and that's the fun of it!  Then you have the little guys who dominate like Gonzaga and George Mason their conferences and play well in the tourney...I wouldn't say it was unfair...some of those "little" teams are pretty good and deserve a shot.

[Brad]

I'm all in favor of the little guys getting in, it makes the tourney fun.

[ucfknights04]

Anyone else notice

UCF, FSU, UF, Miami mentioned as "won't make it this year"

USF was in there too - but grouped with a different set of teams.....

[Triple B]

Anyone else notice

UCF, FSU, UF, Miami mentioned as "won't make it this year"

USF was in there too - but grouped with a different set of teams.....

Hmmm, could that be because it was an Orlando paper? If that's a Tampa paper the grouping would probably have been different...