MSG Scenario - Cusp of Elimination

[Doc]

As if it couldn't get any bleaker, the Providence victory over WVU tonight all

but shut the door on our flickering hope of making it to the conference tournament.  Of course, USF must win all three remaining games (unlikely enough in itself) and have one of the following:

a) UConn loses all four games -- @ RU, UL, Nova, @ GU

If UConn wins at least one more game, we need Villanova to LOSE all three, and Rutgers to WIN all three.  Finish with a three-way tie (USF, NOVA, RU), and we're good.  Throw in either UConn or St. John's for a four-way tie at 6-10, and we're still good.  Throw in both for a five-way tie, and we're out.

A UConn win at Rutgers Wednesday would eliminate both scenarios and it would be mercifully over, at least unofficially by my count.

[South_Florida_Flip]

That's much to much to ask for.

[ksquire]

As if it couldn't get any bleaker, the Providence victory over WVU tonight all

but shut the door on our flickering hope of making it to the conference tournament.  Of course, USF must win all three remaining games (unlikely enough in itself) and have one of the following:

a) UConn loses all four games -- @ RU, UL, Nova, @ GU

If UConn wins at least one more game, we need Villanova to LOSE all three, and Rutgers to WIN all three.  Finish with a three-way tie (USF, NOVA, RU), and we're good.  Throw in either UConn or St. John's for a four-way tie at 6-10, and we're still good.  Throw in both for a five-way tie, and we're out.

A UConn win at Rutgers Wednesday would eliminate both scenarios and it would be mercifully over, at least unofficially by my count.

Unfortunately this is not football, and in the words of lotsofbull "UConn will destroy Rutgers"

[Triple B]

I'm waiting for Jim's official death knell.   8-)

[Herman_Momart]

I think we can all agree this was once again a very disappointing season.  

A big thank you to Melvin Buckley and Mchugh Mattis for their services, their shoes will not be replaced easily.

Hopefully next year we will have a new coach and a new vision, but we will wait and see.  March sadness starts on Thursday.    

[Herman_Momart]

As if it couldn't get any bleaker, the Providence victory over WVU tonight all

but shut the door on our flickering hope of making it to the conference tournament.  Of course, USF must win all three remaining games (unlikely enough in itself) and have one of the following:

a) UConn loses all four games -- @ RU, UL, Nova, @ GU

If UConn wins at least one more game, we need Villanova to LOSE all three, and Rutgers to WIN all three.  Finish with a three-way tie (USF, NOVA, RU), and we're good.  Throw in either UConn or St. John's for a four-way tie at 6-10, and we're still good.  Throw in both for a five-way tie, and we're out.

A UConn win at Rutgers Wednesday would eliminate both scenarios and it would be mercifully over, at least unofficially by my count.

Thats it?  Knowing our program nad Rutgers winning all three, we so got this.

[Guest]

I'm waiting for Jim's official death knell.   8-)

Alrighty then...

---

Remaining games

15 Rutgers (3-10) - vs U Conn, @ Nova, vs Notre Dame

14 USF (3-10) - @ Seton Hall, Prov, @ DePaul

13 Seton Hall (3-10)  - vs USF, @ Cincy, @ Louisville

12 Connecticut (5-7) - @ Rutgers, vs Louisville, vs Nova, @ G'town

11 St. Johns (6-8) - @ Louisville, vs Providence

10 Villanova (6-7) - vs Rutgers, @ U Conn, vs Syracuse

---

There is only ONE scenario that gets USF to MSG:

USF wins all three games, UConn loses all four games

If U Conn wins one game - USF is mathematically eliminated from the tournament:

1) If USF, U Conn, St John's, & Nova all finish 6-10 ... then USF gets 13th place

U Conn gets 10th place because they would be 3-0 against the other 3 teams, Nova gets 11th place because of a better record against Georgetown (1-1 vs 0-1 & 0-1), St John's would get the 12th place because of the head-to-head tie breaker against USF

2) If USF, Nova, & St. John's finish 6-10 ... then USF gets 13th place

Nova would get 11th place by virtue of a better record against Georgetown, St John's would get the 12th place because of the head-to-head tie breaker against USF  (Note the three tams would tie for 11th place as U Conn would be 10th; if the teams finish ahead of U Conn, then U Conn lost all games - see above)

3) If USF, U Conn, & St. John's finish 6-10 ... then USF gets 13th place

U Conn gets 11th place because they would be 2-0 against the other 2 teams, St John's would get the 12th place because of the head-to-head tie breaker against USF (Nova would be in 10th place)

4) If USF, U Conn, & Nova finish 6-10 ... then USF gets 13th place

U Conn gets 11th place because they would be 2-0 against the other 2 teams, Nova would get 12th place by virtue of a better record against Georgetown (SJU would be in 10th place)

If you add Rutgers to any of the above scenarios, RU would get 14th place no matter what, by virtue of the head to head against USF (RU lost SJU, U Conn, & USF). It is impossible for both USF and Seton Hall to be 6-10.

NOTE: The Big East tie breaking procedure (PDF) only determines the seed - then you reshuffle and use the tie breaker rules for the remaining tied teams.  If four teams are tied for 10th, you find which one is first of the four, then you see who is first of three for 11th, and first of two for 12th.

[Guest]

As if it couldn't get any bleaker, the Providence victory over WVU tonight all

but shut the door on our flickering hope of making it to the conference tournament.  Of course, USF must win all three remaining games (unlikely enough in itself) and have one of the following:

a) UConn loses all four games -- @ RU, UL, Nova, @ GU

If UConn wins at least one more game, we need Villanova to LOSE all three, and Rutgers to WIN all three.  Finish with a three-way tie (USF, NOVA, RU), and we're good.  Throw in either UConn or St. John's for a four-way tie at 6-10, and we're still good.  Throw in both for a five-way tie, and we're out.

A UConn win at Rutgers Wednesday would eliminate both scenarios and it would be mercifully over, at least unofficially by my count.

Your "" scenario is off a bit... if only USF, Nova, and RU are 6-10 ... then all 3 are tied for 12th place (as SJU and U Conn would be ahead of them.)  That means Nova goes to MSG and USF and RU stay home.  Nothing changes if you add one or two more teams... a five way tie for 10th or a four way tie for 11th still leaves two teams (USF and RU) on the outside.

Sorry.

[smazza]

as i predicted

usf ,because of lack of depth,finished season poorly

[Doc]

My understanding is that in a three-way tie, you would take best-record amongst the tied teams, regardless of number of games played in the group.  If it were USF-RU-NOVA, I think it would have gone: USF (1-0), RU (1-1), NOVA (0-1).  And when one team moves on, you still rank teams in order of the original "mini-conference" record.  It's certainly possible that I misunderstood the procedures. . .

In any case, UConn won and Rutgers lost, so it officially comes to an end, no matter how you slice it.  Very disappointing.