what does Rivals or Scout really know?

[Joe]

Its a crap shoot, just look at the RB at UF, Wynn was supposed to be one the top five RBs in the nation coming out and he has not played like a top RB.  For every case of a top recruit living up the hype there are at least five that did not.

That is probably the most inacurate thing I've heard on here. The majority of the hyped guys do work out maybe not a superstars, but I guarantee Florida coaches are praying Wynn can suit up this weekend because he is their most effective back. (tore up Tennessee)

2004 Top 10:

1 Adrian Peterson - Probably the most complete RB in the nation

2 Theodore Ginn, Jr. - #1 WR for the #1 team

3 Early Doucet - #1 WR for LSU

4 Rhett Bomar - Showed signs of being great last year then the car thing.

5 Keith Rivers - Pac 10 Player of teh Week a few weeks ago

6 Willie Williams - Outside problems again

7 Brandon Miller - Starting DE at UGA

8 Derrick Harvey - Starting DE/DT at UF

9 Jeff Schweiger Jr. - Injured Last year, struggling to recover

10 Xavier Lee - Any day now he'll be the starting QB at FSU

Other names in the top 20 that most fans would know are Anthony Morelli, Chad Henne, Fred Davis.

There are maybe 10% that don't work out...not your absorbant 1 to 5

[Kyle]

Also consider this:

These services usually have a very select group of guys doing the evaluations for the entire nation. Sometimes the publishers can give a guy a bit of a boost, but for the most part dont have much say in the rankings.

I think the local publisher's opinions on a prospect is a better indicator of what kind of player they'll be than the rating alone...these guys are around the program alot and can pick up on this stuff pretty well.

[Bullpride08]

Its a crap shoot, just look at the RB at UF, Wynn was supposed to be one the top five RBs in the nation coming out and he has not played like a top RB.  For every case of a top recruit living up the hype there are at least five that did not.

That is probably the most inacurate thing I've heard on here. The majority of the hyped guys do work out maybe not a superstars, but I guarantee Florida coaches are praying Wynn can suit up this weekend because he is their most effective back. (tore up Tennessee)

2004 Top 10:

1 Adrian Peterson - Probably the most complete RB in the nation

2 Theodore Ginn, Jr. - #1 WR for the #1 team

3 Early Doucet - #1 WR for LSU

4 Rhett Bomar - Showed signs of being great last year then the car thing.

5 Keith Rivers - Pac 10 Player of teh Week a few weeks ago

6 Willie Williams - Outside problems again

7 Brandon Miller - Starting DE at UGA

8 Derrick Harvey - Starting DE/DT at UF

9 Jeff Schweiger Jr. - Injured Last year, struggling to recover

10 Xavier Lee - Any day now he'll be the starting QB at FSU

Other names in the top 20 that most fans would know are Anthony Morelli, Chad Henne, Fred Davis.

There are maybe 10% that don't work out...not your absorbant 1 to 5

Joe, those kids have the "DUH" factor.  Rivals didn't 'discover' them and most were great when they were frosh making stuff like the SI Weekly editions....Those kids are widely known, and talked about before rivals or scout even begin ranking players.

The question, no rather validity in those sites lies in how well they discover hidden gems, and rate guys that really have immense potential but lack the big school commitment.  I'd say both are 50/50 and in deed it's a crap shoot with either.  I know plenty of people at both sites, been following recruiting for 15 years, and even they will admit it's a crap shoot.  They concentrate on the big schools, because that's where 85% of the revenue is derived from, and the rest are just products of the system.  If they miss an Aaron Harris why do they care, the big schools were not intently chasing so it doesn't affect their bottom line, if Aaron turns out to be great, better then say Aaron Jones, who cares by then his star ranking will be but a distant memory, but as long as Aaron Jones was considering FSU, UM, and UF, and over 15,000 active subscribers were hinging on that kid's every word then that's who they'll worry about, and who they'll follow, and who they'll rank higher just because of the hype.  Who cares is 600 USF subscribers are hinging on Aaron Harris' word, that doesn't bring home the bacon.

In this instance you step away from the hype, and then compare.  Aaron Harris, a kid that made 3A first team all-state, a kid that was among some elite kids in 3A to get that distinction, a kid that beat out some of them to get it.  He was defensive MVP for the county, 12 sacks, 15 tfl, 80 tackles for a DE/DT/OLB is some impressive stuff.  Well respected by my friend up in Leesburg, who's running the local sports rag.  Aaron did it against the best schools, two other publications list him in the top 100 of FL, not rivals or scout.  Played in FL all-star game and had a sack, and 2 tfl....  Take away the scout, and rival hype and you see the quality player he is, and had better stats then many of the players signed by the big 3 at his position.  If they had hopped on his hype, instead of say Steven Wesley's, he would have been four star and Wesley a two star at USF (he was heavy on USF until the big three jumped in).

[Bull Dozer]

It's no secret that recruiting is an inexact science.  These are 17 & 18 year old kids so pretty much anything can happen as far as physical development or mental development.  The people at rivals/scout etc rate the kids on their potential and their percieved "ceilings" and there are many things that can prevent a kid from getting there.  Some kids just dont physically continue to develop at as a rapid pace in college, some kids get in trouble at school or with the coach, some kids get stuck behind another player in their recruiting class, others dont have the work ethic to develop into a good college player and are used to getting by on pure athletic talent.  Being a good or great college football player takes alot more work and intelligence than being good in high school where one can get by with just pure athletic talent and just being a man among boys.  But when you get into D1A football in a major conference everyone is a good-great player by high school standards so the bar is raised and its up to the player and their genetics to take them to that next level. theres alot of variables in how a player develops at the college level so for the most part i think the scouts do a good job for these sites/publications.  If you really want to see how much potential how good a recruit really is and you understand the nuiances and technical aspect of the position they play go see them in person.  I usually try to attend as many high school games where major prospects are as possible (but i have been slacking this year) to see what i think of them.  I watched tebow for his last couple years in high school and i knew from the first game i saw him we would/will be something very special.  I want to make it out to armwood to see that DL we got a verbal from and possibly even road trip to see Voss in person as well as make the short trek to lakeland a couple of times to see all the top notch players they have this year.  

[Joe]

Bien, I know they are in the "Duh" factor, instead of always trying to upstage me, please read what I was responding to.

Bullwark stated that for every 1 of the hyped recruits, 5 of the the hyped recruits end up not living up to the hype. Dyshawn Wynn was the second rated back coming out of HS (#2 behind Clarett) I was pointing out that the hyped recruits (or "duh" recruits) normally pan out, there are cases where they don't however.Nor did I ever claim that they found those kids as diamonds in the rough

I mentioned earlier that the smaller guys are going to get less pub and also stated that you shouldn't rely soley on the sites because there are several great players outside of it.

[BullBlood]

Nicholas--2 stars

Mofitt--2 stars

Trae Williams--2stars

Slaton--3 star "athlete" and not ranked!

The schools with the smaller numbers of subscribers are always going to be overlooked.  I wouldn't put much stock in the rankings, but the stats, all-states, and all-star games seem to be just as important.

The 5 stars are easy to rank/find, but separating the 2s, 3s, and 4s is where it gets tough with so many kids spread out all across the country.

[twillybull]

Recruiting rankings are Bull****.  

They pay attention to the kids that the "Big" colleges are recruiting.  There is no way to come up with an accurate ranking of High School kids, without scouts at every game in the nation on Friday night.  Hell even getting scouts to 1/2 or 1/4 of those games would take a small army.  That's where college scouting comes in, they pay attention and rank kids based on which college is looking at them / recruiting them.

[Joe]

Slaton was sought after by a number of big name schools (Ohio State, BC, Wisconsin, Maryland, and Va Tech). His Grades scared most those schools away.

They don't always pump a guy's rating up because he's looking at a big (or number of) big schools. However they will focus more attention on him, because it is where the profits are based.

An example would be Justin Grant...Florida commit...recruited by FSU, Miami, Auburn, Georgia....He's only a 2 star or Foswhitt Whittacker Texas commit...recruit also by Notre Dame, Texas A&M and FSU...rated 3 stars

The difference is they'll get more pub than a 2/3 star committing to USF because more people on their service care about those guys (because they committed to bigger schools, than Claude Davis (who committed to USF)

[Bullpride08]

Bien, I know they are in the "Duh" factor, instead of always trying to upstage me, please read what I was responding to.

Bullwark stated that for every 1 of the hyped recruits, 5 of the the hyped recruits end up not living up to the hype. Dyshawn Wynn was the second rated back coming out of HS (#2 behind Clarett) I was pointing out that the hyped recruits (or "duh" recruits) normally pan out, there are cases where they don't however.Nor did I ever claim that they found those kids as diamonds in the rough

I mentioned earlier that the smaller guys are going to get less pub and also stated that you shouldn't rely soley on the sites because there are several great players outside of it.

How can anyone upstage you when you profess to know everything?  Just becuase someone has similar knowledge or tangible facts that's upstaging?  You just laid out a few names of players, and I don't necessarily agree those kids are sure things or even deserved their top 10 ranking, but they are "DUH" players just because rivals and scout ranked those guys 1-20 doesn't mean crap, so did everyone in America for the most part.  Those guys are generally the same **** guys scout picked in the top 10.

You want to know generally how much of a crap shoot it is with scout and rivals.  The best QB in the 2004 class is Brian Brohm, no one can come close to matching his stats or ability when healthy.  Rivals had him rated as the 79th best player in the top 100, seven other QB's were rated ahead of him, and only Chad Henne really has had a career that can rival, but Brohm, when healthy no one including the NFL scouts doubt his ability.

This is odd because most knew despite UT, and ND pushing hard that Brian was going Louisville.  Did they drop his ranking because of it?  USA Today, Tom Lemming (who makes me puke), and countless others that actually do talent eval had Brian listed as the #1 QB.  Hell USA Today made him the POY.  

Here's another one that makes you go HUH!  Calvin Johnson was rated as the 37th best player by rivals, at least scout (and I've always believed Jaime and crew have had a slightly better read on the talent side, and I think rivals is more about the pump and revenue), they had Calvin Johnson rated as the 14th best player in 2004, with Fred Davis and Early Doucet as the only receivers ahead of him.  I can live with that although Calvin will probably be the #1 pick in this year's draft.

Slaton was never offered by OSU, he was a Maryland commit but they pulled his schollie.

[Joe]

Bien,

I have never professed to know everything. In fact I’ve disclaimed being a know it all and I don’t think I was stating anything in my previous posts that even suggests me saying I am a know it all. I used hard facts to show that hyped players do live up somewhat. I wasn’t trying to say that those rankings are 100% correct or that they were the only way to judge players. Quit acting like I even suggested that. I know it was hard for you to comprehend, but I was responding to Tybull saying that the majority of the most hyped players on Rivals and Scout don’t work out (The most hyped being their top 10-20 players).

Once again you completely ignored everything I said. I KNOW it’s a crapshoot, I KNOW some players are rated low that shouldn’t be. I KNOW that some schools are favored over others. I said earlier recruiting projections are never going to be 100% right.

The Slaton comment says everything. I never said the guy was offered by Ohio State…he was sought after, and as I mentioned grades shyed Ohio State away from him. He did however take an unofficial visit and was recruited by both the football and track team at Ohio State. Therefore he was sought after.

If your going to try and tell me I’m a know it all go look in the mirror. You constantly attack me and things I say yet you come back with “Kansas has a prolific offense under Mangino, when it has been the worst of the BCS schools since his arrival).