Conference realignment "Rumors" "tweets" "etc"

[Eric Ruby]

1 hour ago, Bull Daly said:

The AAC is life boats from the sunken ship know as Big East football. The Big 12 is a sinking ship that will soon need lifeboats aka Big East 2.0

Big12 will be the lifeboat for the PAC12. Next summer will be very interesting. That’s when the Big12 media rights negotiations begin. 

[Jim Johnson]

10 hours ago, Eric Ruby said:

Attorneys can do nothing to break it. It was sighed by all members to stay true until 2036. There are no loopholes.

First, the Grant of Rights just a contract... and any contract can always be renegotiated.  For example, if Clemson offered $2 billion to get out, the rest of the conference would agree.  At the same time, if Clemson offered $200, the rest of the schools would laugh.  So the issue is finding the right number for the other schools to agree and whether Clemson, FSU, UNC, etc could actually afford that number.  Some have said that it could be $500 million (or more), which is obviously not affordable.

 

20 minutes ago, Eric Ruby said:

Adding schools does not change the GoR.

Second, the Grant of Rights applies to games in the "ESPN Agreement" if the ACC signs a new agreement, it could be claimed (in court) the GoR no longer applies because it was under the "old" agreement.  Adding schools would trigger a possible negotiation for a new agreement.

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Both of these are quite unlikely to happen... but that doesn't mean they can't happen.

[Eric Ruby]

15 minutes ago, Jim Johnson said:

First, the Grant of Rights just a contract... and any contract can always be renegotiated.  For example, if Clemson offered $2 billion to get out, the rest of the conference would agree.  At the same time, if Clemson offered $200, the rest of the schools would laugh.  So the issue is finding the right number for the other schools to agree and whether Clemson, FSU, UNC, etc could actually afford that number.  Some have said that it could be $500 million (or more), which is obviously not affordable.

 

Second, the Grant of Rights applies to games in the "ESPN Agreement" if the ACC signs a new agreement, it could be claimed (in court) the GoR no longer applies because it was under the "old" agreement.  Adding schools would trigger a possible negotiation for a new agreement.

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Both of these are quite unlikely to happen... but that doesn't mean they can't happen.

The ACC GoR is the same length as the ACC ESPN contract, but the GoR and the ESPN TV contract are two separate contracts. They’re not one in the same or connected. The GoR is an ACC agreement alone. So any new teams would just have to sign on to that very same GoR until 2036, no matter what could be renegotiated with ESPN. The ACC wouldn’t risk any chance to causing anything that could allow schools out and send them all off, anyhow. They’ll hold tight. Texas and Oklahoma signed a 14 year Big 12 GoR just like this one. That Big 12 GoR ends in 2025. Texas and Oklahoma with all that Texas $$ are waiting that full 14 years to join the SEC in 2025. 

 

Edited August 6, 2022 by Eric Ruby

[Eric Ruby]

I actually think the Big 12 will be USF’s landing spot, even if the Big12 lands some PAC12 schools. The alumni base combined and market combo of Orlando/Tampa is something the Big12 seriously researched. The attention has been on the PAC12 vs Big12. But there’s TV value with USF/UCF that cannot be ignored by TV. UCF is alone on an island and more east coast games are definitely a big plus. It doesn’t hurt having a passionate rivalry game on the docket either. I don’t know when, but USF could possibly be invited next summer and start playing by the 2025 season. Brett Yormark will be working with the networks big time throughout the year and working on a new deal next summer. If USF gets in the Big12, you hope the ACC GoR lasts thru 2036. Buys time to grow in a P5 or P4 or whatever it’ll be, with FSU and Miami basically making the same $$. When 2036 comes, it will be a crazy time. Way more crazy than even now.

Edited August 6, 2022 by Eric Ruby

[Jim Johnson]

3 hours ago, Eric Ruby said:

The ACC GoR is the same length as the ACC ESPN contract, but the GoR and the ESPN TV contract are two separate contracts. They’re not one in the same or connected. The GoR is an ACC agreement alone. So any new teams would just have to sign on to that very same GoR until 2036, no matter what could be renegotiated with ESPN. The ACC wouldn’t risk any chance to causing anything that could allow schools out and send them all off, anyhow. They’ll hold tight. Texas and Oklahoma signed a 14 year Big 12 GoR just like this one. That Big 12 GoR ends in 2025. Texas and Oklahoma with all that Texas $$ are waiting that full 14 years to join the SEC in 2025. 

 

They are ABSOLUTELY connected: https://wwwcache.wralsportsfan.com/asset/colleges/ncsu/2022/07/05/20361238/ACC-Grant-of-Rights-1-DMID1-5vgd1w2if.pdf

"Each of the Member Institutions hereby (a) irrevocably and exclusively grants to the Conference during the Term (as defined below) all rights (the "Rights") necessary for the Conference to perform the contractual obligations of the Conference expressly set forth in the ESPN Agreement . . . "

If you read the rest of the document, it continues to state the Grant of Rights pertains only to those elements that are part of the ACC's contract with ESPN.

For example -- the ACC doesn't sponsor Beach Volleyball, but Florida State offers it as a sport.  The Grant of Rights does not apply to FSU's Beach Volleyball games.  The same is true for Boston College hockey.  The Pitt gymnastics team.  Now, I know these sports are not the money sports -- but the rights to televise these sports are not granted to the ACC as part of the Grant of Rights, because the GoR only applies to the ESPN Agreement.

 

Edited August 6, 2022 by Jim Johnson

[Cubanbull]

4 hours ago, Eric Ruby said:

Adding schools does not change the GoR. The new schools would have to sign the GoR that ends in 2036, as well. Adding schools does not mean more revenue, it would mean less. Adding Oregon or Washington wouldn’t even add revenue. They’re looking at barely $25 mil yr in the PAC. They’re stuck and will just have to wait all the way until 2036, no matter how pissed off it makes certain teams that want out. 

Notice that I NEVER said it would change the GOR. The GOR means they are stuck together until 2036. As I said that means that the SEC and BigTen would probably be making twice what the ACC makes. That is not acceptable to the Clemson’s and FSU’s. Adding schools means that the tv value contract gets re-visited, the fact is that the ACC value is undervalued as of today, so that would be where they would receive the extra value not necessarily from the additions. Is like ucf and the other three now going to Big12 but their value goes from 7 million to 30 million each.

We will see what happens but the facts are that the GOR will keep them together until 2036, but they need to re- visit contract and only way to do this is by adding schools

[Eric Ruby]

21 minutes ago, Jim Johnson said:

They are ABSOLUTELY connected: https://wwwcache.wralsportsfan.com/asset/colleges/ncsu/2022/07/05/20361238/ACC-Grant-of-Rights-1-DMID1-5vgd1w2if.pdf

"Each of the Member Institutions hereby (a) irrevocably and exclusively grants to the Conference during the Term (as defined below) all rights (the "Rights") necessary for the Conference to perform the contractual obligations of the Conference expressly set forth in the ESPN Agreement . . . "

If you read the rest of the document, it continues to state the Grant of Rights pertains only to those elements that are part of the ACC's contract with ESPN.

For example -- the ACC doesn't sponsor Beach Volleyball, but Florida State offers it as a sport.  The Grant of Rights does not apply to FSU's Beach Volleyball games.  The same is true for Boston College hockey.  The Pitt gymnastics team.  Now, I know these sports are not the money sports -- but the rights to televise these sports are not granted to the ACC as part of the Grant of Rights, because the GoR only applies to the ESPN Agreement.

 

The GoR coincides with the time frame of the ESPN contract. The Grant of Rights itself has no buyout. It just states that the ACC owns the media rights for whatever sports ESPN is currently covering for each school until 2036. For instance, if FSU went to the Big10 under a FOX deal, any $$ that would go to FSU would go to the ACC to be split between the remaining members. The ESPN TV contract does have a buyout. Two separate contracts. Two separate penalties. This is a great breakdown of the GoR from ESPN’s Andrea Adelson. Open the tweet and read her thread.

https://twitter.com/aadelsonespn/status/1545437213214838785?s=21&t=LgQeEcIowN5GPBnj1cuWRA

[puc86]

38 minutes ago, Eric Ruby said:

The GoR coincides with the time frame of the ESPN contract. The Grant of Rights itself has no buyout. It just states that the ACC owns the media rights for whatever sports ESPN is currently covering for each school until 2036. For instance, if FSU went to the Big10 under a FOX deal, any $$ that would go to FSU would go to the ACC to be split between the remaining members. The ESPN TV contract does have a buyout. Two separate contracts. Two separate penalties. This is a great breakdown of the GoR from ESPN’s Andrea Adelson. Open the tweet and read her thread.

https://twitter.com/aadelsonespn/status/1545437213214838785?s=21&t=LgQeEcIowN5GPBnj1cuWRA

A few problems with your interpretation: 1) without the second contract the schools are receiving exactly nothing which would make it a not valid contract, the only consideration on that side is the ESPN contract 2) it specifically calls out that the only things that it covers are the things of that specific named and dated contract and anything outside of it is not included , if the contract doesn’t exist anymore there is nothing covered by it anymore 3) If anyone new is added the teams have not made any reciprocal agreements with them so they would either unfairly not be bound or you would need everyone to agree again to bind themselves to them 4) the last time the espn agreement was amended the GOR was amended which certainly speaks to that most people in the contract believe a new espn contract requires a new GOR.

[FanFromAfar]

6 hours ago, Eric Ruby said:

That’s not how the GoR works. FSU and Clemson would get $0 until 2036 if they left. They’re not going to take $0 just to beef up their schedule. ESPN would hate that too. Its just that TV couldn’t air their home games. Not to mention they’d have to pay like $500 million on top of the loss of rights. It’s not one or the other. All ACC teams are stuck until 2036. As for the PAC 12, they’re toast by 2024. That’s when their GoR is expired and nobody is going to want to sign a new PAC12 GoR and are getting lowballed from ESPN right now, scrambling to find a Tv deal. Big 12 will land new members from the PAC. I think by 2025 there will no longer be a P5. It will be a P4. New CFB Playoff starts in 2026. But nobody knows who will be involved with that or how. The current format and committee expire in 2025. So right now, the CFP format and leadership does not exist in any form as of 2026. For all we know, B1G/SEC can try to run it themselves and take all the money. But I don’t see that happening. I think it’ll be expanded to 12 games include more at large opportunities. P4 will be ACC, SEC, Big12 and B1G until 2036. After 2036, all hell breaks loose.

Disagree, the home game designation is how most GORs work. And likely the ACC's too.

You're suggesting the ACC has rights to all FSU away games right now? I have not heard that. So when FSU plays at UF, FSU has the rights to that game? Pretty easy to manufacture those ACC schools not being in the SEC, just having an SEC schedule!

 

Form Pete Thamel of ESPN:

By extending their grant of rights in 2016, ACC schools did what the legal phrase says: They granted the rights to all their home games to the ACC until the league's television contract with ESPN expires in 2036. After granting them, schools are finding complications in the legal quagmire of the exploration of getting them back.

First, any lawyer that tells you a contract is ironclad and there is no risk in court, is foolish. There is no such thing as settled law. 

Second, going around the GOR is not the same as challenging it. Road games for example. There are always battle of attrition, madman tactics, in which the 4-5 P2 hopefuls suddenly have a COVID season and let the conference know they deem it best to sit out all ACC games. They have $800 million to borrow against, but the others? They have no windfall coming. In essence, all the P2 hopefuls need to do is shift the risk of costs- their plan does not need to be 100% certain of success, just risky enough that the risk averse leftovers take a reasonable offer. 

Third, and likely the most important, is the ACC leftovers are just as much wanting to get a settlement out of the GOR. A school like BC on a death march with 2016 era TV rights to the American conference in 2036 is extracting no value from the GOR. Realignment value or monetary value. It would be complete negligence by their leadership. Their leverage to get accommodations due to the GOR goes down every year. The best they can do in court in trying to uphold the GOR is "not lose" in realignment, with a court room victory simply meaning the ACC forced back together, with the leftovers in an even weaker position, because now ESPN has little ability to prepare for the exit of schools come 2036.

 

Say 4 schools move to SEC. What would happen is ESPN would air the SEC games at the former ACC schools, and the ACC would want that revenue. 

And that revenue would will be settled, or FSU would never play at "home". The utility exchanged by FSU in the settlement likely to be based in whatever costs FSU incurs by playing neutral site games for home games. If that costs the former ACC schools $60-$80 million/year, then the remaining schools likely get that on some type of amortization, plus some exit fees. Likely also getting ESPN to refresh their TV deal to current TV rights market if it is advantageous, and potentially getting ESPN to execute a bait and switch in building the ACC as the 3rd super conference. So the leftovers likely are looking at millions more than their ACC deal, plus a better position to make the eventual 3rd super conference. Or they could live out the GOR for less, and some become unwanted free agents. 

 

[Bull Matrix]

6 hours ago, Eric Ruby said:

Big12 will be the lifeboat for the PAC12. Next summer will be very interesting. That’s when the Big12 media rights negotiations begin. 

Since when has the big 12 been able to convince any P4 to join their sinking ship?