For USF to go Bowling

[JoeB]

Here is a breakdown of the USF schedule with Must Wins, Winnable Games, and Probable Losses.  I believe USF can finish anywhere between 5-6 to 8-3 depending on what happens in those 3 crucial Winnable games.

at Penn State-  Certainly a Winnable game depending which Julmiste and defense show up.  Pounding Hall will help keep the clock rolling and should make for a low scoring game.

FAMU-  Must Win

UCF-  Must Win

Louisville-  Loss.  They are the class of the Big East this season.

at Miami-  Loss.  Not the Miami of old, but still Miami.

at Pitt-  Loss.  Tremendous offensive potential, with a defense to match.

West Virginia-  Winnable Game.  Two things are in USF's favor in this one.  One it is a home game and two it could be a letdown week after WVU plays UofL the week before.  Plus they lost their starting QB, their highest Rusher, and leading receiver.

at Rutgers-  Must Win.  This will be tougher than it sounds considering RU returns its three best weapons on offense (QB, RB, and WR).  But if USF plans on playing in December, this has to be a win.  Also, RU has to play Louisville the following week only 5 days later.

at Syracuse-  Winnable Game.  They have a similiar QB problem like USF, similar RB like USF, and similar question marks around the whole team.  Plus maybe they are looking ahead to Notre Dame the following week.

Cincinnati-  Must Win at home.

UConn-  Must Win.  Another tough test, but if USF wants to compete with the Big Boys of the conference, they must win tough road games.  QB Dan Orlovsky is gone, but the Huskies are still explosive on the ground.

I'd like to hear what some other Bulls fans thoughts are about the schedule and my takes.

   

[beastiebull]

Good analysis however I don't think we have a snowball's chance vs. PSU or WVU, regardless of their situations.  

Rutgers, Cuse,  and UCONN will be just as tough if not tougher than half the teams we lost to last season.  

We will be better than last year, but not enough to win those 5 games.  Miami is a given L.  5-6 is our best case scenario.  

[JoeB]

5-6 or 6-5 is truly where I think they will finish, but I'm hoping I'll see a better team on the field this year.  I agree with you about RU, 'Cuse, and UConn being tough, but these are teams we have to beat or we will be cellar dwellars with the Bearcats.  West Virginia probably is a loss, but they did lose some key people.  

[Guest]

I'd like to hear what some other Bulls fans thoughts are about the schedule and my takes.

Okay, JoeB...

Here is my take...

Penn State

The Nittany Lion defense will be tough for USF.  However, as the first game of the season, it might be possible to move the ball in the first half.  The Penn State defense will come together sometime during the game -- the only question will be which half.  If USF can score on its first few possessions (even field goals), have no turnovers during the first half, and take the ball away from the Penn State offense at least once, then USF has a chance.  The Penn State offense will be about the same as the USF offense, but the USF defense won't be quite as good as it's counterpart. Prediction: Penn State 17 -- USF 13 (0-1, 0-0)

FAMU

A I-AA team facing a lot of off the field problems, including a new coach.  This should be a good home opener for the USF offense... a good chance for the backups to get a lot of reps.  Don't use this game as a benchmark for the rest of the season. Prediction: USF 46 -- FAMU 24 (1-1, 0-0)

UCF

The Knights will come in losers of 16 straight games, their last win on Oct, 25 2003 against Central Michigan. (Assuming that they don't win their opener at South carolina).  They are still rebuilding with O'Leary, and may win a few games in 2005, thanks to a move to C-USA.  But  this game won't be one of them. Prediction: USF 30 -- UCF 21 (2-1, 0-0)

Lousiville

This will be the highest ranked team to ever visit Raymond James stadium (#19 TCU on Oct 10, 2003).  They bring in the best offense in the Big East and a solid defense.  Still, USF beat a good Louisville team in 2003 and there is the ambiance of playing the first ever Big East game.  It will be a challenge, but I am giving this one to the Cards. Prediction: Louisville 37 -- USF 34 OT (2-2, 0-1)

Miami

The Hurricane's have a new QB... but this is Miami so Wright is better than just about any college QB in the nation.  They have athletes at just about every position. The Bulls will keep it close at first, just like Alabama, mostly because the Hurricanes won't respect them -- and if they can hold onto the ball, and take it away from Miami, they might have a chance.  But let's be real. Miami will run away with this in the end. Prediction: Miami 41 -- USF 17 (2-3, 0-1)

Pittsburgh

The Panthers came to USF looking to avenge the 2001 beating USF gave them... and they did win... but it wasn't quite that satisfying.  Now they face USF in the Bulls' first Big East road game... another Panther win might help ease the pain of losing their first game in their new home.  Prediction: Pitt 45 -- USF 24 (2-4, 0-2)

West Virginia

Homecoming is a big deal to the Bulls.  After being embarassed last year by Army, the Bulls will be looking to show they have what it takes to be in the Big East.  The Mountaineers are good, but the Bulls will be ready for them. Prediction: USF 31 -- WVU 28 (3-4, 1-2)

Rutgers

USF gets a bye week before heading to New Jersey.  An extra week to play a team that has a reputation for being lower-than-average.  What more is needed? Prediction: USF 37 -- RU 13 (4-4, 2-2)

Syracuse

Two trips to the North to start November, but this one's in the dome.  USF's first ever indoor game.  The Orange are in a rebuilding year with a new coach.  They had similar QB problems as USF last year.  This game is a tossup -- I'm gonna give this to the Bulls. Prediction: USF 27 -- SU 21 (5-4, 3-2)

Cincinnati

The Bearcats lost almost every starter from last year's good team.  Their backups don't have a ton of experience.  USF should pay back the beating last year.  Moreover, the Bulls will be motivated, playing for a chance to go to the first-ever bowl game.Prediction: USF 38 -- UC 17 (6-4, 4-2)

Connecticut

U Conn has a good offense, with a good running game.  But the defense can key on that until their new QB and under-performing receivers prove they can handle the pressure. Put 8 in the box and make 'em throw it.  If USF loses to either WVU or Syracuse, this game could be the most important game since the 2003 home finale against UAB. Prediction: USF 20 -- U Conn 13 (7-4, 5-2)

So, my prediction is for a 7-4 season with upsets over WVU and Syracuse.  USF needs to win one of these two games, and the other predicted wins, to make a bowl game -- probably the Mieneke Car Care Bowl.  

Looks like the Bulls Nation will spend New Years Eve in Charlotte, North Carolina ... assuming my predictions are close.

* Predictions subject to change as the season progresses

[USFMikeB]

PSU - Loss

FAMU - Win

UCF - Win

UL - Loss

UM - Loss

Pitt - Loss

WVU - Loss

RU - Win

Cuse - Win

Cincy - Win

UConn - Loss

5-6 for the season.

[MatRatUSF]

if you want to go bowling at usf, go to university lanes, they will give you a discount, just tell them Mike B sent you

[WoolyBully]

Bowling? Bowling?? Not this year...'specially not given the competition (remember, sportsfans, Army aint on the schedule this year, so there won't be any penciling in the guaranteed wins  : )

PSU - Loss....standard USF road loss

FAMU - Win...against a 1AA team, not too exciting

UCF - Win...So, has UCF improved as much in the off season as we'd like to think we have?

UL - Loss....'nuff said

UM - Loss....hopefully not too much of a waxing

Pitt - Loss...Pitt at home

WVU - Loss...sorry sportsfans, but that would be two homecomings in a row. One unexpected, the other expected but should do good for the gate.

RU - Win....not too surprising

Cuse - ??? Flip a coin...could go either way, but I'd be tempted to put my chips on a loss as a let down from previous week.

Cincy - Win....I'd be surprised if we didn't

UConn - ??? Flip a coin, but I'm inclined to think this one too is a loss. It's on the road, a might chilly.

To go bowling...USF would have to have made phenomenal strides in the off-season and expect the rest of the conference residuals to have taken an equal step back. I don't think that's the case. So, I'm guessing there ain't too many bowl slots for a 4-7 or 5-6 team.

[Guest S.  Bien]

I am with Jim on his predictions.  For me the formula is rather simple, win 4 of 5 at home, and steal two on the road.  We win 6 go 4-3 in the BE and we got a shot at a bowl, and at least a very respectable season to build on.

My only change would be to flip flop Syracuse and Uconn.  Da Cuse is actually a very talented team, and having a defensive minded HC that has some very innovative defenses could do wonders for them.  They're stacked on defense with two all-conference players at DE, and Safety, and a trio of LB's that are big, fast, and strong.  Plus the Carrier Dome could be one of the toughest places to play in America.  Look at last year when a good FSU team almost got beat by a talent Syracuse team with their mediocre coach.

Uconn on the other hand hasn't recruited much better than us.  They lost a ton from last year, and they're an even matched team for us.  Their only advantage might be the weather but by the end of the season the QB position should be shored up somewhat, hopefully Hall is a terror, and the defense should be tight.

[goodknightfl]

I see u winning 3 or 4... 5 at the most... famu.. UCF... Cincy... and either cuse or rutgers not both... 4-7

[Guest]

My only change would be to flip flop Syracuse and Uconn.  Da Cuse is actually a very talented team, and having a defensive minded HC that has some very innovative defenses could do wonders for them.  They're stacked on defense with two all-conference players at DE, and Safety, and a trio of LB's that are big, fast, and strong.  Plus the Carrier Dome could be one of the toughest places to play in America.  Look at last year when a good FSU team almost got beat by a talent Syracuse team with their mediocre coach.

First, Bien... I appreciate your comments.  I actually think U Conn will be a harder win than Syracuse... The Syracuse defense is like the South Florida offense -- loads of talent but couldn't do it on the field last year.  I mean, 91st out of 117 teams says a lot.  We're returning a lot of our offensive starters, but no one thinks we have a good offense... so why would Syracuse have a good defense because they are returning a lot of their starters??

U Conn will have a very strong running game -- if they can get their OL to block for them.  USF had trouble last year stopping the run, especially late in the game.

To be sure, USF's real success this season will come down to the four things that plagued USF last year.

1) Turnovers (more than 4 INTs!)

2) QB-WR execution (both in the pass and in the catch!)

3) Play calling (less vanilla, more flavor!)

4) Tackling (wrap up the ball carrier, no shoulder tackles!)

JMHO.