Big East Exit Fee Issue...

[mikeybull]

It's very saddening that it's come to this. I'd like to know what the **** are Judy and Doug doing in our interest right now.

It hasn't come to this.  It might, eventually.  But I don't think that is a likely scenario for us.  In any event, a lot more things need to play out before we know if that is our destiny.

How is this not a likely scenario? We've got 6 teams remaining with 3 of them openly seeking out other conferences with **** CUSA teams eagerly wanting an entrance to the BE. How is this likely to turn around? If we don't leave the BE to go into a better conference (which is an unlikely scenario) we are fffffd.

[macphisto]

If you want to maintain AQ status then you HAVE to invite Boise State at this point.  This gives you their rankings to solidify you and weakens the MWC, your main competitor for AQ status.

The BCS schools need the Big East or the Mountain West for the future unless they expand AND Notre Dame has a vested interest in the Big East staying together so they can stay independent in football.  I think ND will go to bat for the conference and, despite their problems on the field, ND's voice carries a lot of weight.

So why do they need us?  Just do the math.

Pac-12 - 12 members.

Big XII - 10 members.

SEC - 13 members (maybe 14 if Mizzou can get in).

ACC - 14 members.

B1G - 12 members.

That's 62, so Notre Dame will be the swing vote in the NCAA under this configuration.  62 is exactly half of the number of FBS schools that will exist in 2013 as UTSA, UMass, Texas State, and South Alabama join the FBS to make 124.  If Nova or anyone else jump then that number goes up.

And a majority of schools in FBS can vote to send a lot of rights back to the NCAA and away from the conferences.  The conferences control the BCS, not the NCAA.  If non-BCS programs are at or near majority then the current structure is threatened.  Stripping the Big East of AQ status could cause the whole BCS to fall apart unless they give it to the MWC and the only reason that would happen would be because of Boise State. 

So the pre-emptive strike is to invite the Broncos.  We're down to six, so if we tough it out we need to make sure we go to 12 for football.  Boise State, Air Force, SMU, Houston, ECU, Navy.  And I might consider UMass just coming up as a wildcard here if we go up to 14. 

[Who'sYourData?]

It's very saddening that it's come to this. I'd like to know what the **** are Judy and Doug doing in our interest right now.

It hasn't come to this.  It might, eventually.  But I don't think that is a likely scenario for us.  In any event, a lot more things need to play out before we know if that is our destiny.

How is this not a likely scenario? We've got 6 teams remaining with 3 of them openly seeking out other conferences with **** CUSA teams eagerly wanting an entrance to the BE. How is this likely to turn around? If we don't leave the BE to go into a better conference (which is an unlikely scenario) we are fffffd.

Because there are two scenarios.  One is that we lose at most one other team in the BE.  If there is no other bleeding, the Big East will add four teams and keep the AQ for at least a couple of years.  Mac has a point and maybe the BE goes after Boise, if that can happen. 

The other alternative is that the Big East folds and the teams then get sucked up by the larger conferences.  We would be one of the teams picked up.  We are a member of the big boy club.  Politics are strange, but that is enough clout to very likely not be left out in the cold.  Again, mac has some points about the number of BCS teams and why there needs to be a majority.  The BCS schools would rather take care of a couple of former BE teams than let an entire set of new teams in from the Mountain West. 

Don't think that Big 12 and Big East conference invites are being influenced to some degree by the other conferences.  Genshaft and USF aren't the Florida Gators, but there is some political capital available.

[macphisto]

Because there are two scenarios.  One is that we lose at most one other team in the BE.  If there is no other bleeding, the Big East will add four teams and keep the AQ for at least a couple of years.  Mac has a point and maybe the BE goes after Boise, if that can happen. 

The other alternative is that the Big East folds and the teams then get sucked up by the larger conferences.  We would be one of the teams picked up.  We are a member of the big boy club.  Politics are strange, but that is enough clout to very likely not be left out in the cold.  Again, mac has some points about the number of BCS teams and why there needs to be a majority.  The BCS schools would rather take care of a couple of former BE teams than let an entire set of new teams in from the Mountain West. 

Don't think that Big 12 and Big East conference invites are being influenced to some degree by the other conferences.  Genshaft and USF aren't the Florida Gators, but there is some political capital available.

I think adding Boise would lock up our AQ status for the Big East beyond 2014, especially if West Virginia does well and we do.  Despite out loss to Pitt, we still can have a great season and end the season ranked.  Cincy is another one that may be able to climb. 

If the B1G and the Big XII decide to go to 14 then the five other BCS leagues would be able to have their majority, but it doesn't seem like the B1G wants to grow and if the Big XII goes to 14 then we have nothing to worry about anyways because we'd probably get an invite. 

But money talks in these conferences.  If the Big XII goes beyond ten then they dilute their per school payout.  The SEC will expand because it gives them a right to renegotiate and demand more money then the PAC-12, though adding Mizzou would dilute that money even further.  I think the SEC only adds another team if they feel it will bring enough money to make it worthwhile - probably and extra $20M a year or more to the deal to pay for itself.  But adding a 14th team will take about $1.5 million out of the pockets of each school in TV revenue to pay that team.

The PAC-12 clearly isn't interested in growing either.  And the ACC probably was only willing to go to 16 if the SEC did or if the PAC did.

And it's exactly true - why change the current BCS lineup.  The media will kavetch about the Big East, but how good is the MWC?  They don't play equivalent competition and they have some downright bad teams (New Mexico and UNLV anybody?).

Without that sixth BCS conference there is a stronger possibility of bowls, TV revenue, and most anything else being given over to the NCAA directly.  This actually would be the best hope for a playoff of some kind, but the BCS conferences have no interest in that because they have CONTROL over the current system.

And if BCS AQ status can hop between the MWC and the Big East then what incentive do they have to vote for the system if they can easily lose their AQ status every four years or less?  That's actually something that makes Villanova moving up appealing when you couple it with the other FCS teams moving up.  That would bring the FBS teams up to 125 and increase the amount needed for a majority in order to keep the BCS system in place. 

And what if some successful FCS teams wanted to move up?  Georgia Southern, Delaware, Appalachian State and others? 

I think you need at least 65 BCS teams in order to ensure your majority.  There are 67 currently counting ND and there will be 68 next year when TCU gets added to the Big XII.  Shrinking that number would not be the best option. 

And I would argue that one of the reasons we've seen formerly non-BCS teams added is to expand that majority ahead of the 2013 expansion of the FBS.  I'm sure there might even be a few schools in BCS conferences that could be convinced to vote for giving the NCAA more power, maybe even establish a commissioner to oversee things.  The conferences would not like that. 

[Reliable Source]

BE is toast for FB. There isn't anything left to rescue. They wouldn't vote to raise exit fee because everyone is leaving. The FB teams wouldn't even vote to add teams on Friday. Tater Head can't do anything but wait and watch it turn into a BB only conf. Everybody has an out. Just wait for the dominoes to fall. The SEC E-W alignment is the only hold up right now, due to Mizzou's "friend" who seems to be visiting. Once they figure out where they are going everything will happen pretty quickly. UC and UL to B12. WVU and FSU to SEC. USF, Uconn and Rutgers to ACC. Easy peezy  japaneezy

[Reliable Source]

After I posted that last i found this. It was kind of scary how it echoed what I have come to believe.

4. How did Missouri become the school now in charge of how conference realignment shakes out?

I have no idea, but that's pretty much where we're at ... at this moment. Missouri is either waiting to see what the SEC will do before making a decision or the SEC is waiting to see what Missouri will do before making a decision. Either way, everything should remain as is until Missouri announces that it's staying in the Big 12 or leaving for the SEC, and once that decision is made, then the next dominoes will start to fall. Depending on what happens with Missouri, Louisville and/or West Virginia could follow TCU to the Big 12. So the Big East is still vulnerable, and the league has no idea how many football-playing members it'll have this time next week. Could be six. Could be three or four. Who knows? All I know is that Missouri will play a role in determining everything that happens from this point forward, and I can honestly tell you that I never imagined I'd sit here on a Friday and write that sentence. Not in this lifetime.

5. Regardless of what happens, is the Big East done?

It's done in the sense that it'll never be what it once was. That's over. It's sad, but as I wrote earlier this week the league has nobody to blame but itself. A lack of vision and leadership put the Big East in this position. In an eat-or-be-eaten world, you either throw punches or take punches, and the Big East inexplicably opted to fight this realignment fight with both hands tied behind its back. What we're watching is the byproduct, and we're watching it in real time.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/story/15700991/five-for-the-weekend-lots-of-fun-season-hasnt-even-begun

[Who'sYourData?]

BE is toast for FB. There isn't anything left to rescue. They wouldn't vote to raise exit fee because everyone is leaving. The FB teams wouldn't even vote to add teams on Friday. Tater Head can't do anything but wait and watch it turn into a BB only conf. Everybody has an out. Just wait for the dominoes to fall. The SEC E-W alignment is the only hold up right now, due to Mizzou's "friend" who seems to be visiting. Once they figure out where they are going everything will happen pretty quickly. UC and UL to B12. WVU and FSU to SEC. USF, Uconn and Rutgers to ACC. Easy peezy  japaneezy

I hope it goes just like that, and really quickly.  My fear is that the B12 will take zero or one BE teams, and the BE will stagger along like a drunken sailor for another year or two before someone puts it out of its misery.  In the meantime, a few schools float along waiting for the final expansions that must happen, but the conference will continue to move one or two schools per year.  I'm not really sure why it is happening this way.  Maybe they are scared of upsetting things too quickly and drawing lawsuits.  Maybe they are just scared.  Maybe they are being nice.

Whatever, too many of these moves have been way too obvious for too long.  Let's get it over with.

[Who'sYourData?]

And it's exactly true - why change the current BCS lineup.

Because ESPN/ABC wants to control all the BCS AQ TV.  It's easier to do if there are less conferences.  And, unfortunately, the BE turned down the contract.  Conspiracy theory #578 suggests that was the tipping point.  If the BE signed off on the deal, it might be the B12 that turned up dead.  Or maybe all six would have continued.  But the BE didn't go along, so something had to be done!

[mikeybull]

It's very saddening that it's come to this. I'd like to know what the **** are Judy and Doug doing in our interest right now.

It hasn't come to this.  It might, eventually.  But I don't think that is a likely scenario for us.  In any event, a lot more things need to play out before we know if that is our destiny.

How is this not a likely scenario? We've got 6 teams remaining with 3 of them openly seeking out other conferences with **** CUSA teams eagerly wanting an entrance to the BE. How is this likely to turn around? If we don't leave the BE to go into a better conference (which is an unlikely scenario) we are fffffd.

Because there are two scenarios.  One is that we lose at most one other team in the BE.  If there is no other bleeding, the Big East will add four teams and keep the AQ for at least a couple of years.  Mac has a point and maybe the BE goes after Boise, if that can happen. 

The other alternative is that the Big East folds and the teams then get sucked up by the larger conferences.  We would be one of the teams picked up.  We are a member of the big boy club.  Politics are strange, but that is enough clout to very likely not be left out in the cold.  Again, mac has some points about the number of BCS teams and why there needs to be a majority.  The BCS schools would rather take care of a couple of former BE teams than let an entire set of new teams in from the Mountain West. 

Don't think that Big 12 and Big East conference invites are being influenced to some degree by the other conferences.  Genshaft and USF aren't the Florida Gators, but there is some political capital available.

While I respect the optimism and those would be fantastic scenarios...I am not drawing any of those conclusions based on the information I've been reading. USF is hardly mentioned in any instances of the Big East disassembling which is starting to happen. It would be a miracle if politics can some how leave us in a better situation because the PR for our school sucks (as far as conference realignment goes). Yes we have a large network market, yes we've beaten top 25 teams. But we haven't won the Big East. We've had ok records and won ok bowls. Commentators regard us as a school that is lucky to be where we are because of the youth of the program. We've literally had no respect over the past years and I don't see any in sight. If super conferences do begin to form as the signs are pointing to, that leaves several teams without an AQ conference. As it stands, USF only candidacy appears to be for the chopping block.

[Who'sYourData?]

USF is in too large of a TV market to be ignored long term.  The reason USF isn't mentioned is because USF isn't leaking stories to the press, begging for a conference to pick us up.  UConn and Rutgers are justifiably scared, so they are trying to generate conversation for themselves.  Just because their name is in the papers, doesn't mean they are the schools being discussed behind closed doors.  Leaks are purposeful, just like Mizzou supposedly saying the SEC was it's second choice after the B1G.  That Mizzou rumor was supposedly "leaked" to a reporter that is in the pocket of the Texas Longhorns.  It is in the Longhorns best interest to make the SEC mad at Mizzou.