October Blues

[Buller64]

Here is a month by month record of the Bulls (Nov. and Dec. combined).

September (total)

Wins - 32

Losses - 16

October

Wins - 24

Losses - 20

Nov. and Dec.

Wins - 30

Losses - 14

Bowls

Wins - 2

Losses - 2

Since joining the BE [C-USA in brackets]

September

Wins - 15 [4]

Losses - 3 [2]

October

Wins - 5 [3]

Losses - 8 [5]

Nov. and Dec.

Wins - 10 [4]

Losses - 6 [4]

As we can see the team has a real hard time winning in October (when the BE conference begins). On the plus side though, the team does come back and play well in November. This was also true in C-USA.  An interesting point, most of the Nov. and Dec. losses were in the first week of November (October hangover?).

Question: Are the October results because of the OOC schedule or from a lack of depth?

I think it is primarily because of the lack of depth.  Overall the OOC has been very soild.  The injury situation would be reflected by a strong September, when the team is healthy.  Then troubles in October as the injuries begin to mount up (the back-ups are not as good as the starters).  Then when the injuries begin to heal in November, the teams injuries begins to play better as starters return.

Will the Bulls buck that trend this year?

I don't think so.  The team still doesn't have the high level of backups needed in the O-line and D-line.  So I would expect the Bulls to have a great September and then struggle through the BE once again, and once again the problems will be in October.

[outrunner]

great breakdown

looking at this season,

Oct 03 @ Syracuse

Oct 10 OFF WEEK

Oct 15 Cincinnati

Oct 24 @ Pittsburgh

Oct 30 West Virginia

Nov 07 OFF WEEK

I think this schedule favors the bulls to "buck that trend".

Cuse should be a lock for a win.

With 12 days to prepare for Cincinnati and home field advantage, I give us a 65-35 chance. Then again, it is a Thursday night.

On the road at Pittsburgh is the one game in October that really concerns me. We are not a great road, but having 9 days should help.

West Virgina. Rivalry atmosphere at RayJ. Friday night lights. Halloween weekend. We'll be ready play.

3-1 best case

2-2 most likely

[Guest]

The issue is preparation... USF's schedule only includes FSU as real prep.

Cincinnati plays @ Oregon State and Fresno State... They also have a bye week before playing us...

Pittsburgh plays @ NC State, L'ville, U Conn, @ Rutgers... part of 7 straight games without a week off. And USF only has one more day to prep (Rutgers is a Fri game for the Panthers).

West Virginia plays Auburn and Colorado... of the three, the Mountaineers will be the least prepared before we face them...

I can see these three games being the "mid season swoon"... if USF can start with a win over Cincy, we could avoid our Black October.

[gobulls83]

I can see these three games being the "mid season swoon"... if USF can start with a win over Cincy, we could avoid our Black October.

Yeah while depth was obviously the primary issue, I think momentum or whatever the appropriate word is had a lot to do with the past two Octobers. The losses to Pitt in 2008 and especially Rutgers in 2007 really deflated the team. The situation seems favorable going into the Tressey Bowl, so hopefully the Bulls can begin their crucial Big East stretch this year with a confidence-booster instead of the start of a freefall.

[BleacherBull]

The team still doesn't have the high level of backups needed in the O-line and D-line.

I didn't think D-line depth was supposed to be a problem this year.

[Carolina_Bull]

Last season's schedule was a travesty. . . . . . . seriously, from a logistics standpoint (as logistics applies to end-performance), it was probably one of the three worst schedules in college football.

(1) Two early bye weeks (didn't we have an 18 day layoff at one point),

(2) Serving as the villain and ending the UCF series on the road (IMO, we won the game but lost our mojo),

(3) Serving as inaugural visitor for a stadium opening at FIU,

(4) Playing two road games in five days,

(5) Hosting a poorly attended sunday night game played the same day as a Rays playoff game, and

(6) Playing visitor in WV for their emotional send-off of Pat White in the snow.

It seemed like the 2008 schedule was had no flow (athletes love to adhere to routines) and starts and that almost every road game had a back story that had nothing to do with football.

One of my biggest reasons for hope this year is the fact our schedule is not such a clusterf*ck.

[CousinRicky]

I would contribute the October swoon to injuries/depth.  Will it improve this year?  Depends on injuries and the positions of those injured.  OLine is always a fear but I'm afraid this year an injury to a linebacker could be disastrous.  If we stay injury free, we should be fine in October, meaning 3 - 1.