Bowl Analysis -- Detailed by Conference -- Week 13

[E.T.]

Just hope UF, FSU & UM lose  8-)

[Guest]

Bowl Analysis

There are 73 teams eligible for 64 bowl slots...

"Eligible" = 6 wins // "Ineligible" = 7 losses

Twenty-Seven bowl bids have already been announced.

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Big East conference - 6 Slots - 6 Teams Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Pittsburgh, Louisville, Rutgers, West Virginia, South Florida, Cincinnati

Bowl Ineligible: Syracuse, Connecticut

Jim's Projections:

BCS (Orange) - Louisville

Gator - West Virignia

Texas - Rutgers

Meineke - Navy

Birmingham - South Florida

International - Cincinnati

No Bowl - Pittsburgh

---

Atlantic Coast Conference - 8 Slots - 8 Teams Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Clemson, Wake Forest, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Florida State, Miami

Bowl Ineligible: Duke, North Carolina, NC State, Virginia

Jim's Projections:

BCS (Orange) - Georgia Tech

Chik-Fil-A - Boston College

Gator - Virginia Tech

Champs - Maryland

Music City - Clemson

Meineke - Wake Forest

Emerald - Florida State

MPC Computers - Miami

---

Big Ten Conference - 7 Slots - 7 Teams Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Penn State, Iowa, Purdue, Minnesota

Bowl Ineligible: Illinois, Northwestern, Michigan State, Indiana

Jim's Projections:

BCS (National Championship, Rose Bowl) - Ohio State, Michigan

Capitol 1 - Wisconsin

Outback - Penn State

Champs - Purdue

Alamo - Iowa

Insight - Minnesota

Motor City - OPEN (Kansas)

---

Big Twelve Conference - 8 Slots - 9 Teams Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Nebraska, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Kansas

Bowl Ineligible: Colorado, Iowa State, Baylor

Jim's Projections:

BCS (Fiesta) - Oklahoma

Cotton - Nebraska

Holiday - Texas A&M

Sun - Texas

Alamo - Missouri

Insight - Texas Tech

Independence - Ok State

Texas - Kansas State

No Bowl - Kansas

---

Pacific Ten Conference - 6 Slots - 8 Teams Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Southern Cal, California, Oregon, Washington State, Oregon State, Arizona State, Arizona, UCLA

Bowl Ineligible: Stanford, Washington

Jim's Projections:

BCS (National Championship) - USC

Holiday - California

Sun - Oregon St

Vegas - Oregon

Emerald - UCLA

Hawaii - Arizona State

No Bowl - Washington St.

No Bowl - Arizona

---

Southeastern Conference - 8 Slots - 9 Teams Eligible

Bowl Eligible: LSU, Florida, Auburn, Tennessee, Georgia, Arkansas, Alabama, Kentucky, South Carolina

Bowl Ineligible: Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

Jim's Projections:

BCS (Sugar, Rose) - Florida, LSU

Capitol 1 - Arkansas

Cotton - Auburn

Outback - Tennessee

Chick-Fil-A - Georgia

Music City - Kentucky

Liberty - South Carolina

Independence - Alabama

---

Conference USA - 5 Slots - 6 Teams Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Tulsa, Houston, East Carolina, Southern Mississippi, Southern Methodist, Rice

Bowl Ineligible: Memphis, UCF, Alabama-Birmingham, Tulane, Marshall, UTEP

Jim's Projections:

Liberty - Houston/Southern Mississippi Winner

GMAC -  Houston/Southern Mississippi Loser

Birmingham - East Carolina

Armed Forces - Tulsa

New Orleans - Rice

No Bowl - Southern Methodist

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Mid-American Conference - 3 Slots - 5 Teams Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Ohio, Western Michigan, Central Michigan, Kent State, Northern Illinois

Bowl Ineligible: Miami (OH), Buffalo, Eastern Michigan, Ball State, Toldeo, Bowling Green, Akron

Jim's Projections:

Motor City - Central Michigan

GMAC - Ohio

International - Western Michigan

Poinsettia - Northern Illinois (AT LARGE SLOT)

No Bowl - Kent State

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Mountain West Conference - 4 Slots - 5 Teams Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Brigham Young, TCU, Utah, Wyoming, New Mexico

Bowl Ineligible: UNLV, San Diego State, Air Force, Colorado State

Jim's Projections:

Las Vegas - BYU

Poinsettia - TCU

Armed Forces - Utah

New Mexico - New Mexico

No Bowl - Wyoming

---

Western Athletic Confernece - 3 Slots - 4 Teams Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Boise State (@ Nevada), Hawaii, Nevada, San Jose State

Bowl Ineligible: Utah State, Fresno State, New Mexico State, Louisiana Tech, Idaho

Jim's Projections:

BCS (Fiesta) - Boise State

MPC Computers - Nevada

New Mexico - San Jose St

Hawaii - Hawaii

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Sun Belt - 1 Slot - 4 Teams Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Middle Tennesee State, Arkansas State, Troy, Louisiana-Lafayette

Bowl Ineligible: Florida International, Louisiana-Monroe, North Texas, Florida Atlantic

Jim's Projections:

New Orleans - Troy

Motor City - Middle Tennessee State (BIG TEN SLOT)

No Bowl - Louisiana-Lafayette

No Bowl - Arkansas State

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I-A Indepenents - 2 Teams Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Notre Dame, Navy

Bowl Ineligible: Temple, Army

Jim's Projections:

BCS (Sugar) - Notre Dame

Meineke - Navy

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Projected Open Bowl Slots

Poinsettia [At Large Slot] - Army failed to get to 6 wins, therefore this is an open slot.

Motor City [big Ten Slot] - With 2 BCS bids, the Big Ten won't have enough eligible teams.

Projected Available Teams - For the Open Bowl Slots Above

Projected 7-5 teams

Northern Illinois (Poinsettia)

Middle Tennessee State (Motor City)

Louisiana Lafayette

Projected 6-6 teams

Pittsburgh

Kansas

Washington State

Arizona

Southern Methodist

Kent State

Wyoming

Arkansas State

Projected BCS At-Large Teams

Michigan

Boise State

Notre Dame

LSU or Florida

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NCAA Bylaws

30.9.2 Contest Status. [i-A] A contest shall be licensed only if it serves the purpose of providing a national contest between deserving winning teams. A “deserving winning team†shall be defined as one that has won a minimum of six games against Division I-A opponents and that has more wins than losses. Tie games do not count in determining a team’s won-lost record. Further, when forfeiture of a regular-season football victory is required by the Committee on Infractions, a conference or self-imposed by an institution as a result of a violation of NCAA rules, neither of the competing institutions may count that contest in satisfying the definition of a “deserving winning team.†(Revised: 10/18/89, 10/12/93, 4/20/99)

30.9.2.1 Exception  12 Game Season. An institution with a record of six wins and six losses may be selected for participation in a bowl game under the following circumstances: (Adopted: 4/27/06 effective 8/1/06)

(a) The institution or its conference has a primary contractual affiliation, which existed prior to the first contest of the applicable season, with the sponsoring bowl organization. In the case of a conference contractual affiliation, all conference teams with winning records must be placed in one of the contracted bowl games before any institution with a record of six wins and six losses may be placed in a contracted bowl game. There shall be no contingency agreements with other sponsoring bowl organizations intended to enable an institution with a record of six wins and six losses to become eligible for those contests; or

( All contractual affiliations per Bylaw 30.9.2.1-(a) have been fulfilled and all institutions with winning records have received bowl invitations (either through a contractual affiliation or as an at large selection).

(Emphasis added.)

[Guest]

The PAC-10 bowls have been set - except for wherever USC goes.

Only the Big East, Big 12, and SEC teams have not been designated as of yet... with a few mid major slots still TBA.

These are generally waiting on games this weekend and/or the BCS selections.

[NormalBull]

Jim:

You can bold Northern Illinois in the Poinsettia.  That was announced yesterday according to the local paper.

Normal

[Guest]

Thanks, Normal -- It was a typo (had an extra tag).

[cophbulls]

Just my two cents, doesn't mean a thing. The way I see it for BE to get two invites to the BCS party four things have to happen, Rutgers win, Florida lose, USC lose and Louisville wins. Rutgers will go as champion and theoretically Louisville will move to #4 in the BCS.

In theory then you would have Ohio st v Michigan in the championship and auto bids going to Wake/GT, Arkansas, Rutgers, Oklahoma/Neb, USC and Boise St. LSU would move to #3 giving them an auto bid leaving one open slot which would automatically go to Louisville due to the following.

If any of the 10 slots remain open after application of provisions 1 through 5, and if no team qualifies under paragraph No. 5 and an at-large team from a conference with an annual automatic berth for its champion is ranked No. 4 in the final BCS Standings, that team will become an automatic qualifier provided that no at-large team from the same conference qualifies for the national championship game

This would put WV in the Gator or Sun, USF in Texas, Cincy at Bham and Pitt in Intnl Bowl.

In theory Louisville could still go if Rutgers wins and USC and/or Florida wins but that would mean one of the bowls would have to take Louisville over Notre Dame, and we all know that aint gonna happen. Another reason for me to dispise the green irish homos

[Guest]

Just my two cents, doesn't mean a thing. The way I see it for BE to get two invites to the BCS party four things have to happen, Rutgers win, Florida lose, USC lose and Louisville wins. Rutgers will go as champion and theoretically Louisville will move to #4 in the BCS.

In theory then you would have Ohio st v Michigan in the championship and auto bids going to Wake/GT, Arkansas, Rutgers, Oklahoma/Neb, USC and Boise St. LSU would move to #3 giving them an auto bid leaving one open slot which would automatically go to Louisville due to the following.

If any of the 10 slots remain open after application of provisions 1 through 5, and if no team qualifies under paragraph No. 5 and an at-large team from a conference with an annual automatic berth for its champion is ranked No. 4 in the final BCS Standings, that team will become an automatic qualifier provided that no at-large team from the same conference qualifies for the national championship game

This would put WV in the Gator or Sun, USF in Texas, Cincy at Bham and Pitt in Intnl Bowl.

The bold part above is makes point #10 irrelevant.  See, under #5, LSU would get the bid because they would be ranked 3rd and be an at-large team.

In theory Louisville could still go if Rutgers wins and USC and/or Florida wins but that would mean one of the bowls would have to take Louisville over Notre Dame, and we all know that aint gonna happen. Another reason for me to dispise the green irish homos

This is still true, but it would not be over Notre Dame.  They will get an automatic bid by finishing #8 (which will happen because either USC,  Florida or Arkansas will drop below them - depending on who wins).  It would a choice between Louisville and a 2-loss SEC team (LSU or Florida).

[Joe]

Jim, Big 12 solidified a bowl bid:

Texas A&M - Holiday

The B12 title game loser will go to Cotton.

The problem is the Gator, they can (and probably will) take Texas, if they don't they will go to the Alamo Bowl.

The Sun is waiting to see if

[Guest]

Jim, Big 12 solidified a bowl bid:

Texas A&M - Holiday

The B12 title game loser will go to Cotton.

The problem is the Gator, they can (and probably will) take Texas, if they don't they will go to the Alamo Bowl.

The Sun is waiting to see if

Joe,

I see the report about the Cotton Bowl... but if Nebraska beats Oklahoma, the Gator could still step ahead of the Cotton and take the Sooners.

The Holiday Bowl was announced after my post... at least according to the Houston Chronical article... so thanks for that update I will change my post.

[Guest]

Bowl Analysis

There are 73 teams eligible for 64 bowl slots...

"Eligible" = 6 wins // "Ineligible" = 7 losses

Twenty-Eight bowl bids have already been announced.

---

Big East conference - 6 Slots - 6 Teams Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Pittsburgh, Louisville, Rutgers, West Virginia, South Florida, Cincinnati

Bowl Ineligible: Syracuse, Connecticut

Jim's Projections:

BCS (Orange) - Louisville

Gator - West Virignia

Texas - Rutgers

Meineke - Navy

Birmingham - South Florida

International - Cincinnati

No Bowl - Pittsburgh

---

Atlantic Coast Conference - 8 Slots - 8 Teams Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Clemson, Wake Forest, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Florida State, Miami

Bowl Ineligible: Duke, North Carolina, NC State, Virginia

Jim's Projections:

BCS (Orange) - Georgia Tech

Chik-Fil-A - Boston College

Gator - Virginia Tech

Champs - Maryland

Music City - Clemson

Meineke - Wake Forest

Emerald - Florida State

MPC Computers - Miami

---

Big Ten Conference - 7 Slots - 7 Teams Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Penn State, Iowa, Purdue, Minnesota

Bowl Ineligible: Illinois, Northwestern, Michigan State, Indiana

Jim's Projections:

BCS (National Championship, Rose Bowl) - Ohio State, Michigan

Capitol 1 - Wisconsin

Outback - Penn State

Champs - Purdue

Alamo - Iowa

Insight - Minnesota

Motor City - OPEN (Kansas)

---

Big Twelve Conference - 8 Slots - 9 Teams Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Nebraska, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Kansas

Bowl Ineligible: Colorado, Iowa State, Baylor

Jim's Projections:

BCS (Fiesta) - Oklahoma

Cotton - Nebraska

Holiday - Texas A&M

Sun - Missouri

Alamo - Texas

Insight - Texas Tech

Independence - Ok State

Texas - Kansas State

No Bowl - Kansas

---

Pacific Ten Conference - 6 Slots - 8 Teams Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Southern Cal, California, Oregon, Washington State, Oregon State, Arizona State, Arizona, UCLA

Bowl Ineligible: Stanford, Washington

Jim's Projections:

BCS (National Championship) - USC

Holiday - California

Sun - Oregon St

Vegas - Oregon

Emerald - UCLA

Hawaii - Arizona State

No Bowl - Washington St.

No Bowl - Arizona

---

Southeastern Conference - 8 Slots - 9 Teams Eligible

Bowl Eligible: LSU, Florida, Auburn, Tennessee, Georgia, Arkansas, Alabama, Kentucky, South Carolina

Bowl Ineligible: Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

Jim's Projections:

BCS (Sugar, Rose) - Florida, LSU

Capitol 1 - Arkansas

Cotton - Auburn

Outback - Tennessee

Chick-Fil-A - Georgia

Music City - Kentucky

Liberty - South Carolina

Independence - Alabama

---

Conference USA - 5 Slots - 6 Teams Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Tulsa, Houston, East Carolina, Southern Mississippi, Southern Methodist, Rice

Bowl Ineligible: Memphis, UCF, Alabama-Birmingham, Tulane, Marshall, UTEP

Jim's Projections:

Liberty - Houston/Southern Mississippi Winner

GMAC -  Houston/Southern Mississippi Loser

Birmingham - East Carolina

Armed Forces - Tulsa

New Orleans - Rice

No Bowl - Southern Methodist

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Mid-American Conference - 3 Slots - 5 Teams Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Ohio, Western Michigan, Central Michigan, Kent State, Northern Illinois

Bowl Ineligible: Miami (OH), Buffalo, Eastern Michigan, Ball State, Toldeo, Bowling Green, Akron

Jim's Projections:

Motor City - Central Michigan

GMAC - Ohio

International - Western Michigan

Poinsettia - Northern Illinois (AT LARGE SLOT)

No Bowl - Kent State

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Mountain West Conference - 4 Slots - 5 Teams Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Brigham Young, TCU, Utah, Wyoming, New Mexico

Bowl Ineligible: UNLV, San Diego State, Air Force, Colorado State

Jim's Projections:

Las Vegas - BYU

Poinsettia - TCU

Armed Forces - Utah

New Mexico - New Mexico

No Bowl - Wyoming

---

Western Athletic Confernece - 3 Slots - 4 Teams Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Boise State (@ Nevada), Hawaii, Nevada, San Jose State

Bowl Ineligible: Utah State, Fresno State, New Mexico State, Louisiana Tech, Idaho

Jim's Projections:

BCS (Fiesta) - Boise State

MPC Computers - Nevada

New Mexico - San Jose St

Hawaii - Hawaii

---

Sun Belt - 1 Slot - 4 Teams Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Middle Tennesee State, Arkansas State, Troy, Louisiana-Lafayette

Bowl Ineligible: Florida International, Louisiana-Monroe, North Texas, Florida Atlantic

Jim's Projections:

New Orleans - Troy

Motor City - Middle Tennessee State (BIG TEN SLOT)

No Bowl - Louisiana-Lafayette

No Bowl - Arkansas State

---

I-A Indepenents - 2 Teams Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Notre Dame, Navy

Bowl Ineligible: Temple, Army

Jim's Projections:

BCS (Sugar) - Notre Dame

Meineke - Navy

---

Projected Open Bowl Slots

Poinsettia [At Large Slot] - Army failed to get to 6 wins, therefore this is an open slot.

Motor City [big Ten Slot] - With 2 BCS bids, the Big Ten won't have enough eligible teams.

Projected Available Teams - For the Open Bowl Slots Above

Projected 7-5 teams

Northern Illinois (Poinsettia)

Middle Tennessee State (Motor City)

Louisiana Lafayette

Projected 6-6 teams

Pittsburgh

Kansas

Washington State

Arizona

Southern Methodist

Kent State

Wyoming

Arkansas State

Projected BCS At-Large Teams

Michigan

Boise State

Notre Dame

LSU or Florida

---

NCAA Bylaws

30.9.2 Contest Status. [i-A] A contest shall be licensed only if it serves the purpose of providing a national contest between deserving winning teams. A “deserving winning team†shall be defined as one that has won a minimum of six games against Division I-A opponents and that has more wins than losses. Tie games do not count in determining a team’s won-lost record. Further, when forfeiture of a regular-season football victory is required by the Committee on Infractions, a conference or self-imposed by an institution as a result of a violation of NCAA rules, neither of the competing institutions may count that contest in satisfying the definition of a “deserving winning team.†(Revised: 10/18/89, 10/12/93, 4/20/99)

30.9.2.1 Exception  12 Game Season. An institution with a record of six wins and six losses may be selected for participation in a bowl game under the following circumstances: (Adopted: 4/27/06 effective 8/1/06)

(a) The institution or its conference has a primary contractual affiliation, which existed prior to the first contest of the applicable season, with the sponsoring bowl organization. In the case of a conference contractual affiliation, all conference teams with winning records must be placed in one of the contracted bowl games before any institution with a record of six wins and six losses may be placed in a contracted bowl game. There shall be no contingency agreements with other sponsoring bowl organizations intended to enable an institution with a record of six wins and six losses to become eligible for those contests; or

( All contractual affiliations per Bylaw 30.9.2.1-(a) have been fulfilled and all institutions with winning records have received bowl invitations (either through a contractual affiliation or as an at large selection).

(Emphasis added.)