Bowl Analysis -- Detailed by Conference -- Week 13

[Jim Johnson]

Bowl Analysis

There are 73 teams eligible for 64 bowl slots...

"Eligible" = 6 wins // "Ineligible" = 7 losses

Nine bowl bids have already been accepted.

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Big East conference - 6 Slots - 6 Teams Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Pittsburgh, Louisville, Rutgers, West Virginia, South Florida, Cincinnati

Bowl Ineligible: Syracuse, Connecticut

Jim's Projections:

BCS (Orange) - Louisville

Gator - West Virignia

Texas - Rutgers

Meineke - Navy

Birmingham - South Florida

International - Cincinnati

No Bowl - Pittsburgh

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Atlantic Coast Conference - 8 Slots - 8 Teams Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Clemson, Wake Forest, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Florida State, Miami

Bowl Ineligible: Duke, North Carolina, NC State, Virginia

Jim's Projections:

BCS (Orange) - Georgia Tech

Chik-Fil-A - Boston College

Gator - Virginia Tech

Champs - Maryland

Music City - Clemson

Meineke - Wake Forest

Emerald - Florida State

MPC Computers - Miami

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Big Ten Conference - 7 Slots - 7 Teams Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Penn State, Iowa, Purdue, Minnesota

Bowl Ineligible: Illinois, Northwestern, Michigan State, Indiana

Jim's Projections:

BCS (National Championship, Rose Bowl) - Ohio State, Michigan

Capitol 1 - Wisconsin

Outback - Penn State

Champs - Purdue

Alamo - Iowa

Insight - Minnesota

Motor City - OPEN (Kansas)

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Big Twelve Conference - 8 Slots - 9 Teams Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Nebraska, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Kansas

Bowl Ineligible: Colorado, Iowa State, Baylor

Jim's Projections:

BCS (Fiesta) - Oklahoma

Cotton - Nebraska

Holiday - Texas A&M

Sun - Texas

Alamo - Missouri

Insight - Texas Tech

Independence - Ok State

Texas - Kansas State

No Bowl - Kansas

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Pacific Ten Conference - 6 Slots - 8 Teams Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Southern Cal, California, Oregon, Washington State, Oregon State, Arizona State, Arizona, UCLA

Bowl Ineligible: Stanford, Washington

Jim's Projections:

BCS (National Championship) - USC

Holiday - California

Sun - Oregon St

Vegas - Oregon

Emerald - Arizona/Arizona State Winner

Hawaii - Arizona/Arizona State Loser

No Bowl - Washington St.

No Bowl - UCLA

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Southeastern Conference - 8 Slots - 9 Teams Eligible

Bowl Eligible: LSU, Florida, Auburn, Tennessee, Georgia, Arkansas, Alabama, Kentucky, South Carolina

Bowl Ineligible: Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

Jim's Projections:

BCS (Sugar, Rose) - Florida, LSU

Capitol 1 - Arkansas

Cotton - Auburn

Outback - Tennessee

Chick-Fil-A - Georgia

Music City - Kentucky

Liberty - South Carolina

Independence - Alabama

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Conference USA - 5 Slots - 6 Teams Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Tulsa, Houston, East Carolina, Southern Mississippi, Southern Methodist, Rice

Bowl Ineligible: Memphis, UCF, Alabama-Birmingham, Tulane, Marshall, UTEP

Jim's Projections:

Liberty - Houston/Southern Mississippi Winner

GMAC -  Houston/Southern Mississippi Loser

Birmingham - East Carolina

Armed Forces - Tulsa

New Orleans - Rice

No Bowl - Southern Methodist

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Mid-American Conference - 3 Slots - 5 Teams Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Ohio, Western Michigan, Central Michigan, Kent State, Northern Illinois

Bowl Ineligible: Miami (OH), Buffalo, Eastern Michigan, Ball State, Toldeo, Bowling Green, Akron

Jim's Projections:

Motor City - Central Michigan

GMAC - Ohio

International - Western Michigan

Poinsettia - Northern Illinois (AT LARGE SLOT)

No Bowl - Kent State

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Mountain West Conference - 4 Slots - 5 Teams Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Brigham Young, TCU, Utah, Wyoming, New Mexico

Bowl Ineligible: UNLV, San Diego State, Air Force, Colorado State

Jim's Projections:

Las Vegas - BYU

Poinsettia - TCU

Armed Forces - Utah

New Mexico - New Mexico

No Bowl - Wyoming

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Western Athletic Confernece - 3 Slots - 4 Teams Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Boise State (@ Nevada), Hawaii, Nevada, San Jose State

Bowl Ineligible: Utah State, Fresno State, New Mexico State, Louisiana Tech, Idaho

Jim's Projections:

BCS (Fiesta) - Boise State

MPC Computers - Nevada

New Mexico - San Jose St

Hawaii - Hawaii

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Sun Belt - 1 Slot - 4 Teams Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Middle Tennesee State, Arkansas State, Troy, Louisiana-Lafayette

Bowl Ineligible: Florida International, Louisiana-Monroe, North Texas, Florida Atlantic

Jim's Projections:

New Orleans - Troy

Motor City - Middle Tennessee State (BIG TEN SLOT)

No Bowl - Louisiana-Lafayette

No Bowl - Arkansas State

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I-A Indepenents - 2 Teams Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Notre Dame, Navy

Bowl Ineligible: Temple, Army

Jim's Projections:

BCS (Sugar) - Notre Dame

Meineke - Navy

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Projected Open Bowl Slots

Poinsettia [At Large Slot] - Army failed to get to 6 wins, therefore this is an open slot.

Motor City [big Ten Slot] - With 2 BCS bids, the Big Ten won't have enough eligible teams.

Projected Available Teams - For the Open Bowl Slots Above

Projected 7-5 teams

Northern Illinois (Poinsettia)

Middle Tennessee State (Motor City)

Louisiana Lafayette

Projected 6-6 teams

Pittsburgh

Kansas

Washington State

UCLA

Southern Methodist

Kent State

Wyoming

Arkansas State

Projected BCS At-Large Teams

Michigan

Boise State

Notre Dame

LSU or Florida

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NCAA Bylaws

30.9.2 Contest Status. [i-A] A contest shall be licensed only if it serves the purpose of providing a national contest between deserving winning teams. A “deserving winning team†shall be defined as one that has won a minimum of six games against Division I-A opponents and that has more wins than losses. Tie games do not count in determining a team’s won-lost record. Further, when forfeiture of a regular-season football victory is required by the Committee on Infractions, a conference or self-imposed by an institution as a result of a violation of NCAA rules, neither of the competing institutions may count that contest in satisfying the definition of a “deserving winning team.†(Revised: 10/18/89, 10/12/93, 4/20/99)

30.9.2.1 Exception  12 Game Season. An institution with a record of six wins and six losses may be selected for participation in a bowl game under the following circumstances: (Adopted: 4/27/06 effective 8/1/06)

(a) The institution or its conference has a primary contractual affiliation, which existed prior to the first contest of the applicable season, with the sponsoring bowl organization. In the case of a conference contractual affiliation, all conference teams with winning records must be placed in one of the contracted bowl games before any institution with a record of six wins and six losses may be placed in a contracted bowl game. There shall be no contingency agreements with other sponsoring bowl organizations intended to enable an institution with a record of six wins and six losses to become eligible for those contests; or

( All contractual affiliations per Bylaw 30.9.2.1-(a) have been fulfilled and all institutions with winning records have received bowl invitations (either through a contractual affiliation or as an at large selection).

(Emphasis added.)

[Guest]

Updated.

Florida State will be in the Emerald Bowl.

http://www.tallahassee.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061126/FSU03/611260336/1002/SPORTS

[Guest]

Updated again.  Miami vs Nevada in the MPC Computers Bowl in Boise Idaho.

http://www.idahostatesman.com/104/story/61669.html

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Man that move to the ACC was a good idea!!

[AndytheBull]

Hey Jim, is the Mienike Bowl's contract w/ Navy just for this year? And thanks for doing this all season.

[Guest]

Hey Jim, is the Mienike Bowl's contract w/ Navy just for this year? And thanks for doing this all season.

Yes, and you're welcome!!

[Bullsayer]

That's great. This is really our best Bowl opportunity from a fans standpoint. Great City, Great date etc. really enjoyed my 2 nites in Charlotte oover New Years. Hope we can get there next year.

[Guest]

List updated.  TCU and NIU to the Poinsettia Bowl, Utah to the Armed Forces bowl.

http://www.signonsandiego.com/sports/college_football/20061128-9999-1s28bowl.html

http://www.sltrib.com/ci_4729735

The Utah paper says that Tulsa is the most likely candidate for the Armed Forces game.

[E.T.]

Let me ask you Mr. Expert ...

Meineke - Navy

Per Brett's blog, this was a 1 year deal ... do you think they will do it again for next season as a 1 year deal again ?

[Joe]

E.T. that deal was for this season, the next two seasons (2007,2008) Navy has a deal with the Poinsetta Bowl in San Diego.

However, Army is in talks to sign a similar deal with the MCCB for those years. (They haven't been to a bowl since 1996)

In 2009, expect an all out bidding war for Navy, with several bowls getting involved. They brings fans that smaller bowl games only dream of.

[Guest]

E.T. that deal was for this season, the next two seasons (2007,2008) Navy has a deal with the Poinsetta Bowl in San Diego.

However, Army is in talks to sign a similar deal with the MCCB for those years. (They haven't been to a bowl since 1996)

In 2009, expect an all out bidding war for Navy, with several bowls getting involved. They brings fans that smaller bowl games only dream of.

ET - Joe is right.

However, I would add that I don't believe Army would bring the same bowl crowds as Navy... in part because of their lack of success on the football field.  I would almost say that I don't think Army would win six games even with the bowl contract.