Bowl Analysis -- Detailed by Conference -- Week 11

[Jim Johnson]

Bowl Analysis

56 eligible teams for 64 bowl slots

"Eligible" = 6 wins // "Ineligible" = 7 losses

Big East conference - 6 Slots - 6 Teams Projected to be Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Pittsburgh, Louisville, Rutgers, West Virginia, South Florida

Need 1 Win:

    Cincinnati (Rut, @ UConn)

Need 2 Wins:

    Connecticut (@ Syr, Cincy, @ Lou)

Bowl Ineligible: Syracuse

Need 1 Loss: NONE

Need 2 Losses:

    Connecticut (@ Syr, Cincy, @ Lou)

    Cincinnati (Rut, @ UConn)

Jim's Projections:

BCS (Sugar) - West Virignia

Gator - Rutgers

Texas - Louisville

Meineke - Navy

International - Pittsburgh

Birmingham - South Florida

Motor City - Cincinnati

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Atlantic Coast Conference - 8 Slots - 8 Teams Projected to be Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Clemson, Wake Forest, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Maryland

Need 1 Win:

    Miami (FL) (@ UVa, BC)

    Florida State (W Mich, Florida)

Need 2 Wins:

    Virginia (Miami, @ Va Tech)

Bowl Ineligible: Duke, North Carolina, NC State

Need 1 Loss:

    Virginia (Miami, @ Va Tech)

Need 2 Losses:

    Miami (FL) (@ UVa, BC)

    Florida State (W Mich, Florida)

Jim's Projections:

BCS (Orange Bowl) - Georgia Tech

Chik-Fil-A - Wake Forest

Gator - Boston College

Champs - Virginia Tech

Music City - Clemson

Meineke - Maryland

Emerald - Miami

MPC Computers - Florida State

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Big Ten Conference - 7 Slots - 6 Teams Projected to be Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Penn State, Iowa, Purdue

Need 1 Win:

    Indiana (Purdue)

    Minnesota (Iowa)

Bowl Ineligible: Illinois, Northwestern, Michigan State

Need 1 Loss:

    Minnesota (Iowa)

    Indiana (@ Purdue)

Jim's Projections:

BCS (National Championship, Rose Bowl) - Ohio State, Michigan

Capitol 1 - Wisconsin

Outback - Penn State

Alamo - Purdue

Champs - Iowa

Insight - OPEN (Northern Illinois)

Motor City - OPEN (Cincinnati)

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Big Twelve Conference - 8 Slots - 8 Teams Projected to be Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Nebraska, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Kansas State, Oklahoma State

Need 1 Win:

    Kansas (Kan St, @ Mizzou)

Need 2 Wins:

Bowl Ineligible: Colorado, Iowa State, Baylor

Need 1 Loss: NONE

Need 2 Losses:

    Kansas (Kan St, @ Mizzou)

Jim's Projections:

BCS (Fiesta) - Texas

Cotton - Oklahoma

Holiday - Nebraska

Alamo - Texas A&M

Sun - Mizzou

Insight - Kansas State

Independence - Ok State

Texas - Texas Tech

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Pacific Ten Conference - 6 Slots - 6 Teams Projected to be Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Southern Cal, California, Oregon, Washington State, Oregon State, Arizona State

Need 1 Win:

    Arizona (@ Oregon, ASU)

    UCLA (@ ASU, USC)

Bowl Ineligible: Stanford, Washington

Need 1 Loss: NONE

Need 2 Losses:

    Arizona (@ Oregon, ASU)

    UCLA (@ ASU, USC)

Jim's Projections:

BCS (Rose) - USC

Holiday - California

Sun - Oregon

Vegas - Oregon St

Emerald - Washington St.

Hawaii - Arizona State

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Southeastern Conference - 8 Slots - 9 Teams Projected to be Eligible

Bowl Eligible: LSU, Florida, Auburn, Tennessee, Georgia, Arkansas, Alabama, Kentucky

Need 1 Win:

    South Carolina (Miss St, @ Clemson)

Bowl Ineligible: Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

Need 1 Loss: NONE

Need 2 Losses:

    South Carolina (Miss St, @ Clemson)

Jim's Projections:

BCS (National Championship, Sugar) - Florida, Arkansas

Capitol 1 - Auburn

Cotton - LSU

Outback - Tennessee

Chick-Fil-A - Georgia

Music City - Alabama

Liberty - Kentucky

Independence - South Carolina

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Conference USA - 5 Slots - 6 Teams Projected to be Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Tulsa, Houston, East Carolina, Southern Mississippi

Need 1 Win:

    Rice (ECU, SMU)

    Southern Methodist (Tulsa, @ Rice)

    UTEP (@ Marshall, Memphis)

Need 2 Wins:

    Marshall (UTEP, So Miss)

Bowl Ineligible: Memphis, UCF, Alabama-Birmingham, Tulane

Need 1 Loss:

    Marshall (UTEP, So Miss)

Need 2 Losses:

    Rice (ECU, SMU)

    Southern Methodist (Tulsa, @ Rice)

    UTEP (@ Marshall, Memphis)

Jim's Projections:

Liberty - Houston

GMAC - Tulsa

Birmingham - Sothern Mississippi

Armed Forces - UTEP

New Orleans -  East Carolina

No Bowl - Southern Methodist/Rice Winner

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Mid-American Conference - 3 Slots - 5 Teams Projected to be Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Ohio, Western Michigan, Central Michigan

Need 1 Win:

    Akron (@ Ohio, W Mich)

    Kent State (E Mich, @ Ball St)

    Northern Illinois (C Mich, @ E Mich)

Need 2 Wins:

    Bowling Green (Miami-OH, @ Toledo)

    Toldeo (Ball St, Bowl Grn)

Bowl Ineligible: Miami (OH), Buffalo, Eastern Michigan, Ball State

Need 1 Loss:

    Toldeo (Ball St, Bowl Grn)

    Bowling Green (Miami-OH, @ Toledo)

Need 2 Losses:

    Akron (@ Ohio, W Mich)

    Kent State (E Mich, @ Ball St)

    Northern Illinois (C Mich, @ E Mich)

Jim's Projections:

Motor City - Central Michigan

GMAC - Ohio

International - Western Michigan

Insight - Northern Illinois

Poinsettia - Kent State

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Mountain West Conference - 4 Slots - 5 Teams Projected to be Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Brigham Young, TCU, Utah

Need 1 Win:

    New Mexico (@ BYU, San Diego St)

    Wyoming (@ UNLV)

Need 2 Wins:

    Colorado State (TCU, @ San Diego St)

    Air Force (Utah, @ UNLV, @ TCU)

Bowl Ineligible: UNLV, San Diego State

Need 1 Loss:

    Wyoming (@ UNLV)

    Colorado State (TCU, @ San Diego St)

Need 2 Losses:

    Air Force (Utah, @ UNLV, @ TCU)

    New Mexico (@ BYU, San Diego St)

Jim's Projections:

Las Vegas - BYU

Poinsettia - Utah

Armed Forces - TCU

New Mexico - New Mexico

No Bowl - Wyoming

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Western Athletic Confernece - 3 Slots - 4 Teams Projected to be Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Boise State (@ San Jose St, Utah St, @ Nevada), Hawaii, Nevada, San Jose State

Need 1 Win: NONE

Need 2 Wins:

    Idaho (@ Fresno St, San Jose St)

Need 3 Wins: NONE

Bowl Ineligible: Utah State, Fresno State, New Mexico State, Louisiana Tech

Need 1 Loss:

    Idaho (@ Fresno St, San Jose St)

Jim's Projections:

BCS (Fiesta) - Boise State

MPC Computers - Nevada

New Mexico - San Jose St

Hawaii - Hawaii

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Sun Belt - 1 Slot - 3 Teams Projected to be Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Middle Tennesee State

Need 1 Win:

    Arkansas State (@ Troy, @ LA-Laf)

    Troy (Ark St, @ Mid Ten St, @ FIU)

Need 2 Wins:

    Louisiana-Lafayette (@ FIU, Ark St, LA-Mon)

Bowl Ineligible: Florida International, Louisiana-Monroe, North Texas, Florida Atlantic

Need 1 Loss: NONE

Need 2 Losses:

    Arkansas State (@ Troy, @ LA-Laf)

    Louisiana-Lafayette (@ FIU, Ark St, LA-Mon)

Jim's Projections:

New Orleans - Middle Tennessee State

No Bowl - Arkansas State

No Bowl - Louisiana-Lafayette

No Bowl - Troy

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I-A Indepenents

Bowl Eligible: Notre Dame, Navy

Bowl Ineligible: Temple, Army

Jim's Projections:

BCS (Orange Bowl) - Notre Dame

Meineke - Navy

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Projected Open Bowl Slots

Poinsettia [At Large Slot] - Army failed to get to 6 wins, therefore this is an open slot.

Motor City [big Ten Slot] - The Big Ten won't have enough eligible teams.

Insight [big Ten Slot] - The Big Ten won't have enough teams because both Michigan and Ohio State will get BCS bowls.

Projected Left Over Teams

Cincinnati

Southern Methodist/Rice winner

Kent State

Northern Illinois

Wyoming

Arkansas State

Louisiana Lafayette

Projected BCS At-Large Teams

Notre Dame

Boise State

Michigan/Ohio State Loser

SEC Runner-Up (Florida/Arkansas Loser)

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Additional Notes

All Big East slots would be filled if two Big East teams get BCS bids, which will take a Boise State loss, as well as a Cal win over USC in the Pac 10.

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NCAA Bylaws

30.9.2 Contest Status. [i-A] A contest shall be licensed only if it serves the purpose of providing a national contest between deserving winning teams. A “deserving winning team†shall be defined as one that has won a minimum of six games against Division I-A opponents and that has more wins than losses. Tie games do not count in determining a team’s won-lost record. Further, when forfeiture of a regular-season football victory is required by the Committee on Infractions, a conference or self-imposed by an institution as a result of a violation of NCAA rules, neither of the competing institutions may count that contest in satisfying the definition of a “deserving winning team.†(Revised: 10/18/89, 10/12/93, 4/20/99)

30.9.2.1 Exception  12 Game Season. An institution with a record of six wins and six losses may be selected for participation in a bowl game under the following circumstances: (Adopted: 4/27/06 effective 8/1/06)

(a) The institution or its conference has a primary contractual affiliation, which existed prior to the first contest of the applicable season, with the sponsoring bowl organization. In the case of a conference contractual affiliation, all conference teams with winning records must be placed in one of the contracted bowl games before any institution with a record of six wins and six losses may be placed in a contracted bowl game. There shall be no contingency agreements with other sponsoring bowl organizations intended to enable an institution with a record of six wins and six losses to become eligible for those contests; or

( All contractual affiliations per Bylaw 30.9.2.1-(a) have been fulfilled and all institutions with winning records have received bowl invitations (either through a contractual affiliation or as an a tlarge selection).

(Emphasis added.)

[Bull Martin]

**** them crumby boise state broncos!!!!  I was really hoping they'd lose!

[T-Man]

good job jim..  I think you are right on the ball

[BullyPulpit]

Great analysis Jim, except for one thing.....You have three teams going to the Motor City Bowl (Cincy, Ark. State, and Central Mich). While I think that would make for an interesting game, I do not think that is allowed.  

[Guest]

Great analysis Jim, except for one thing.....You have three teams going to the Motor City Bowl (Cincy, Ark. State, and Central Mich). While I think that would make for an interesting game, I do not think that is allowed.  

Corrected, thanks.

A slight glitch.

[MechanicalBull]

Thanks Jim.

WVU in NC game?  After yesterday's upsets anything could happen.

[windbane]

I' not sure if Arkansas would make a BCS at-large if they lost the SEC championship to UF.  I think a 2nd big east team would have a shot if 2 of them win out from here on.  UF might lose to FSU still as well (despite FSU being shut out by wake).

[Mag Pie]

WV, Mich and OSU to the National Championship game?

I still think BSU will lose...in that scenario...who would get in?

[Guest]

If BSU loses, you can almost count on a 2nd Big East team getting that bid...

... and that means USF will be heading to Texas.

[T-Man]

Jim cbssports line has  Lousiville, Rutgers, and ND playing in BCS and they still have USF going to Birmingham... (They have WVU in Emerald, Pitt in Texas, and no big east in Gator bowl..)