Bowl Analysis -- Detailed by Conference -- Week 10

[Jim Johnson]

Bowl Analysis

50 eligible teams for 64 bowl slots

"Eligible" = 6 wins // "Ineligible" = 7 losses

Big East conference - 6 Slots - 7 Teams Projected to be Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Pittsburgh, Louisville, Rutgers, West Virginia, South Florida

Need 1 Win:

    Cincinnati (@ WVU, Rut, @ UConn)

Need 2 Wins: NONE

Need 3 Wins:

    Connecticut (Pitt, @ Syr, Cincy, @ Lou)

    Syracuse (@ USF, U Conn, @ Rut)

Bowl Ineligible: NONE

Need 1 Loss:

    Syracuse (@ USF, U Conn, @ Rut)

Need 2 Losses: NONE

    Connecticut (Pitt, @ Syr, Cincy, @ Lou)

Jim's Projections:

BCS (National Championship) - Louisville

Gator - West Virignia

Texas - Rutgers

Meineke - Navy

International - Pittsburgh

Birmingham - South Florida

Motor City - Cincinnati

---

Atlantic Coast Conference - 8 Slots - 7 Teams Projected to be Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Clemson, Wake Forest, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Maryland

Need 1 Win:

    Miami (FL) (@ Md, @ UVa, BC)

    Florida State (Wake, W Mich, Florida)

Need 2 Wins:

    Virginia (Miami, @ Va Tech)

Need 3 Wins:

    NC State (@ Clemson, @ UNC, East Carolina)

Bowl Ineligible: Duke, North Carolina

Need 1 Loss:

    Virginia (Miami, @ Va Tech)

    NC State (@ Clemson, @ UNC, East Carolina)

Need 2 Losses:

Jim's Projections:

BCS (Orange Bowl) - Georgia Tech

Chik-Fil-A - Wake Forest

Gator - Boston College

Champs - Miami

Music City - Clemson

Meineke - Maryland

Emerald - Virginia Tech

MPC Computers - Florida State

---

Big Ten Conference - 7 Slots - 7 Teams Projected to be Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Penn State, Iowa, Purdue

Need 1 Win:

    Indiana (Mich, @ Purdue)

Need 2 Wins:

    Michigan State (Minn, @ Penn State)

    Minnesota (@ Mich St, Iowa)

Need 3 Wins:

Bowl Ineligible: Illinois, Northwestern

Need 1 Loss:

    Minnesota (@ Mich St, Iowa)

    Michigan State (Minn, @ Penn State)

Need 2 Losses:

    Indiana (Mich, @ Purdue)

Jim's Projections:

BCS (National Championship, Rose Bowl) - Ohio State, Michigan

Capitol 1 - Wisconsin

Outback - Penn State

Alamo - Iowa

Champs - Purdue

Insight - OPEN (Northern Illinois)

Motor City - OPEN (Cincinnati)

---

Big Twelve Conference - 8 Slots - 8 Teams Projected to be Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Nebraska, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Kansas State

Need 1 Win:

    Oklahoma State (@ Texas, Baylor, @ Texas Tech, Okla)

    Kansas (Kan St, @ Mizzou)

Need 2 Wins:

    Baylor (@ Ok St, Okla)

Bowl Ineligible: Colorado, Iowa State

Need 1 Loss:

    Baylor (@ Ok St, Okla)

Need 2 Losses:

    Kansas (@ Iowa St, Kan St, @ Mizzou)

Jim's Projections:

BCS (Sugar) - Texas

Cotton - Nebraska

Holiday - Oklahoma

Alamo - Texas A&M

Sun - Texas Tech

Insight - Mizzou

Independence - Kansas State

Texas - Ok State

---

Pacific Ten Conference - 6 Slots - 6 Teams Projected to be Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Southern Cal, California, Oregon, Washington State, Oregon State

Need 1 Win:

    Arizona State (Was St, UCLA, @ Arizona)

Need 2 Wins:

    Washington (Stanford, @ Wash St)

    UCLA (Ore St, @ ASU, USC)

    Arizona (Cal, @ Oregon, ASU)

Need 3 Wins:

Bowl Ineligible: Stanford

Need 1 Loss:

    Washington (Stanford, @ Wash St)

Need 2 Losses:

    Arizona (@ Wash St, Cal, @ Oregon, ASU)

    UCLA (Ore St, @ ASU, USC)

Jim's Projections:

BCS (Rose) - California

Holiday - USC

Sun - Oregon

Vegas - Washington St.

Emerald - Oregon St

Hawaii - Arizona State

---

Southeastern Conference - 8 Slots - 8 Teams Projected to be Eligible

Bowl Eligible: LSU, Florida, Auburn, Tennessee, Georgia, Arkansas, Alabama

Need 1 Win:

    South Carolina (Arkansas, Florida, Miss St, @ Clemson)

    Kentucky (Vandy, LA-Monroe, @ Tenn)

Need 2 Wins:

    Vanderbilt (@ KY, Tenn)

Need 3 Wins: NONE

Bowl Ineligible: Mississippi, Mississippi State

Need 1 Loss:

    Vanderbilt (@ KY, Tenn)

Need 2 Losses: NONE

Jim's Projections:

BCS (Sugar, Fiesta) - Florida, Auburn

Capitol 1 - Tennessee

Cotton - LSU

Outback - Georgia

Chick-Fil-A - Arkansas

Music City - Alabama

Liberty - South Carolina

Independence - Kentucky

---

Conference USA - 5 Slots - 5 Teams Projected to be Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Tulsa, Houston

Need 1 Win:

    Southern Methodist (Houston, Tulsa, @ Rice)

    East Carolina (Marshall, @ Rice, @ NC State)

Need 2 Wins:

    Southern Mississippi (@ Memphis, Tulane, UAB, Marshall)

    UTEP (@ UAB, @ Marshall, Memphis)

    Rice (@ Tulsa, ECU, SMU)

    Marshall (@ ECU, UTEP, So Miss)

Need 3 Wins:

    Alabama-Birmingham (UTEP, So Miss, @ UCF)

    Tulane (So Miss, UCF, @ Tulsa)

Bowl Ineligible: Memphis, UCF

Need 1 Loss:

    Alabama-Birmingham (UTEP, So Miss, @ UCF)

    Tulane (So Miss, UCF, @ Tulsa)

Need 2 Losses:

    Marshall (@ ECU, UTEP, So Miss)

    Rice (@ Tulsa, ECU, SMU)

    UTEP (@ UAB, @ Marshall, Memphis)

Jim's Projections:

Liberty - Houston

GMAC - Tulsa

Birmingham - East Carolina

Armed Forces - UTEP

New Orleans -  Sothern Mississippi

No Bowl - Southern Methodist

---

Mid-American Conference - 3 Slots - 5 Teams Projected to be Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Ohio, Western Michigan, Central Michigan

Need 1 Win:

    Kent State (@ Va Tech, E Mich, @ Ball St)

    Northern Illinois (Toledo, C Mich, @ E Mich)

Need 2 Wins:

    Bowling Green (Miami-OH, @ Toledo)

    Akron (Buff, @ Ohio, W Mich)

Need 3 Wins:

    Toldeo (@ No Ill, Ball St, Bowl Grn)

Bowl Ineligible: Miami (OH), Buffalo, Eastern Michigan, Ball State

Need 1 Loss:

    Toldeo (@ No Ill, Ball St, Bowl Grn)

    Bowling Green (Miami-OH, @ Toledo)

Need 2 Losses:

    Akron (Buff, @ Ohio, W Mich)

Jim's Projections:

Motor City - C Mich/W Mich Winner

GMAC - Ohio

International - C Mich/W Mich Loser

Poinsettia - Kent St

Insight - Northern Illinois

---

Mountain West Conference - 4 Slots - 4 Teams Projected to be Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Brigham Young, TCU

Need 1 Win:

    Utah (Col St, @ Air Force, BYU)

    New Mexico (TCU, @ BYU, San Diego St)

    Wyoming (@ BYU, @ UNLV)

Need 2 Wins:

    Colorado State (@ Utah, TCU, @ San Diego ST)

    Air Force (Notre Dame, Utah, @ UNLV, @ TCU)

Need 3 Wins: NONE

Bowl Ineligible: UNLV, San Diego State

Need 1 Loss: NONE

Need 2 Losses:

    Wyoming (San Deigo St, @ BYU, @ UNLV)

    Colorado State (@ Utah, TCU, @ San Diego ST)

Jim's Projections:

Las Vegas - BYU

Poinsettia - Utah

Armed Forces - TCU

New Mexico - New Mexico

No Bowl - Wyoming

---

Western Athletic Confernece - 3 Slots - 4 Teams Projected to be Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Boise State (@ San Jose St, Utah St, @ Nevada), Hawaii, Nevada, San Jose State

Need 1 Win: NONE

Need 2 Wins:

    Idaho (@ Fresno St, San Jose St)

Need 3 Wins: NONE

Bowl Ineligible: Utah State, Fresno State, New Mexico State

Need 1 Loss:

    Louisiana Tech (@ San Jose St, @ North Texas, @ Hawaii, Nevada, Fresno St, @ New Mex St)

    Idaho (@ Fresno St, San Jose St)

Need 2 Losses:

Jim's Projections:

BCS (Fiesta) - Boise State

MPC Computers - Nevada

New Mexico - San Jose St

Hawaii - Hawaii

---

Sun Belt - 1 Slot - 3 Teams Projected to be Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Middle Tennesee State

Need 1 Win:

    Arkansas State (Mid Ten St, @ Troy, @ LA-Laf)

Need 2 Wins:

    Louisiana-Lafayette (No Texas, @ FIU, Ark St, LA-Mon)

    Troy (@ FAU, Ark St, @ Mid Ten St, @ FIU)

Need 3 Wins:

    Florida Atlantic (Troy, @ No Texas, FIU)

Bowl Ineligible: Florida International, Louisiana-Monroe, North Texas

Need 1 Loss:

    Florida Atlantic (Troy, @ No Texas, FIU)

Need 2 Losses: NONE

Jim's Projections:

New Orleans - Arkansas State/Middle Tennessee State Winner

Motor City - Middle Tennessee State/Arkansas State Loser

No Bowl - Louisiana-Lafayette

---

I-A Indepenents

Bowl Eligible: Notre Dame, Navy

Bowl Ineligible: Temple, Army

Jim's Projections:

BCS (Orange Bowl) - Notre Dame

Meineke - Navy

---

Projected Open Bowl Slots

Poinsettia [At Large Slot] - Army could take this slot if they get to 6 wins, otherwise it will be open.

Motor City [big Ten Slot] - The Big Ten won't have enough eligible teams.

Insight [big Ten Slot] - The Big Ten won't have enough teams because both Michigan and Ohio State will get BCS bowls.

Projected Left Over Teams

Cincinnati

Southern Methodist

Kent State

Northern Illinois

Wyoming

Middle Tennessee State/Arkansas State Loser

Louisiana Lafayette

Projected BCS At-Large Teams

Notre Dame

Boise State

Michigan/Ohio State Loser

SEC Runner-Up (Florida/Auburn Loser)

---

Additional Notes

The Pac 10 slot in the Hawaii bowl could be open if two Pac 10 teams get BCS bids, which would probably only happen with a Boise State loss.

All Big East slots would be filled if two Big East teams get BCS bids, which will take a Boise State loss, as well as a Cal win over USC in the Pac 10.

---

A 6-6 South Florida or Cincinnati COULD be on the outside looking in.

30.9.2 Contest Status. [i-A] A contest shall be licensed only if it serves the purpose of providing a national contest between deserving winning teams. A “deserving winning team†shall be defined as one that has won a minimum of six games against Division I-A opponents and that has more wins than losses. Tie games do not count in determining a team’s won-lost record. Further, when forfeiture of a regular-season football victory is required by the Committee on Infractions, a conference or self-imposed by an institution as a result of a violation of NCAA rules, neither of the competing institutions may count that contest in satisfying the definition of a “deserving winning team.†(Revised: 10/18/89, 10/12/93, 4/20/99)

30.9.2.1 Exception  12 Game Season. An institution with a record of six wins and six losses may be selected for participation in a bowl game under the following circumstances: (Adopted: 4/27/06 effective 8/1/06)

(a) The institution or its conference has a primary contractual affiliation, which existed prior to the first contest of the applicable season, with the sponsoring bowl organization. In the case of a conference contractual affiliation, all conference teams with winning records must be placed in one of the contracted bowl games before any institution with a record of six wins and six losses may be placed in a contracted bowl game. There shall be no contingency agreements with other sponsoring bowl organizations intended to enable an institution with a record of six wins and six losses to become eligible for those contests; or

( All contractual affiliations per Bylaw 30.9.2.1-(a) have been fulfilled and all institutions with winning records have received bowl invitations (either through a contractual affiliation or as an a tlarge selection).

(Emphasis added.)

[bullsmania]

Thanks for the info Jim.  I am not sure if I want to go to Birmingham.  Legion field sucked when we played Alabama there.  I have not researched the field yet to see if there have been any improvements, but there must have been for them to have been awarded a bowl game.  I know it's an easier trip but the stadium sucked.

[SkypointBull]

I think we would travel best for the BHam bowl. Crappy city and stadium, but there should good BBQ and cold beer.

[bullsmania]

I but there should good BBQ and cold beer.

Yes, I do remember having some of that in 5 Points, Matt.  

Good to see you Saturday and thanks for the beer!

[T-Man]

gene face it birmingham will want us more than toronto (pitt or cincy)

[SkypointBull]

I but there should good BBQ and cold beer.

Yes, I do remember having some of that in 5 Points, Matt.  

Good to see you Saturday and thanks for the beer!

Anytime Gene.

[BullsFanInTX]

If I am reading this correctly, it states there will be 7 BE teams eligible.  There won't be 7, SU and UConn won't be bowl eligible unless they pull off a miricle.

[BullsFanInTX]

Unless that included Navy stealing one of our slots.

[Guest]

Unless that included Navy stealing one of our slots.

I was counting Navy as one of our teams for stealing the Meineke slot... but you are right that there are only 6 truly Big East teams that could be eligible.

[RandyGator]

Jim

Excellent info .... Not sure I agree with all, but an excellent analysis.

If we get a bid it will probably be B'ham.  I do hope so as this will allow more of us to travel and make a good showing.

I may even be able to get a little hunting in on my way up and/or back. ;D ;D