WVU-Ville Winner Might Play for All the Marbles

[USFPDiddy]

lurkle, i really wish you'd get off this SEC love fest.  the SEC teams are good but they are only all ranked so high because they were ranked high in the preseason.  when they all beat each other they just claim that the conference is just that hard, and yet arkansas got blown out by USC, didnt they?  so what they scheduled USC if they didnt beat them, and oregon state did.  louisville scheduling Miami can't be discounted just because years after the game is scheduled miami happens to have a down year.  and they beat miami without their top RB and QB.

i hope all these high ranked SEC teams start losing games to vandy and ole miss.  then we can claim that those teams should be ranked.  it's ridiculous every year.  they arent all uber-elite teams.  they are pretty good and get nice preseason rankings that enable them to move up until they play each other and then they claim that they are only losing games because everyone is so good.

florida lost to a team that couldnt score offensively on them and they are the highest ranked BCS SEC team.  i dont buy it.

Ill take a proven commodity over speculation any day but thats just me, and im not asking you to do the same its just MHO.  You can call it a love fest all you want but its no more of a love fest than everyone  who is all about the BE who has not played a team that is good this season.  If you want to look at the facts more SEC teams are ranked the conference is ranked higher in the computer polls and they will play more ranked teams than the top BE schools.  Those are facts that are indesputable not just someones opinion and thats where i base my view on.  Who knows maybe WVU or UL will blow the doors off of everyone left on their schedules and show me that they are for real but until i see them tested against a good team i wont change my view on them as possibly being teams that are like the bill snyder K-state teams that played cream puffs all year then lost when it counted as far as bowl or conference championshios are concerned.  Also you know why SEC teams get better preseason rankings, look at recruiting class rankings, bowl history, conference records over the past few years and you will see where those rankings come from.   Your acting like the people who make the polls just say well we need some SEC teams lets throw LSU , AU, and UF in the top 10 for S's and G's.  Respect is earned not just given and if the BE can keep having a couple teams that compete for a spot in the NC game year in and year out those programs will gain the same respect as teams in the SEC Big 10, and Pac 10 when it comes to preseaon polls.  You have to remember even a few years back when Miami was still in the BE everyone used to critcize their schedule for being so much weaker than the other major conferences and giving them an easy path to undefeated season as long as they could get by FSU.  The BE and USF are in the same boat in alot of ways both are on the come up when it comes to being a major power in the conference wars/college football and your going to have to earn your respevt with year in and year out success.  If BE teams keep winning and recruit well you will see more and more of them in the preseason polls.  

Rankings are just speculation, by the way.  Comparing conference records is useless.  If you want to see how good a conference is, look at its out of conference record.  That only tells PART of the story, but it IS objective.  Even within the SEC the rankings are a tad...wrong.  Auburn started out high preseason, Arkansas didn't.  Arkansas beats Auburn head to head and has the same # of losses, and is still behind.

Was 1998 Marshall undeserving of a shot at the NC?  In hindsight, maybe not.  There were some very talented players on that roster.

You can spout all the hot air you want, but last year the SEC had 6 teams with winning records, 1 more than the PAC-10.  Also, they had one more ranked team than the pac-10 if I recall correctly.  Does that make the SEC harder?  Not necessarily, considering that they also get an extra bottom feeder or two.

Everyone whines when this or that conference comes out on top in computer ratings.  Why?  Because computer ratings are OBJECTIVE, given a set of inputs.  If the SEC was really that awesome, wouldn't they be a clear favorite given the inputs used for the computers?

I'm not saying the computers are always right, but this brings up a key point: the SEC isn't necessarily the best conference.  People attach way too much value to names.  There should be no preseason rankings.  

I would be tempted to see how polls would wind up if you replaced each team's name with a number from 1-119, and voters only saw that team number and its score vs another team #.  Early in the year, it wouldn't be very accurate.  By the end of the season, you'd have the most objective human poll ever.  

[USFMikeB]

I'd be quite worried if WVU played for all the marbles. They've looked barely decent against several mediocre teams this year. Sending them up against OSU or Michigan in the National Championship game would be a spanking that the Big East doesn't need right now. That goes for Louisville too, though I tend to think they're deeper as a team than the core of WVU's wonderboys.

Disagree completely.  Did you watch UM against Northwestern.  They were less than impressive.

I'm not sure what you mean - what do UM or Northwestern have to do with WVU playing OSU or Michigan?

UM isn't just Miami.  UM means Michigan too.  And no, they didn't beat the stuffing out of Northwestern so easily.  That was also the first game of the season.  Saying Ohio State would blow out WVU and make the BE look bad is fine, except that Ohio State has blown everyone out so far.  They won by several TD's AT Texas.  I'd rather see UL take a crack at it than a repeat of that mismatch.  UT didn't *barely* lose.

Michigan just played Northwestern this weekend, winning by two touchdowns.

[Joe]

Right now Florida is .07 points (skin of teeth) behind 3rd ranked WVU in the BCS, despite being ranked 7th in both polls and still having 3 games that will improve their SOS left (if they win out).

I think an element that many are forgetting is that almost all of the computer SOS isn't just who YOU play, but who YOUR OPPONENTS play.

As a result the BE does have a lot of nice wins, but there is really no great signature win for the conference (thus the reason they're still using the WVU win over UGA). Maryland is nice, but it's not a great win. Miami still hasn't beaten a team with a D-IA win, so as nice as it was at the time, it means SQUAT now.

It's going to be very very close with about 6-7 teams potentially threatening WVU in the end.

[USFPDiddy]

I'd be quite worried if WVU played for all the marbles. They've looked barely decent against several mediocre teams this year. Sending them up against OSU or Michigan in the National Championship game would be a spanking that the Big East doesn't need right now. That goes for Louisville too, though I tend to think they're deeper as a team than the core of WVU's wonderboys.

Disagree completely.  Did you watch UM against Northwestern.  They were less than impressive.

I'm not sure what you mean - what do UM or Northwestern have to do with WVU playing OSU or Michigan?

UM isn't just Miami.  UM means Michigan too.  And no, they didn't beat the stuffing out of Northwestern so easily.  That was also the first game of the season.  Saying Ohio State would blow out WVU and make the BE look bad is fine, except that Ohio State has blown everyone out so far.  They won by several TD's AT Texas.  I'd rather see UL take a crack at it than a repeat of that mismatch.  UT didn't *barely* lose.

Michigan just played Northwestern this weekend, winning by two touchdowns.

My bad, got confused with Vanderbilt, which was their first game of the season.  Mich doesn't seem to blow a whole lot of teams out, but their games don't seem to have their outcome in doubt very often either.

Also, if WVU wins out they will easily jump a lot of teams in the computer rankings.  They've had a soft schedule so far, but it will improve significantly over the remainder of the season.  It won't be great, but it will be enough to move them up quite a bit in terms of SOS.

[Bull Dozer]

I'd be quite worried if WVU played for all the marbles. They've looked barely decent against several mediocre teams this year. Sending them up against OSU or Michigan in the National Championship game would be a spanking that the Big East doesn't need right now. That goes for Louisville too, though I tend to think they're deeper as a team than the core of WVU's wonderboys.

Disagree completely.  Did you watch UM against Northwestern.  They were less than impressive.

I'm not sure what you mean - what do UM or Northwestern have to do with WVU playing OSU or Michigan?

Yeah they're a classic ball control and defense team, they may not blow you out but they beat you up and have most teams calling for uncle by the end of the game.  If both teams contiune to go unbeaten till the end of the year that OSU game it will be like having 2 NC games.  

UM isn't just Miami.  UM means Michigan too.  And no, they didn't beat the stuffing out of Northwestern so easily.  That was also the first game of the season.  Saying Ohio State would blow out WVU and make the BE look bad is fine, except that Ohio State has blown everyone out so far.  They won by several TD's AT Texas.  I'd rather see UL take a crack at it than a repeat of that mismatch.  UT didn't *barely* lose.

Michigan just played Northwestern this weekend, winning by two touchdowns.

My bad, got confused with Vanderbilt, which was their first game of the season.  Mich doesn't seem to blow a whole lot of teams out, but their games don't seem to have their outcome in doubt very often either.

[RMF5630]

WVU needs a very specific set of events to happen to get into the NC game.  

In the Big East, they need to beat Lousville AND have Lousiville win out AND Rutgers only lose only to Louisville and WVU.  No fluke upsets.

In the SEC, they need the SEC teams to lose, which could happen. UF has to go to Tallahassee to play against an unranked FSU and Auburn needs to play a Alabama. Neither one of those games will add points and could be an upset.  SEC is as good as it is going to get, not alot of points left to grab and some rivalry games that could screw it up.

In the Big 12, Texas play A&M and a lower ranked team from the north which will hurt.  No points to pick up for either game, but can lose points.  

In the PAC-10, USC has the roughest road and most points to pick up having to play Oregon, Cal, ND, and UCLA.  That is a tough road and they can pick up some points and they get them at home.

I would say that USC holds its destiny in its hands more than any other team because they get to play the toughest opponents.  WVU 2nd because of RU and Louisville.  SEC 3rd bad rivalry games not alot of point unless Auburn/FL win out and the Big 12 can only lose points/position.

I see WVU & OSU going at it.  WVU losing and RichRod getting out of dodge because he knows the stars aligned for him this year.

[smazza]

my prediction is that big east fans will be disappointed at end of the day

sec one loss team,texas one loss team,usc one loss team or cal one loss team deserve to be in NC game over any big east team

[bulls96go]

wvu/ul should go if they beat BCS #3/#5 and BCS #12 RU that should improved sos late in the year.

[windbane]

I am fully of the belief that if UF, Texas, or Auburn win out they will jump WVU if they win out. WVU's schedule is really going to harm them, and those three teams could have the conference title game to put their SOS over the top.

but mechical bull posted:

Current

Rank      Team         Past Opp Wining %               Fut Opp Wining%

6      Florida          .69                                          .48

18      WVU               .44                                           .74

24      UL                .48                                            .72

also, computer polls dont just look at SOS and they would be #2 in both polls, which is two-thirds of the BCS ranking.  so, i disagree.

The SOS #'s you have there dont take into consideration a potential SEC title game its just regular season.  Im sure if you add in a aubrun/arkansas there youll see the remaining SOS take a pretty big jump as thats an extra game against a top 10-5 team if both teams win out.  So basically you cant use this to determine SOS in relation to bowl games and BCS because your looking at a situation where you assume both teams win out but your leaving off a game against a highly ranked team.  Your main arguement should be that they will be #2 in the polls not the SOS as you cant argue that unless you dont know the rank of the team UF would play in this scenario in the SEC title game.  

there is no need to know the "rank" of a team that UF will play.  all the above stats show is the SOS of the remaining schedule.  geez, how can you argue that?  sure, UF, if they make it to SEC championship game, would play another team with a good record but im sure that wouldnt completely even out the above stats.

WVU/UL arent very low in the computer polls, and every game from here on out will help them out in SOS and computer polls.  a lot of the 1-loss teams do not have the schedule that WVU/UL/Rutgers has coming up.

[windbane]

lurkle, i really wish you'd get off this SEC love fest.  the SEC teams are good but they are only all ranked so high because they were ranked high in the preseason.  when they all beat each other they just claim that the conference is just that hard, and yet arkansas got blown out by USC, didnt they?  so what they scheduled USC if they didnt beat them, and oregon state did.  louisville scheduling Miami can't be discounted just because years after the game is scheduled miami happens to have a down year.  and they beat miami without their top RB and QB.

i hope all these high ranked SEC teams start losing games to vandy and ole miss.  then we can claim that those teams should be ranked.  it's ridiculous every year.  they arent all uber-elite teams.  they are pretty good and get nice preseason rankings that enable them to move up until they play each other and then they claim that they are only losing games because everyone is so good.

florida lost to a team that couldnt score offensively on them and they are the highest ranked BCS SEC team.  i dont buy it.

Ill take a proven commodity over speculation any day but thats just me, and im not asking you to do the same its just MHO.  You can call it a love fest all you want but its no more of a love fest than everyone  who is all about the BE who has not played a team that is good this season.  If you want to look at the facts more SEC teams are ranked the conference is ranked higher in the computer polls and they will play more ranked teams than the top BE schools.  Those are facts that are indesputable not just someones opinion and thats where i base my view on.  Who knows maybe WVU or UL will blow the doors off of everyone left on their schedules and show me that they are for real but until i see them tested against a good team i wont change my view on them as possibly being teams that are like the bill snyder K-state teams that played cream puffs all year then lost when it counted as far as bowl or conference championshios are concerned.  Also you know why SEC teams get better preseason rankings, look at recruiting class rankings, bowl history, conference records over the past few years and you will see where those rankings come from.   Your acting like the people who make the polls just say well we need some SEC teams lets throw LSU , AU, and UF in the top 10 for S's and G's.  Respect is earned not just given and if the BE can keep having a couple teams that compete for a spot in the NC game year in and year out those programs will gain the same respect as teams in the SEC Big 10, and Pac 10 when it comes to preseaon polls.  You have to remember even a few years back when Miami was still in the BE everyone used to critcize their schedule for being so much weaker than the other major conferences and giving them an easy path to undefeated season as long as they could get by FSU.  The BE and USF are in the same boat in alot of ways both are on the come up when it comes to being a major power in the conference wars/college football and your going to have to earn your respevt with year in and year out success.  If BE teams keep winning and recruit well you will see more and more of them in the preseason polls.  

Rankings are just speculation, by the way.  Comparing conference records is useless.  If you want to see how good a conference is, look at its out of conference record.  That only tells PART of the story, but it IS objective.  Even within the SEC the rankings are a tad...wrong.  Auburn started out high preseason, Arkansas didn't.  Arkansas beats Auburn head to head and has the same # of losses, and is still behind.

Was 1998 Marshall undeserving of a shot at the NC?  In hindsight, maybe not.  There were some very talented players on that roster.

You can spout all the hot air you want, but last year the SEC had 6 teams with winning records, 1 more than the PAC-10.  Also, they had one more ranked team than the pac-10 if I recall correctly.  Does that make the SEC harder?  Not necessarily, considering that they also get an extra bottom feeder or two.

Everyone whines when this or that conference comes out on top in computer ratings.  Why?  Because computer ratings are OBJECTIVE, given a set of inputs.  If the SEC was really that awesome, wouldn't they be a clear favorite given the inputs used for the computers?

I'm not saying the computers are always right, but this brings up a key point: the SEC isn't necessarily the best conference.  People attach way too much value to names.  There should be no preseason rankings.  

I would be tempted to see how polls would wind up if you replaced each team's name with a number from 1-119, and voters only saw that team number and its score vs another team #.  Early in the year, it wouldn't be very accurate.  By the end of the season, you'd have the most objective human poll ever.  

I agree with a lot here.  The Pac-10 and Big-10 were often the "best" conference using computer polls, not that I put much stock in those rankings the last few years because this is the best the pac-10 has been in recent years and yet its always up there on computer polls.  

Without preseason rankings they would certainly be a lot more accurate, but I guess until that happens we'll continue to just rank the "proven commodities" over teams that could be better but dont have the reputation right now.  Oh well.